Crypto, Metals, September Crude Oil; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 17th, 2025

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Crypto, Metals

Trump Vs. Powell Moving the Markets

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

crypto

As the saying goes, “You can’t fight fundamentals.” It’s the idea that even if technical analysis suggests one thing, fundamentals will override the direction of an asset’s movement. There are numerous fundamentals traders keep an eye on, like economic indicators, weather, supply and demand dynamics, the seemingly endless news and information.

One fundamental indicator taking a front seat lately is almost any time U.S. president Trump steps up to a microphone and answers questions from members of the press, particularly on the subjects of the economy, tariffs, trade agreements with other countries and the like. Possibly more than any president in recent memory, the current one has put forth statements that markets have reacted to with outsized price moves. This is not likely to change anytime soon, so day traders be on the look-out for presidential press conferences and be prepared.

Metals:

Case in point from above: August gold futures thrust up ±$50 per ounce to a $3,385.80/oz. high intraday reacting to the latest case of President Trump raising the prospect of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from office. Today the president suggested he could attempt to remove Powell “for cause,” arguing the central bank spent too much money on renovations of two historic office buildings.

Back story: The Fed board approved the construction project in 2017, and the latest renovations began three years ago. The project has faced cost overruns in part because of unforeseen construction conditions including more asbestos than anticipated, toxic contamination in the soil and a higher-than-expected water table.

Economists and financial analysts have warned that a central bank that is more responsive to short-term political demands than long-term economic stability could over time lead to significant capital flight and periods of greater economic or financial instability.

Crypto:

A series of debates starting Monday in the U.S. House of Representatives, deemed “crypto week,” caused Bitcoin futures to surge to a new all-time intraday high Monday, to $123,610, capping a nearly 15% surge over the past month.

The debates are looking at crypto-friendly legislation making its way through Congress that could ease regulatory complexity long viewed as an impediment for the industry.

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September Crude Oil

September crude oil completed its second upside PriceCount objective last month and corrected lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a potential run to the 84.43 area.

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Daily Levels for July 17th, 2025

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Cattle! 5 Powerful Signals That Cattle Prices Are Breaking Records – Are You Positioned Right?

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Cattle! Gold! Your Summer of ‘25 burgers will be the most expensive in your lifetime!

Cattle

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Buckle your seatbelts, Huge Rally in equities and Commodities on the move.

Your Summer of ‘25 burgers will be the most expensive in your lifetime!

Please speak with your broker about ways that you may not be aware of to assist you with your risk management plans. They may surprise you with the creative solutions you may find more efficient than simple stop orders or the old “hand on the mouse blow yourself out” strategy.

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely.

Have you looked at the Cattle market lately? All time high prices?

I bet you have checked the recent price of your favorite cut of beef at the local Piggly Wiggly.

The Live cattle futures and Feeder cattle futures contracts are at all-time highs. The biggest supporting data, you ask? The US Cattle herd is the smallest it has been in over 65 years.

Think about that for a minute. The US Population in 1960 was a mere 179,323,000 souls. In 2025? Estimates are near the 341,662,000 mark. I doubt the 162,339 000 Americans that represent this population growth can’t all be Vegan! Low supply meets big demand until……

The overnight initial margin req. for 1 Live Cattle contract (40,000 lbs) is 3025.00 and for the Feeder cattle, 4537.00. Please call for more details.

Mini Dow’s range today? 1203 points $value? = $6015.00 from hi to lo

Mini S & P’s range today? 167.50 points $ Value? = $8375.00 from hi to lo

Mini Nasdaq’s range today? 650.25 points $value? = $13005.00 from hi to lo

How gold is your portfolio?

All time highs in the yellow metal today. 3509.9 per troy ounce currently trading @ 3366.00 +/- over $144.00 per oz. what a correction for this over bought market as it reacted to the recovery in the equities. We offer all exchange traded contract sizes, from 1 oz to 100 ounces.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  New Home Sales, Beige Book, EIA Energy stocks.

FED Speak: Musalem and Waller @ 8:35am CDT

Earnings: IBM, AT&T, Phillip Morris

Tariff news: Anything goes!

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Daily Levels for April 23rd, 2025

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Gold Soars, Wheat Shrinks: 7 Powerful Stats from a Wild Trading Day

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Turbulence in Equities & Commodities

Gold & Wheat, Emini S&P COTD

Buckle your seatbelts, Turbulence in equities and Commodities

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Please speak with your broker about ways that you may not be aware of to assist you with your risk management plans. They may surprise you with the creative solutions you may find more efficient than simple stop orders or the old “hand on the mouse blow yourself out” strategy.

Wheat

wheat

Why the turbulence in the Grain markets? USDA prospective plantings report was revealed, although largely in line with expectations, it’s a surprise that planted acres are down for soybeans, wheat and 12% lower for cotton while farmers are switching out of beans and planting corn instead, as seed and fertilizer costs are lower for these compliments in production.

Wheat for all winter varieties planted is the second smallest crop since records have been kept from 1919. The weather market begins now in earnest for the Wheat complex for the next 8 weeks.

    Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely.

 What in the world was going on with equity prices today, first the big dump was attributed to Liberation Tariff Day, coined by the media, only to see the markets stage a brave comeback against all talking point odds! Was this merely a technical correction? Or a combination of oversold and some positive tariff news?

 Mini Dow’s range today? 786 points $value? = $3930.00 from hi to lo

  Mini S & P’s range today? 111.25 points $ Value? = $5562.50 from hi to lo

Mini Nasdaq’s range today? 439 points $value? = 8785.00 from hi to lo

How Gold is your Portfolio?

Gold

gold nugg

All-time highs in gold today. 3162.00 per troy gold ounce currently trading @ 3155.00 + over $40.00 per gold oz. yet the industrial metals were negative today, Dr. Copper and Silver. We offer all exchange traded contract sizes, from 1 oz to 100 ounces.

Secondary tariffs on Russian oil talk had the Crude oil futures up over $2 per bbl safely above the $70.00 /bbl price level.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  Redbook, ISM Mfg. Final, JOLTS, Dallas Fed.

FED Speak: Quiet

Earnings: Quiet

Tariff news: Anything goes!

June Emini S&P

The June Emini S&P corrected after it fompleted its second downside PriceCount objective earlier this month. Now, the chart has resumed its slide into a new low which, if sustained, would project a run to the third count in the 5371 area.

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Emini

Chart above is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for April 1st, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Triple Witching Friday; Powerful Market Shift! 3 Crucial Facts About Triple Witching Friday

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Triple Witching!

triple witching

Triple Witching tomorrow!

Stock Index March contracts (i.e., the E-mini and Micro S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000.) expire Friday, March 21st (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any March futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.

Triple Witching!

FRONT MONTH IS NOW JUNE, the symbol is M25, example for MICRO mini SP is MESM25

Things to know about Triple Witching

A “triple witching,” is NOT without risk for holders of futures and futures option contracts.

A triple witching is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and index futures options that occurs four times a year.

The first triple witching of 2025 will take place this Friday. Futures Stock indices and futures Options cease to allow trading at the opening bell of the Cash Stock market and settle, NOT to the final traded price at that time but, at a fixed settlement price based on where all the stocks making up the index have opened, this becomes the cash settled price for those contracts not offset prior to the trading halt.

Triple Witching!

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Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a basket of 24 commodities spread across energy, grains, softs, livestock, industrial and precious metals. The weekly chart has developed a 2-year sideways range of trade. IF the chart can break out to the topside, there are upside PriceCount objectives in place which suggest that this index would have significant potential to run.

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Chart above is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normalfor the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 21st, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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FOMC: Shocking Decision Just Sent Gold Soaring: 3 Big Reasons Why

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Market Highlights

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

The Day After FOMC

fomc

FOMC Meeting Update  

The FOMC left interest rates unchanged today.  In language newly added to its policy statement, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”  Surveys of consumers and businesses, corporate earnings, and financial markets, albeit “soft data,” have suggested that the economic ground may be shifting beneath our feet.  Last Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for March sank for the third straight month, showing sharply lower expectations for the future – regardless of respondents’ party affiliations.  Warnings have percolated from airlines and retailers, i.e. Dollar General and Walmart, about underwhelming consumer demand.  Outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas announced layoffs reached their highest levels since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was in full force — and the highest level for the month of February since 2009. That’s all for the FOMC for now.

Metals:

Gold prices edged higher to hover near all-time highs on the heels of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s post announcement press conference.

Daily Levels for March 20th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Gold Surges to All-Time Record High of $3040 – 5 Key Signals, 7 Volatility Triggers Before the FOMC Decision

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Movers & Shakers – GOLD

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

gold nugg

 

Movers and Shakers:  FOMC Meeting Tomorrow @ 1:00PM CDT

    Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely. Prepare for shocks on the tomorrow FOMC Rate decision but, more importantly, expect a roller coaster during the Chairman’s statement and Q and A 30 minutes to follow.

How gold is your portfolio? 

All time highs in Gold today. 3040.00 per troy ounce of Gold. We have all contract sizes, from 1 oz to 100 ounces of Gold.

Today was a subdued trading day for almost all of the high-volume products we trade compared to the past 30 days or so.

Waiting for FOMC rate decision?

GOLD

Here were today’s top headlines.

Updated: March 18, 2025 7:32 am

US Housing Starts and Building Permits Headline Recap

**US February Housing Starts: +11.2% to 1.501 mln units annualized rate; expected +1.0% to 1.38 mln

**US February Building Permits: -1.2% to 1.456 mln unit annualized rate; expected -2.2% to 1.45 mln

Updated: March 18, 2025 8:17 am

Federal Reserve US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Headline Recap

**Federal Reserve February US Industrial Production: +0.7%; expected +0.3%

**Federal Reserve February US Capacity Utilization: +0.5% to 78.2; expected 77.8%

**Federal Reserve January US Industrial Production revised: +0.3%; prior +0.5%

  • **Federal Reserve January US Capacity Utilization revised: 77.7%; prior 77.8%

Daily Levels for March 19th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Gold Surges to Record $2,974: Powerful Trends & Market Shifts in This Month’s Report

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Monthly Micro

Gold, Silver and Copper

Markets Report

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Highlights in this issue include:

  • Gold prices reach new high of $2,974/oz amid tariff fears and a weaker USD.
  • Silver prices down 2.4% MoM: weaker industrial demand concerns persist.
  • Copper prices gain 1.8% MoM, the third consecutive month of growth despite tariff uncertainty.
  • Micro Gold futures saw 21% MoM growth in February.

1-Ounce Gold futures see strong start: ADV reached 8,144 contracts in February.

READ FULL REPORT

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Daily Levels for March 18th, 2025

JUNE levels for stock index futures will be sent out tomorrow morning around the cash open!

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Gold Drops to $40, Silver Freefalls as Looming Recession Fears Weigh Heavy on Markets

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Movers & Shakers: Gold, Silver, Recession Fears

gold silver

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Movers and Shakers: QUIET Econ data and fed speak tomorrow

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely.

The S&P experienced an 85 point slide ($4250.00 per contract) 65 points immediately following the negative consumer confidence number release that declined by 7 points. The market has continued to recover from the initial loses and look to close in the _0 to 20 point range near 5990.00 basis the March contract. The NQ also took a drubbing, down 225 points as of this writing after being down over 400 points earlier in the session while the DOW looks to add 150 + points today.

Gold, Silver, Recession Fears

Gold, Silver: Recessionary concerns as a result of the building lack of confidence also impacted the Gold and Silver markets , with gold taking a $40.00 per ounce whack and Silver taking a .68 drubbing per troy ounce basis the May contract.

Not to be left out, the US 30 yr Bond, ( ZBM25) was up ( lower interest rates) 42 32nds basis the June contract.

Crude oil will be closing under $70.00 bbl for the first time since the day after Christmas at what looks to be 69.10 basis the April contract.

Updated: February 25, 2025 7:28 am

Dallas Fed President put forth the idea of using a modest portion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to holding daily auctions of discount window loans, arguing that it will improve efficiency and effectiveness in implementing policy, and encourage banks needing liquidity to borrow at the Fed. The US Fed discount window lend to banks in need of cash, exchanging for less liquid collateral held by banks.

Updated: February 25, 2025 7:55 am

Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.9% in the first three weeks of February 2025 vs February 2024

**Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +6.2% in the week ending February 22 vs yr ago week

Updated: February 25, 2025 8:01 am

Case Schiller 20 US Metro-Area Home Prices Recap

**Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for December Y/Y: +4.4% from the year ago month

**Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for December M/M: -0.1% vs prior month

Updated: February 25, 2025 9:02 am

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Headline Recap

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 **Richmond Fed February Manufacturing Index: +6.0 ; prior -4.0; expected -2.0

**Richmond Fed February Manufacturing Shipments Index:+12.0 ; prior -9.0

**Richmond Fed February Manufacturing New Orders: 0.0 ; prior -4.0

**Richmond Fed February Manufacturing Employees: +9.0 ; prior +3.0

**Richmond Fed February Manufacturing Prices Paid: +2.23 ; prior +2.37

**Richmond Fed February Manufacturing Prices Received: +1.62 ; prior +1.21

**Richmond Fed February Service Sector Index: +11.0 ; prior +4.0

Updated: February 25, 2025 9:06 am

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 7.0 points in February to 98.3 (1985=100).

Tomorrow:

  • Rich. Fed, Bldg Permits, New Home sales.,
  • NVIDIA Earnings after the close!
  • Fed Barkin 7:30 am CST, Fed Bostic 11:00 am CST .
  • Crude Oil Inventories
  • G20 all day

Daily Levels for February 26th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Market Updates: S&P 500, Crude Oil, and Gold Movements

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The Day Ahead in Futures Trading

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil

Gold

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements

Indexes:

The March E-mini S&P 500 traded within striking distance of its life-of-contract high posted back on Dec. 4th and 6th (6164.00) breaching that price intraday with a 6166.50 print and closing today at 6163.00

Energy:

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains to a third-consecutive session amid growing supply worries.

March futures for West Texas Intermediate Crude traded briefly above $73.00 per barrel, a ±75 intraday increase and trading up ± 46 cents per barrel at ±$72.31.

If you missed it, EIA Energy Stocks were NOT released today, as is usual.  Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, the report will be release tomorrow, 30 minutes after the EIA Gas Stocks report: 7:30 A.M., Central Time (gas), 8:00 A.M. (energy).

Metals:

Gold prices wavered near unchanged at this blog’s submission after trading ±$15 above and below yesterday’s settlement and near its all-time highs near $2,950 per ounce.

Fueling safe-haven demand for the precious metal, the Trump administration plans to impose tariffs of around 25% on U.S. bound autos and auto-building components, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals as early as April 2.

April gold futures have gained about 12% so far this year, with analysts expecting higher prices in a trade war.  On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce.

Daily Levels for February 20th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Hidden Market Trends: Copper Joins Coffee and Gold in Notable Moves

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Coffee Anyone? Gold? Copper?

COFFEE

 

While most day traders focus on markets like mini SP, MICRO NQ, bonds and few others, some of the other markets have made some noticeable moves. Coffee, Gold and now Copper.

 

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March copper is activating upside PriceCount objectives off the January lows. The first count projects a possible run to the 4.80 area which is consistent with a challenge of the fall high.

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Daily Levels for February 11th, 2025

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822b33c5 2339 45ed bc84 e9c8f8c7358e

Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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