Is there a statistical average return for equities in the two weeks, at the start of the year, between Jan 2 and the first Q4 earnings drop?

Over the last few decades there is no single, reliable pattern where the broad U.S. equity market consistently rises or falls specifically in the short window between New Year’s and the bulk of Q4 earnings releases. What does show up is a mix of weak calendar tendencies (January effect, “earnings drift”) that are small, noisy, and far from tradable guarantees on their own.​

Clarifying the window

Most Q4 earnings for large caps (e.g., S&P 500) start in mid‑January and cluster through early‑mid February, so the “pre‑Q4‑earnings” period after New Year’s is roughly the first one to two weeks of January. Over 30‑year horizons, most seasonality and earnings studies look at full‑month or full‑quarter behavior, not a narrow slice, which is why there is no widely cited statistic like “average return from Jan 2 to the start of Q4 earnings season over 30 years.”​

Relevant tendencies

Within that limitation, several known effects partly touch this two-week window:

• January effect (especially small caps)
• Small‑cap stocks have often shown a tendency to outperform in early January, attributed to tax‑loss selling in December and re‑buying in January, plus new‑year allocations, but more recent work finds the effect weaker and less reliable than in older data.​
• Q4 strength and earnings backdrop
• Q4 as a whole has historically been one of the stronger quarters for the S&P 500, with average gains in the mid‑single‑digits since mid‑20th century, though this refers to October–December, not the post‑New‑Year slice. By the time New Year hits, a significant part of earnings expectations is already priced, and subsequent moves around reports are more about surprises than about the calendar date.​
• January barometer / momentum narrative
• Many commentaries note that “ when January is up, the rest of the year has, on average, been stronger than normal”, but this is a loose correlation about the whole month and full‑year returns rather than a stable edge specifically before Q4 earnings.​

Practical takeaway

For trading or risk‑management purposes, the evidence supports treating the early‑January, pre‑Q4‑earnings period as having only weak, noisy seasonality that is easily swamped by macro data, positioning, and idiosyncratic earnings news. If you want a usable edge, it typically comes from cross‑sectional earnings‑surprise/dispersion work or specific factor exposures, not from the simple calendar relationship of “just before Q4 reports in early January.”​

Plan your trade and trade your plan.