CPI, Crude Oil, July Heating Oil, Soybeans; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 12th, 2025

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CPI Came and Gone

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

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General:

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures eased on a monthly basis despite investor concerns that President Trump’s tariffs would accelerate the pace of price increases.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% month over month, below April’s 0.2% rise and lower than economists’ estimates of a 0.2% monthly gain in prices.

Energies:

Crude Oil

West Texas crude oil futures rallied to pre-“Liberation Day” levels as the U.S. and China tentatively reached a trade agreement. More consequentially, doubts grew that the U.S. and Iran were close to reaching a nuclear deal.

President Trump said he was losing confidence that a nuclear deal would be agreed upon, and Iran’s defense minister said his country would target U.S. military bases in the region if conflict broke out with the United States.

Amid those threats, the United States is evacuating diplomatic personnel from Iraq, a State Department official told the Middle East independent news Al-Monitor this afternoon.

Momentum likely also drew from this morning’s EIA’s report of a bigger-than-expected 3.6-million-barrel draw in U.S. crude stocks.

Grains:

Soybean, Corn

Conversely, Chicago Board of Trade soybean and corn futures drifted lower into the close of trading as uncertainty grew on a lack of specifics about agricultural goods in the framework of those same U.S. / China trade negotiations. China is the world’s biggest soybean importer, while the U.S. is the No. 2 exporter of the oilseed.

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July Heating Oil

 

July heating oil is attempting to break out above the May high and resume its rally. New sustained highs would project a possible run to the first upside PriceCount objective to the 2.29 area. This target is consistent with a challenge of the April high and gap objective.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 12th, 2025

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You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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