General Trading:
Investors are heading into the shortened Thanksgiving trading week still debating the odds of an interest-rate cut. On Monday, Christopher Waller joined another influential policymaker, John Williams, in say he’s advocating an interest-rate cut in December. Investors put the chances of a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming Dec. 9-10 policy meeting at about 75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed officials appear deeply divided over whether another reduction will be appropriate following cuts in September and October.
As we head toward the end of another calendar year, commodities futures prices across nearly every asset class have experienced periods of price volatility to extreme highs – like stock indexes, gold, silver, Bitcoin, coffee, cocoa, cattle – and lows – like grains, natural gas and sugar. Many of these included all-time high/low prices. For these to have occurred within a single year are the likes of which we’ve never scene. Don’t be surprised to see outsize volatility remain in the futures markets into 2026.
There’s a growing thinking that in geopolitics, we’re seeing a quickening trend toward deglobalization where global institutions are shifting away from each other and protectionist policies – like tariffs and the consolidation of supply chains – are accelerating. As well, the risk of a major geopolitical conflict is increasing. Commodity futures will continue to be the vehicle to trade that volatility – in all probability for many months to come.
Livestock:
Several front and deferred month Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures closed limit down on today following news over the weekend that Tyson Foods, the largest meat company in the U.S., will be closing a large beef processing plant in Nebraska and reducing production at a Texas plant.
Equity Indexes:
Stock index futures stuck to its risk-on rally on Friday with strong follow-through today to start the shortened Thanksgiving trading week. The Dec. E-mini Nasdaq was up over 2.5%, its biggest daily jump since May. The E-mini S&P 500 advanced more than 1.5% and the E-mini Dow Jones put on nearly 0.5%.
Cryptocurrency:
Dec. Bitcoin futures also rose as it looked to bust out of a month-long slump. It was last seen hovering above $89,000 after falling near $80,000 late last week.
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