USDA Numbers, Brazilian Real, Levels & Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 1st, 2025

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USDA Numbers from Today

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Tomorrow, we start July with a plethora of reports as we will have a short trading week with 4th of July on Friday.

USDA pegged this year’s planted corn acreage at 95.203 million acres, with soybeans at 83.380 million – both coming in slightly below USDA’s March 31 estimate and below the average pre-report trade guess. The soybean acreage may come in even lower in August, based on our expectations that the late wheat harvest will prevent some double-cropped soybeans to get planted.

That likely would not have fully been accounted for in this June 1 survey. All wheat acreage rose slightly, with small gains across the board for winter and spring wheat. None of these acreage numbers are really market movers, other than the fact that an even lower soybean acreage estimate leaves us more vulnerable to a weather scare.

The June 1 quarterly stocks survey results were relatively close to pre-report estimates as well, although both soybeans and wheat came in a bit higher than expected. The corn, soybean and wheat stocks estimate suggest less residual usage, which translates into less feed usage for wheat for the previous marketing year, with implications then for the current year as well.

That’s been a pattern for USDA in recent years, suggesting that perhaps it is under-estimating the size of U.S. wheat crops. But overall, this is one of the tamer June 30 sets of reports that I’ve seen in a while, with the market now moving on to trade weather, potential trade agreements, and biofuel policy.

USDA inspected 53.9 million bushels of corn for export in the week ending June 26, along with 8.3 million bushels of soybeans, 16 million bushels of wheat, and 0.4 million bushels of grain sorghum. Marketing year to date export inspections total 2.163 billion bushels, up 490 million bushels or 29% from the previous year’s pace, and up 138 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target for the marketing year that ends on August 31.

As such, look for USDA to increase its old-crop corn export target again in its July WASDE crop report, although the trade is now focused on new crop growing conditions. The gap continues to grow week to week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.685 billion bushels, up 158 million bushels or 10% from the previous year’s pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 66 million bushels, but that gap continues to shrink each week.

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Brazilian Real

The weekly Brazilian real chart established a long term low last fall. Now, on the correction higher, we have activated upside PriceCount objectives to aim for.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 1st, 2025

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll, & Powell; 3 Poised to Drive Market Volatility in Triple Threat!

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USDA

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1236

  • The Week Ahead – Non-Farm Payroll, Prospective Plantings and Fed Chair Powell
  • Futures 102 – Intro to Crude Oil Futures
  • Hot Market of the Week – Bloomberg Commodity (CRB) Index
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Combo Breakout Swing System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Non Farm Payroll Friday!

non farm payroll

June gold is front month!

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

USDA, Non Farm Payroll, Prospective Plantings and Fed Chair Powell?

USDA

One of the most impactful Agricultural reports of the year will be released Monday at 11:00 am CDT. The Prospective Plantings report and Grain Stocks released by the USDA will offer a needed insight into prospective acreage plantings for grains and oilseeds.

I have included commentary from The Progressive Farmers’ DTN top analyst for your review: DTN Pre-Report analysis

usda

More volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting, as they have been, to the Global Tariff talk.

Non Farm Payroll

Highlights next week will include the aforementioned Grain report. Non farm Payroll (NFP) Friday followed by Fed Chair J. Powell and other Fed Speakers. This may be the final Q4 2024 Earnings guidance as we will see a mere 67 releases the entire week.

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

 Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. Quiet
  • Wed. Quiet
  • Thu. Conagra, Constellation Brands
  • Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon.    Bostic 12:45 CDT, Barr 2:10 CDT,
  • Tues.    Kugler 7:40 CDT, Williams 8:05 CDT ,
  • Wed.    Kugler 3:30 CDT
  • Thu.     Jefferson 11:30 CDT, Cook 1:30 CDT
  • Fri.       Fed Chair J. Powell 10:25 CDT, Barr 11:00 CDT, Waller 11:45 CDT

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, USDA Prospecting Plantings and Grain Stocks
  • Tue. Redbook, ISM Mfg. Final, JOLTS, Dallas Fed.,
  • Wed. EIA Crude Stocks, ADP, Factory Orders
  • Thur. Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Svcs Final, EIA Nat Gas
  • Fri. Non-Farm Payroll

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Futures 102: Introduction to Crude Oil futures

Course overview

crude oil

Today’s energy crude oil market is truly global. From West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to Brent and DME Oman, the crude oil market fuels many of the world’s leading economies and impact nearly every nation. Energy crude oil futures and options provide the tools the industry needs to manage risk.

Explore the key concepts and structure of today’s energy markets, including the factors that affect supply and demand and move prices. Learn how to use these instruments to hedge exposure and unlock opportunities.

Start FREE Course Now

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a basket of 24 commodities spread across energy, grains, softs, livestock, industrial and precious metals. The weekly chart has developed a 2-year sideways range of trade. IF the chart can break out to the topside, there are upside PriceCount objectives in place which suggest that this index would have significant potential to run.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Combo Breakout 1 Trading System

Market Sector: Diversified / Multiple

Markets Traded:  C , KW , S , W , CL , HO , NG , RB , KC , SB , FGBL , TU , FV , BP , EC , JY , SF , DX , FESX , GC , EMD , NQ , RTY , ES , YM ,

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $50,000

Developer Fee per contract: $200.00 Monthly Subscription

System Description: 

Portfolio Combo Breakout I consists of 5-6 daytrade and swing strategies using different symbols, timeframes, and session templates. All strategies are developed by simple, structured, and proven breakout models based on strong fundamental logics.

All strategies are fully robustness tested as well as stress tested with no position sizing, more contracts can be traded. The 5-6 strategies have very low correlations (Less than 0.1) in order to achieve smoother portfolio equity curve.

Combo Breakout I is specially designed to trade with Combo Breakout II and Combo Breakout III for their low correlations in the portfolio level.

Get Started

Learn More

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Disclaimer: The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”.

A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you.

You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position.

If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for March 31st, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com 

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.

You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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