General:
Yesterday and today, four holidays from different cultures and religions overlapped in a rare calendar-timed line-up thanks to several long solar, lunar and lunisolar calendar cycles. So . . .
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Happy Lunar New Year (yesterday)
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Happy Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras (yesterday)
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Happy Ash Wednesday
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Happy 1st day of Ramadan.
Metals:
With metals prices dominating futures traders’ headspace, it was notable that UBS, the multinational investment bank and financial services firm based in Switzerland, gave a “what’s next for commodities,” update this week and metals took center stage. UBS is the world’s largest private bank with over $6.1 trillion in assets. It manages the largest amount of private wealth in the world and is a leading market maker. So, their insights are probably worth monitoring.
Here are a few highlights:
Copper
After copper futures prices hit a record high in late January before consolidating, UBS projects, “further supply shortages for copper . . . . that should support prices over the medium term, while structural drivers (e.g., electrification) underpin long-term demand.
Precious metals futures prices including gold, while volatile, rose in January as political, geopolitical, and economic uncertainties drove “safe haven” demand. The bank “see(s) gold resuming its climb, rising as high as $6,200/oz by mid-year, supported by central bank and investor demand, large fiscal deficits, lower real U.S. interest rates, and geopolitical risks.”
Metals 2026
In short, they believe fundamentals remain supportive for the metals sector. More broadly, their view is that “commodities are set to play a more prominent role in portfolios in 2026, in our view, offering diversification amid supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical risks, and the global energy transition. We like broad commodity exposure, and continue to favor gold, which we see as an attractive hedge.”
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