VIX, 12-Day War, Sept. Coffee; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 25th, 2025

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Take a Look at the VIX

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

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12-Day War; Volatility and THE VIX

The Fragile state of the 12-day war will create more angst in our markets if the ceasefire does not hold. President Trumps impact reaches beyond the tariff wars as more negotiations will be revealed as western leaders meet in the Netherlands the next few days. And as Europe’s NATO leaders gather in The Hague to agree on a historic defense spending target of 5 percent, the answer may come as a surprise.

Rather than doing a market recap today; below is a brief I put together regarding The Volatility Index or simply “The Vix Index”. This instrument is a futures contract traded at the Chicago Board Options Exchange which is the pre-eminent American Stock Option Exchange.

Call your Cannon Broker if you think you would benefit from live or even delayed VIX data on your trading platform.

The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPX℠) call and put options. On a global basis, it is one of the most recognized measures of volatility — widely reported by financial media and closely followed by a variety of market participants as a daily market indicator.

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future with its ebbs and flows.

Choose your opportunities wisely. Today’s market swings were largely back to normal (pre tariff talk normal)

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  Building Permits, EIA Crude oil stocks, New Home Sales

FED Chair Powell Congressional Testimony (Senate) 9:00 am

Earnings: Micron, General Mills

Tariff news: Anything goes!

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The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPX℠) call and put options. On a global basis, it is one of the most recognized measures of volatility — widely reported by financial media and closely followed by a variety of market participants as a daily market indicator.

The inverse can easily be represented by looking at the Daily S&P chart

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Sept. Coffee

September coffee satisfied its second downside PriceCount objective and is consolidating its trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its slide with new sustained lows, the third count would project a possible slide to the 282 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 25th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Copper Prices Surge $6,500 per Contract After Trump’s 25% Tariff Bombshell!

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Markets Highlights on Copper

Copper

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

The big one! It’s that time of the month again: we’re a couple of days from when the Labor Dept. releases its monthly Non-farm payrolls report. It’s widely considered to be one of the most important and influential measures of the U.S. economy and the report is released at 7:30 A.M., Central Time on the first Friday of the month.

Ahead of that, today the ADP National Employment Report showed payrolls increased by 77,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain since July 2024, after rising 186,000 in January. Economists had forecast private employment advancing 140,000.

The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, likely exaggerates the labor market slowdown and has no correlation with the government’s employment report.

 Softs:

Arabica coffee futures rose sharply today with the market heading back up towards recent record highs. May ICE coffee rose almost 5% to $4.1855 per lb. intraday. Traders indicated the market showing signs of resuming its upward trend after suffering a sharp setback which took prices from a record high of $4.2995 on Feb. 11 to a low of $3.6630 a week ago – a ±$23,900 per contract correction! The market was keeping a close watch on the weather in top grower Brazil with hot, dry conditions raising some concerns about the upcoming crop.

Energy:

Crude oil futures settled down for the fourth consecutive session today after U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected build, adding a further headwind as investors worried about OPEC+ plans to increase output in April and U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. April West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down $1.95, or 2.86%, to $66.31 a barrel, its lowest since November ’24. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to proceed with a planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, its first since 2022.

Metals:

Copper

CME/COMEX copper futures soared today following President Donald Trump’s announced 25% tariffs on copper imports during his Tuesday night speech to Congress. May copper rose ±26 cents/lb. (±5.7% as of this blog post – a $6,500 per contract move – to a $4.825/lb. intraday high.

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April Crude Oil

April crude oil is completing its second downside PriceCount objective to the 66.53 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further weakness, the third count would project a possible slide to a new contract low around 62.78. A trade below the October reactionary low would formally negate the remaining unmet upside objectives.

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Daily Levels for March 6th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! Click here for quick and easy instructions.

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Coffee, Cattle, and Crops: Market Swings Amid Powell & CPI Anticipation

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Coffee

Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Movers and Shakers: Tomorrow (CPI) before the open, CSCO After the close

 

Fed Powell’s testimony in the Senate had the market moving today.

Gold started to sell off well before the testimony began, down $25.00 then as Powell spoke @ 10 EST, the market rallied from that point in somewhat of a slough to unchanged, but struggled to breakout and looks to close a shade off yesterday, down 8 bucks. Holding rates for quite some time longer didn’t add fuel to the current rally. Powell testifies tomorrow in the House, same time.

 

The S&P 500 rallied from Powell’s opening remarks 20 points, then fell back at the 2-hour mark to where it began:6070.00 only to rally NEARLY 30 POINTS FROM THERE AFTER THE CONCLUSION. However, they look to close unchanged at the time of this writing. 6088.00.  This was a very tradeable day.

 

After scanning several markets Energies, Bonds, Dollar index. They all finished the day right about where they were prior to Powell’s opening remarks except for the US Dollar, which closed lower as Gold retained some of its luster.

 

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Corn

WASDE was released this morning as well, whose results weighed on domestic Ag row crop prices, Beans down 6 cents, Corn down 7.5-6.25 for old crop, new crop Dec down a penny (will grains in the future be quoted in pennies with the dissolution of the one cent coin?) Wheat down between 2.5 to 7 cents across the board and protein spectrum. Cotton bucked the trend and had a strong rally after the numbers, up .74 basis the May contract.

 

Coffee

As for the softs, Coffee lost some caffeine today, down from its all-time highs, 15 + cents per pound @ 413.45. This drop comes after a strong rally in recent sessions, fueled by supply concerns and robust demand. However, profit-taking and shifting sentiment in the broader commodities market may have contributed to today’s pullback. Traders will be watching for any signs of renewed momentum or further correction in the days ahead, particularly with currency fluctuations and weather patterns in key coffee-growing regions influencing price action. That’s Coffee!

 

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Choose your opportunities wisely.

 

Tomorrow: CPI (Consumer Price Index) before the open, Fed Powell Testimony in the House of Representatives 9 am CST, Fed Bostic 11:00 am CST. Earnings: Cisco After the close, CME Group, before the open

March Feeder Cattle

The January 21st QT Chart of the Day alerted readers that the March feeder cattle chart was approaching its third upside PriceCount objective. After reaching this target area, the chart corrected lower and activated downside PriceCounts in the process. At this point, if you can extend its break with new sustained lows, the second count would project a slide to the 261.59 area.

 

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Daily Levels for February 12th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Hidden Market Trends: Copper Joins Coffee and Gold in Notable Moves

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Coffee Anyone? Gold? Copper?

COFFEE

 

While most day traders focus on markets like mini SP, MICRO NQ, bonds and few others, some of the other markets have made some noticeable moves. Coffee, Gold and now Copper.

 

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March copper is activating upside PriceCount objectives off the January lows. The first count projects a possible run to the 4.80 area which is consistent with a challenge of the fall high.

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Daily Levels for February 11th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Call Now

Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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