The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting tomorrow, July 30, 2025. Market analysts and interest rate traders currently assign a very high probability—over 95%- a pause, with no rate hike or cut anticipated at this meeting.
Economists are expecting the first look at US 2Q 2025 GDP to show the economy grew by +2.4% on quarter over quarter terms, if realized that would be up from the final 1Q report -0.5% contraction. The advanced 2Q 2025 chain weighted price index is expected up +2.3%, and compares with the final 1Q report, up +3.8%. The data will be released at 7:30 am CT Wednesday morning.
The Crude market rally’s hard today on news Trump threatens 100% tariff on China if it continues to buy Russian crude oil. Front month September +$2.77 as of this writing. $2700.00 per contract. Crude has rallied nearly $5.00 bbl since the opening of Sunday evenings session. Yesterday’s OPEC+ maintained its current oil output policy at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, with no changes to production plans.
The JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) emphasized the critical importance of full conformity with agreed production levels, noting uneven compliance among some members.
The US Dollar may have bottomed in the short term as the past week we have seen signs of life. A 2.5% rally from the July 1 lows. The awakening of the dollar is not bullish for our export markets.
Tomorrow:
Econ Data: GDP, FOMC Rate decision, EIA Crude Stocks, Beige book
FED: Rate decision @ 1:00pm, followed by 1:30 press conference.
Earnings: Qualcomm, Meta, Microsoft
Tariff news: Anything goes! |