FOMC Minutes Ahead!
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
Tomorrow marks the first time this year investors receive the fed minutes from the January 26-27 meeting. Additional volatility could be the order of the final hours of trading tomorrow as these minutes included 2 dissenting opinions.
Based on FOMC press releases, the eight FOMC meetings in 2025 saw significant divisions, with nine total dissents among 95 votes cast, making unanimous decisions relatively rare. Dissenting votes occurred in multiple 2025 meetings, including two at the July meeting and two at the October meeting, reflecting high disagreement.
In July 2025, a rare dual dissent occurred with two governors opposing a rate decision.
It had been more than three decades since two Federal Reserve Board governors dissented on an interest-rate decision at the same Fed policy meeting for the same reason, two dissenters Bowman and Waller both supported a rate cut (October had 1 governor wanting a .50 point cut while the other dissenter opted for a remail policy what actually happened was a .25 point cut.) Investors treated this news with disappointment generating a nearly 400-point 3-week slide in the S&P 500 index.
That kind of internal division is rare, and markets pay attention to it.
Investors are watching for discussions on inflation, the labor market, and the “one-time” effect of tariffs, which may influence future policy decisions.
According to Mark Spitznagel, Founder and Chief investment officer at Universa Investments,
“The upward momentum in US Equities is likely to persist”
He suggested in an interview that investor exuberance could propel the S&P 500 to 8,000 or beyond before a sharp reversal occurs. As of Tuesday morning, the index was trading close to 6,800.
The Fed Minutes will be released @ 1:00pm CST.
He expressed concern that if the Fed keeps Interest Rates elevated for an extended period, companies may find it difficult to secure funding.
“With the Fed holding steady, markets are likely to anticipate further rate cuts as economic conditions gradually weaken”
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