Tag: Non Farm Payroll

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Labor Department Reports, Non Farm Payroll, ADP, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on September 4th, 2025

Posted on September 3, 2025 by Cannon Operations

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements

by Senior Broker, Mark O’Brien

Labor

General:

It’s that time of the month again: we’re a couple of days away from the Labor Dept.’s release of its monthly Non Farm Payrolls report – widely considered to be one of the most important and influential measures of the U.S. economy. The report is released at 7:30 A.M., Central Time on the first Friday of the month and measures the number of workers in the U.S. economy, excluding agricultural workers, and self-employed individuals.

More the usual, this month’s report looks to be a critical moment for traders and investors evaluating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in the coming months.

Again more than usual, attention will be on the revisions to the July non-farm payrolls data. Initial values for this year have been consistently downwardly revised, in part due to low response rates for the survey. The possibility of significant downward revisions could reveal more persistent labor market weakness than initially anticipated.

Ahead of that, tomorrow the ADP National Employment Report – jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab – will show the latest snapshot of the private sector’s employment situation. While the ADP report has a poor record of predicting the Labor Dept.’s numbers – primarily because of each report’s differing means of collecting data – it.

Indexes:

Get ready for the availability of a brand-new S&P 500 stock index futures contract – and corresponding options. Starting Monday, September 22, CME Group will launch S&P 500 Month-End futures and options.

Each futures and options contract is sized at 100x the S&P 500 Index (each 1-point = $100) and expires at the index close every month, providing greater efficiency and flexibility to manage S&P 500 positions.

Now scale S&P 500 exposure with fewer contracts for greater operational efficiency and simplifying your hedging.

View the CME Group’s FAQs to learn more about trading hours, specifications and more.

Metals:

December gold set its latest all-time record high closing price yesterday: $3,592.20 per ounce, after a stout ±$76 rally. Today’s new all-time intraday high near $3,640.00 per ounce – another ±$45 rally – marks a whopping ±$280 per ounce rally in 10 trading days – going back to Aug. 20, a ±$28,000 per contract move!

Likewise, December silver closed yesterday at $42.06 per ounce, setting its own new all-time record high, a ±$4.25 per ounce move over the same 2-week span, a $21,250 per contract move.

Weekly Chinese Renminbi

The Weekly Chinese Renminbi activated upside PriceCount objectives this summer and now, the chart is taking aim at the first count to the .14150 area.

Daily Levels for Sept. 4th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Labor Day Weekend 2025, Non Farm Payroll, December 10 Year Notes, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures the Week of September 1st, 2025

Posted on August 29, 2025 by Cannon Operations

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1256

The Week Ahead – Labor Day Schedule, NFP
Futures 101 – Using Fundamental Analysis
Hot Market of the Week – December 10 year notes
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

Labor Day, Non Farm Payrolls

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Labor Day

Abbreviated Futures Market hours on Labor Day (Labor Day Schedule), Non Farm Payroll Friday, EIA Statistics for Crude and Natural Gas will be released Thursday due to the Holiday.

A heavy dose of economic data points will be released next week providing plenty of food for thought to chew on for the fed voting members as they continue to assess whether a freeze on Fed Funds or a reduction of .25 to .50 is the best medicine for the economy when they announce a rate decision September 20th.

CME FedWatch tool has the probability of a Fed Fund rate reduction on Sep 20th at 89.2 %, 10.8% chance of no reduction. This is a 30+ percentage point improvement from 1 month ago. The purpose of markets is to take in all information and adjust price according to that information.

Markets have already priced in this probability so it’s important to watch these numbers to see how the markets react today to these probabilities changing, I am talking about Precious metals (inflation), Bonds (long term rates following short term to varying degrees), the energy complex (cheaper capital higher demand), Equities (cheaper capital), Currencies (capital flows out of US dollar denominated assets to higher interest rate debentures)

The on again off again nature of Tariff and Russia/Ukraine war talks has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others. (see gold commentary below) Crude Oil is knocking on the ceiling of it’s range near $65.00 bbl.

Remember to zoom out when reading your intraday time frame charts to daily and weekly time frames. December Gold is still rangebound! High end of the range this week trading above $3500.00 for the first time since august 8th. Last week I wrote this: This week, the psychological low was challenged in the 3350.00 area basis December and bounced, as of this writing, current price is 3420.00. Three weeks ago, I wrote this: Watch for the gold market to maintain its rangebound stance, close below 3350 (basis December) or above 3500 should denote a breakout, begin trading the December(Z) contract next week.

Two weeks ago, I wrote: Dec gold traded below 3350 today and the past three days but never closed meaningfully below 3350.0 (3348.60 Thurs.) Today we have breached $3500.00 oz with a high in the $3543.00 area per oz. while currently trading @$3493.00 oz as of this writing. Look for a close above $3500.00 on successive days to again accumulate longs.

This may be the break from this range we are looking for. Manage your downside risk according to your account size, risk no more than 15-20% whether with options or futures. Today, August 15th as of this writing that 3500.00 oz did not hold, always wait for confirmation prior to taking a position, several consecutive closes above or below a range is a start. We are teasing the bottom of the range today Dec gold in the 3380’s, I see psychological support @ 3350.00

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals, especially with China, India, Canada and Russia. Also, remember that Mexico’s extension will end October 29.

We’ll see you next week! Please enjoy a safe and memorable weekend.

Earnings Next Week:

Mon. Labor Day
Tue. Zscaler, Macy’s
Wed. SalesForce, Hewlett-Packard, DollarTree
Thu. Broadcom, LuLuLemon
Fri. Baba

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

Mon. (holiday trade)
Tues. Quiet
Wed. 8:00 am, Musalem. 12:30 pm Kashkari (non vtg mbr)
Thu. 11:05 am Williams, 6:00 PM Goolsbee
Fri. Quiet

Economic Data week:

Mon. Quiet (holiday trade)
Tue. Redbook, Global PMI, ISM PMI , RCM/TIPP Optimism Index
Wed. JOLTS, Beige Book, (EIA Crude Stocks moved due to L-Day Weekend), 17-week Bill auction
Thur. ADP, Balance of trade, Initial Jobless claims, ISM PMI, 7:30 am EIA NAT GAS Storage, 11:00 am EIA Crude Stocks, Fed Balance sheet,
Fri. Non Farm Payroll

Using Fundamental Analysis When Evaluating Trades

Course Overview

Fundamental analysis is the process of determining the model price of a futures contract, now and in the future, using factors like economic data and industry financial conditions. A trader using fundamental analysis to inform their decisions is looking at how supply and demand could move price, now and in the future. The type of information a trader will use to formulate their opinions will differ across products, in this course we’ll look at each class of products and cover some of the variables that could impact price.

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Hot Market of the Week

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December 10-Year Treasury Note

The December 10-Year treasury note has resumed its rally into a new high. If the trend can sustain further strength, the second upside PriceCount objective projects a potential run to the 113’21 area.

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Daily Levels for Sept. 2nd, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

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4 Timely Lessons from the Week’s Sharpest Index Futures Decline, May Meal, Non Farm Payroll

Posted on April 3, 2025April 14, 2025 by Jenny Collins

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Index Futures

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Extreme Volatility

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Non Farm Payroll Tomorrow

non farm payroll

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

As of this typing stock index futures and other futures contracts (but particularly index futures) have experienced single-day downward moves not seen in years:

Index Futures

index futures

→ E-mini Dow Jones: down ±1,600 points / 3.7%

→ E-mini S&P 500: down ±260 points / 4.5%

→ E-mini Nasdaq: down ±1,025 points / 5.1%

→ E-mini Russell 2000: down ±128 points / 6.2%

With tomorrow ushering in the Labor Dept.’s release of its monthly Non-farm payrolls report and the furtherance of what looks to be the beginning of a global trade war, expect no drop-off in market volatility.

Index Futures

Traders not only need to be extra cautious in making trading decisions, it’s also important to be aware of important aspects of the markets they’re trading.

Key among these are the daily price limits of the markets you’re trading. A price limit is the maximum price range permitted for a futures contract in each trading session. When markets hit the price limit, different actions occur depending on the product being traded.

Index Futures

Some markets may temporarily halt until price limits can be expanded or trading may be stopped for the day based on regulatory rules. Different futures contracts will have different price limit rules; i.e. Equity Index futures have different rules than Agricultural futures.

Price limits are re-calculated daily and remain in effect for all trading days (except in certain physically-deliverable markets, where price limits are lifted prior to expiration so that futures prices are not prevented from converging on prices for the underlying commodity).

Index Futures

Equity Indexes futures have a three level expansion: 7%, 13% and 20% to the downside, and a 7% limit up and down in overnight trading.

Follow the links below to the CME Group web site to find more information on price limits generally and specific price limits for the markets you’re trading:

Find daily price limits for CME Group Agricultural, Cryptocurrency, Energy, Equity Index, Interest Rates, and Metals products: click here.

Index Futures

May Meal

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May meal has resumed its break into fresh contract lows. The chart is approaching its second downisde PriceCount objective in the $287 area where it would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF we can sustain further weakness, there is a third count near $249 although we’d first have to contend with formidable weekly chart support in the $280 area.

That’s May Meal

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Daily Levels for April 4th, 2025

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll, & Powell; 3 Poised to Drive Market Volatility in Triple Threat!

Posted on March 28, 2025 by Jenny Collins

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USDA

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1236

The Week Ahead – Non-Farm Payroll, Prospective Plantings and Fed Chair Powell
Futures 102 – Intro to Crude Oil Futures
Hot Market of the Week – Bloomberg Commodity (CRB) Index
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Combo Breakout Swing System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week

Non Farm Payroll Friday!

non farm payroll

June gold is front month!

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

USDA, Non Farm Payroll, Prospective Plantings and Fed Chair Powell?

USDA

One of the most impactful Agricultural reports of the year will be released Monday at 11:00 am CDT. The Prospective Plantings report and Grain Stocks released by the USDA will offer a needed insight into prospective acreage plantings for grains and oilseeds.

I have included commentary from The Progressive Farmers’ DTN top analyst for your review: DTN Pre-Report analysis

usda

More volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting, as they have been, to the Global Tariff talk.

Non Farm Payroll

Highlights next week will include the aforementioned Grain report. Non farm Payroll (NFP) Friday followed by Fed Chair J. Powell and other Fed Speakers. This may be the final Q4 2024 Earnings guidance as we will see a mere 67 releases the entire week.

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Earnings Next Week:

Mon. Quiet
Tue. Quiet
Wed. Quiet
Thu. Conagra, Constellation Brands
Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES:

Mon. Bostic 12:45 CDT, Barr 2:10 CDT,
Tues. Kugler 7:40 CDT, Williams 8:05 CDT ,
Wed. Kugler 3:30 CDT
Thu. Jefferson 11:30 CDT, Cook 1:30 CDT
Fri. Fed Chair J. Powell 10:25 CDT, Barr 11:00 CDT, Waller 11:45 CDT

Economic Data week:

Mon. Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, USDA Prospecting Plantings and Grain Stocks
Tue. Redbook, ISM Mfg. Final, JOLTS, Dallas Fed.,
Wed. EIA Crude Stocks, ADP, Factory Orders
Thur. Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Svcs Final, EIA Nat Gas
Fri. Non-Farm Payroll

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Futures 102: Introduction to Crude Oil futures

Course overview

crude oil

Today’s energy crude oil market is truly global. From West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to Brent and DME Oman, the crude oil market fuels many of the world’s leading economies and impact nearly every nation. Energy crude oil futures and options provide the tools the industry needs to manage risk.

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Hot Market of the Week

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Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a basket of 24 commodities spread across energy, grains, softs, livestock, industrial and precious metals. The weekly chart has developed a 2-year sideways range of trade. IF the chart can break out to the topside, there are upside PriceCount objectives in place which suggest that this index would have significant potential to run.

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Combo Breakout 1 Trading System

Market Sector: Diversified / Multiple

Markets Traded: C , KW , S , W , CL , HO , NG , RB , KC , SB , FGBL , TU , FV , BP , EC , JY , SF , DX , FESX , GC , EMD , NQ , RTY , ES , YM ,

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $50,000

Developer Fee per contract: $200.00 Monthly Subscription

System Description:

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Combo Breakout I is specially designed to trade with Combo Breakout II and Combo Breakout III for their low correlations in the portfolio level.

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Disclaimer: The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”.

A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you.

You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position.

If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for March 31st, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.

You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.