Every story has two sides to it.
The outcome is always the same, be cautious and if you don’t know what you’re doing, speak with a professional.
Let’s discuss the positive side of the market, the economy has been resilient, it’s been hit with shocks along the way since the beginning of the decade. We’ve had strong 2nd & 3rd quarter real GDP; estimates are that will continue in the 4th quarter. And as a result, earnings are resilient as well.
We’re seeing earnings led melt up in the market.
That’s the reason we’re hearing on the news ignore all the negative noise. I heard David Solomon say “I think we’re set up where we have the possibility for a stronger growth trajectory for the next few years. If the economy doesn’t have a recession, then PE can probably stay high”.
In addition, I also wrote in last week’s blog; Washington influences growth through three primary levers: fiscal policy (taxes and spending), monetary policy (interest rates), and credit policy (ease of borrowing). Historically, these functioned independently and were often uncoordinated:
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Fiscal policy followed congressional cycles.
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Monetary policy was the domain of an independent Fed.
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Credit policy was often the result of disjointed regulatory decisions.
This year marks a shift. All three levers are currently dialed toward stimulus, reflecting a unified focus by the administration and Congress on accelerating growth ahead of the November midterms.
New video is now on our YouTube Channel where we review:
10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX):
Reviewed the current technical structure, highlighting key trend behavior and what recent price action suggests for rates and the markets.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
Covered the break of a major long-term support line, discussing why this move is technically important. Continued weakness could impact commodities and equities.
Wheat Futures:
Analyzed the recent upside move, outlining critical support and resistance levels and what to watch for continuation versus consolidation.
Silver:
Discussed the ongoing parabolic advance, the risks that come with extended moves, and technical ways to approach participation while managing downside.
S&P 500 (SPX):
Marked the first key support and resistance levels, providing a framework for near-term market direction and potential inflection points.
See below and make sure to subscribe and be notified to time sensitive videos we post!
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