Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Count ‘em: nine in a row. That’s how many meetings the Federal Reserve has increased its key interest rate. As of today’s .25-point increase, the federal funds rate target range stands at 4.75%-5.00%, the highest level since September 2007. The vote by all 11 members of the Federal Open Market Committee was unanimous. Clearly, the bank runs that toppled Silicon Vally Bank and roiled the banking industry have been front and center in the financial world the last two weeks, but the situation fazed Fed officials little if at all. “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient,” said the prepared policy statement released at 1:00 P.M., Central Time today. Fighting inflation, it seems, remains the Central Bank’s focus.
Metals
On Monday, gold futures (basis April) pierced through $2,000 per ounce intraday for the first time in a year as the U.S. banking crisis spread to Europe with Credit Suisse, a preeminent name in global investment banking, sought help from Switzerland’s central bank and then put itself up for sale. This marked a ±$18,000 per 100-oz. futures contract move in just eight trading sessions from March 9.
Grains
Wheat continued its ±8-month slide from its multi-year spike high above $13/bushel on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to lows not seen since July ’21 as traders see improvement in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions and a lack of significant weather issues across key northern hemisphere wheat producers. The front month May contract closed today at it’s life-of-contract low of $6.22 ¾ per bushel.
Energy
Crude oil continued its almost 9-month decline in prices from over $120 per barrel last June to trade below $65 per barrel (basis May) on Monday, including a ±$15 / $15,000 per contract fall from March 7, scarcely two weeks.
Natural gas basis its May futures contract tested 32-month lows yesterday, threatening to punch through $2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). With the North American winter heating season approaching its end, residential, commercial, and industrial gas demand has been on the decline.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Week Ahead: FOMC, The FED breaks its Silence..
By John Thorpe, Senior broker
There is little doubt traders will be tightly focused on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The release of the meeting statement at 14:00 ET on Wednesday will settle speculation about whether Fed voters will pause interest rate hikes or take rates higher for the eighth meeting in a row. If the Committee raises rates, by how much? Will it be a 25 or 50 basis points?
Powell’s press briefing at 14:30 ET on Wednesday will be the first opportunity for the press to ask of the Fed Chair about recent turmoil in the banking sector. Most of the news became public just as Fed officials entered the communications blackout period for the next rate announcement (midnight, Saturday March 12 through midnight, Thursday, March 23). Unless there was an urgent need to alter the signals previously given about the direction of monetary policy, it is not a topic that Powell would speak about publicly until after the meeting. Powell is likely to get as many questions about the state of the banking industry in the US as he will about the FOMC decision and forecast. My Favorite tool is the CME FedWatch tool.
The bar graphs represent the fed fund futures prices and adjust daily. As of this writing, according to the tool, there is a 28% chance of no change and a 71% chance of .25 increase, although some economists do expect a .50% increase, the market is discounting that faction and focusing on Zero change or a .25 bump. CME FedWatch Tool – CME Group
Beyond the FOMC data this week, we have some housing data that my cause our markets to flinch, Existing home sales tomorrow @ 9:00am CDT. Expectations are for a gentle rise from January’s numbers to 4.17 million units. With initial claims for unemployment on Thursday @7:30 CDT before New Home sales @ 9am CDT. Have a safe trading week, Plan your trade and trade your plan.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The global benchmark for crude oil is fabulous at 40
Take part in our special Trading Challenge to honor the 40th anniversary of WTI Crude Oil futures. Practice trading in a simulated environment with the most liquid crude oil futures benchmark in the world. Use our established, time-tested market with around-the-clock liquidity and global participation as you get to know our suite of WTI contracts in a risk-free environment that mimics live markets.
Learn why WTI has amassed worldwide interest
Have a gas as you explore WTI futures and simulate trading with the world’s most liquid oil contract. Receive daily education lessons from CME Group’s Owain Johnson, Managing Director of Research and Product Development. Gain valuable experience in a simulated environment while competing for a top spot.
Prizes for eligible participants
The top three finishers for this challenge will earn cash prizes. The top 40 finishers will also receive a complimentary copy of the recent book written by Owain Johnson, titled 40 Classic Crude Oil Trades.
This competition is open to residents in the United States (US), Canada (CA) excluding Quebec, *Brazil (BR), United Kingdom (UK), Germany (DE), Netherlands (NL), Switzerland (CH), Republic of Korea (KR), Taiwan (TW), and Japan (JP).
*Residents of Brazil must have a bank account in the United States to be eligible to receive a prize.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
April Gold: April gold corrected after completing the first upside PriceCount objective in January now the chart is threatening to resume its rally where a sustained high would project a run to the second count in the 2052 area
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Access new markets with the enhanced suite from CME Group
CME Group invites you to attend an online event focusing on the Micro E-mini futures and options suite on Wednesday, March 22.
Join us as Craig Bewick, Senior Director of Client Development & Sales, and Paul Woolman, Global Head of Equity Products, discuss the trading performance and rise in liquidity of Micro E-mini Equity futures and options. In addition, they will cover recent enhancements to the suite, including the introduction of Micro E-mini S&P MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 futures as well as the Micro E-mini Monday-Thursday Weekly options.
Follow the link below to register for this online event. Further instructions will be provided following registration.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
What Traders need to Know to Finish the Trading Week:
By Mark O’Brien, Senior broker
Crude oil futures prices plunged more than $5.50 a barrel intraday today – touching a low of $65.65 (basis April) – to their lowest in more than a year as news that Credit Suisse’s biggest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said it would not make further investments in the firm, sending the Swiss lender’s stock plunging ±27% and adding to the already extreme turmoil in the banking sector from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week here in the U.S.
In turn, gold futures prices climbed over 1% intraday with the April contract topping $1,942.50 per ounce intraday, it’s highest price since early February. Conversely, Copper futures lost ±11 cents / pound – over 4% intraday – with the May futures contract touching $3.84 / lb. matching prices from early January and extending a near month-long ±40-cent / $10,000 decline.
Not surprisingly, with the banking sector hitting rough seas this last week, treasuries have once again assumed their safe-haven status with the 30-yr. T-bond futures contract soaring ±10 full basis points ±$10,000 over the last nine trading days to March 3 and sending the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield tumbling to near 3.5%
Significant volatility looks to be the order of the day for the near term across the major financial futures sectors – stock indexes, interest rates, currencies – as well as metals and energies. Up next, the FOMC meeting this coming Tuesday/Wednesday.
Be Careful out there, Plan your trade and trade your plan!
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Week Ahead,(hint CPI release tomorrow, Fed Blackout period, ECB Rate decision to name a few)
By John Thorpe, Senior broker
Or rather the weekend update for March 13th.. No government bailouts!
I bring this to everyone’s attention so you can, for yourself, rather than listen to our available media outlets what the Fed has decided to do and how they plan on addressing any future bank issues. I have also included the FDIC links where Failed Banks will be listed. For now we have two , let’s hope it stays that way..
Mixed signals from a number The US Treasury Department and The Fed over the weekend. (Janet Yellen said no help for the depositors of SVB on Saturday) Fed Reversed.
Here are a few links regarding the eye popping news of Bank Failures.
The FDIC is where you can get the most recent updated list and what actions they take. Personally when the appoint a new CEO do your research on these people.
if CPI core services excluding housing is not also improving, the FOMC will have another reason to hike rates by 50 basis points at the March meeting. If some of the lagged effects of past rate hikes are visible release @ 7:30 CDT Tuesday.
FINAL Demand PPI on Wednesday at , you got it, the same time will move the market although it shouldn’t be Brutal.
Thursday Jobless claims! Same bat time same bat station. Also the ECB Rate decision at 8:15 CDT 45 mins after the jobless claims and housing starts, we finish on ST. Paddy’s day! With a Leading indicators number that may be overshadowed by the previous economic releases. Be Careful out there, Plan your trade and trade your plan!
The March Mini SP resumed its rally into a new high earlier this month but was unable to sustain that renewed momentum now in the correction lower the chart is activated downside PriceCounts and quickly completed the first objective and showing signs of stability for a moment
Hot market above is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
I personally start trading June this Monday when the volume on June is higher than the March.
Volume in the March contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration next Friday, March 17th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any March futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on March 17th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.
Monday, March 13th is Last Trading Day for March currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all March futures contracts by Friday, March 10th and to start trading the June futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.
The month code for June is ‘M.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
May Copper: May copper satisfied its first upside PriceCount objective and developed a sideway consolidation trade. If the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the second count would project a run to the 4.60 area.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Ahead of NFP this Friday, the below is provided by our friends over at NewSquawk.com
PREVIEW: US nonfarm payrolls (Feb’23) to be released on Friday March 10th at 13:30GMT/08:30EST
Traders will frame the February jobs data in the context of the FOMC’s March 22nd meeting. Chair Powell this week has guided expectations towards a 50bps rate rise at that meeting, and suggested that the FOMC is likely to revise its view of the terminal rate higher.
Accordingly, the bar for further hawkish repricing is higher than the bar for any dovish tweaking to that pricing (the former being likely in the event of an upside surprise, and the latter in the event of a downside surprise).
The reaction will likely be largely premised on the headline and then the wage components. It is also worth noting that expectations for that March meeting will be refined by the CPI data for the month, which is due on March 14th.
EXPECTATIONS: The consensus looks for 203k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in February (forecast range: 100-325k), with the pace cooling from the 517k added in January. If the consensus is realized, it would be lower than the pace of the 3-, 6- and 12-month averages, at 356k, 349k and 414k respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.4% (range: 3.3-3.5%); the Fed projects that the jobless rate will peak at 4.6% in 2023, although the central bank will update its economic projections at the March 21-22nd confab.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Be ready to trade tomorrow and know what reports are coming and possible implications!
Today we saw a very volatile market with Powell speaking. More to follow tomorrow along with beige book, JOLTS and ADP and if you are an energy trader than you probably already know, its the weekly number that can really move the energy sector.
See full list of the reports below.
By the way Did you know you can trade EVENT CONTRACTS?
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
