CPI February Tomorrow Morning!

The Consumer Price Index for February is released tomorrow morning. Although the Fed (rate decision next week) would rather pin their forecasts and create decisions based on the Core PCE, the CPI has created much more market volatility than Core PCE ever has.

Why CPI moves markets more

• Timing: CPI hits about two weeks before PCE, so CPI effectively becomes the market’s first look at monthly inflation; PCE is treated more like a “revision” unless it sharply contradicts CPI.​
• Habit and coordination: Most traders and media still frame “inflation day” around CPI, so liquidity, positioning, and optionality cluster around that release, reinforcing CPI’s impact despite the Fed’s formal preference for PCE.
• Headline profile: CPI typically runs a bit higher than PCE (about 0.4 percentage points on average since 2000), which can make surprises feel more acute and headline‑worthy.
• Policy signal vs. tradable catalyst: The Fed leans on PCE because of its broader coverage and more frequently updated weights, but markets prioritize “flawed data now” over “better data later” and trade the earlier CPI release more aggressively.

Practical trading takeaway

• For short‑term index, vol, and USD trades, CPI is typically the higher‑octane event: implied and realized vol around the release are generally higher, and positioning is more crowded into CPI Day.
• PCE still matters for repricing the path of Fed policy, especially if it diverges meaningfully from CPI, but its average impact on realized equity volatility is smaller and more conditional on surprise magnitude.

While the Iran War and many other geopolitical genuflections effect the perception of supply shortages, energy prices experienced extreme volatility by exploding higher over the last week followed by a severe retracement to date, economists say February’s CPI data was collected before the start of the conflict and won’t reflect the surge in energy prices.

The data generating this release of the CPI is from before the recent conflict in the Middle East broke out, so it’s not going to give us a whole lot of information on how prices are starting to respond to that. That’s going to be a March and April dynamic.

Graphical representations of the recent historical relationships Between CPI and Core CPI then CPI and Core PCE are below.

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Cannon Edge for March 11th

Introducing Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot Above

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

• Current price and daily % change
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November Soybeans

The rally in November Soybeans came close enough to satisfy the third upside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. At this point, IF the chart can resume its move with new sustained highs, we are left with the low percentage fourth count to aim for in the $13.68 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 11th, 2026

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