Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1256

• The Week Ahead – Labor Day Schedule, NFP

• Futures 101 – Using Fundamental Analysis

• Hot Market of the Week – December 10 year notes

• Trading Levels for Next Week

• Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

Labor Day, Non Farm Payrolls

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Abbreviated Futures Market hours on Labor Day (Labor Day Schedule), Non Farm Payroll Friday, EIA Statistics for Crude and Natural Gas will be released Thursday due to the Holiday.

A heavy dose of economic data points will be released next week providing plenty of food for thought to chew on for the fed voting members as they continue to assess whether a freeze on Fed Funds or a reduction of .25 to .50 is the best medicine for the economy when they announce a rate decision September 20th.

CME FedWatch tool has the probability of a Fed Fund rate reduction on Sep 20th at 89.2 %, 10.8% chance of no reduction. This is a 30+ percentage point improvement from 1 month ago. The purpose of markets is to take in all information and adjust price according to that information.

Markets have already priced in this probability so it’s important to watch these numbers to see how the markets react today to these probabilities changing,  I am talking about Precious metals (inflation), Bonds (long term rates following short term to varying degrees), the energy complex (cheaper capital higher demand), Equities (cheaper capital), Currencies (capital flows out of US dollar denominated assets to higher interest rate debentures)

The on again off again nature of Tariff and Russia/Ukraine war talks has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others. (see gold commentary below)  Crude Oil is knocking on the ceiling of it’s range near $65.00 bbl.

Remember to zoom out when reading your intraday time frame charts to daily and weekly time frames. December Gold is still rangebound! High end of the range this week trading above $3500.00 for the first time since august 8th. Last week I wrote this:  This week, the psychological low was challenged in the 3350.00 area basis December and bounced, as of this writing, current price is 3420.00. Three weeks ago, I wrote this: Watch for the gold market to maintain its rangebound stance, close below 3350 (basis December) or above 3500 should denote a breakout, begin trading the December(Z) contract next week.

Two weeks ago, I wrote:  Dec gold traded below 3350 today and the past three days but never closed meaningfully below 3350.0 (3348.60 Thurs.) Today we have breached $3500.00 oz with a high in the $3543.00 area per oz. while currently trading @$3493.00 oz as of this writing. Look for a close above $3500.00 on successive days to again accumulate longs.

This may be the break from this range we are looking for. Manage your downside risk according to your account size, risk no more than 15-20% whether with options or futures.   Today, August 15th as of this writing that 3500.00 oz did not hold, always wait for confirmation prior to taking a position, several consecutive closes above or below a range is a start. We are teasing the bottom of the range today Dec gold in the 3380’s, I see psychological support @ 3350.00 

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals, especially with China, India, Canada and Russia. Also, remember that Mexico’s extension will end October 29.

We’ll see you next week! Please enjoy a safe and memorable weekend.

Earnings Next Week:

• Mon. Labor Day

• Tue.  Zscaler, Macy’s
• Wed.  SalesForce, Hewlett-Packard, DollarTree
• Thu. Broadcom, LuLuLemon
• Fri.   Baba

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

• Mon.  (holiday trade)
• Tues.  Quiet
• Wed.  8:00 am, Musalem. 12:30 pm Kashkari (non vtg mbr)
• Thu.    11:05 am Williams, 6:00 PM Goolsbee
• Fri.       Quiet

Economic Data week:

• Mon.  Quiet (holiday trade)
• Tue.    Redbook, Global PMI, ISM PMI , RCM/TIPP Optimism Index
• Wed.  JOLTS, Beige Book, (EIA Crude Stocks moved due to L-Day Weekend), 17-week Bill auction
• Thur. ADP, Balance of trade, Initial Jobless claims, ISM PMI, 7:30 am EIA NAT GAS Storage,  11:00     am EIA Crude Stocks, Fed Balance sheet,

• Fri.   Non Farm Payroll

Using Fundamental Analysis When Evaluating Trades

Course Overview

Fundamental analysis is the process of determining the model price of a futures contract, now and in the future, using factors like economic data and industry financial conditions. A trader using fundamental analysis to inform their decisions is looking at how supply and demand could move price, now and in the future. The type of information a trader will use to formulate their opinions will differ across products, in this course we’ll look at each class of products and cover some of the variables that could impact price.

START THE FREE COURSE

Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

December 10-Year Treasury Note

The December 10-Year treasury note has resumed its rally into a new high. If the trend can sustain further strength, the second upside PriceCount objective projects a potential run to the 113’21 area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Sept. 2nd, 2025

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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