Posted By: Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
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5. Economic Reports for Friday December 7, 2012
Monthly unemployment figures to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM Eastern time
The Following is provided by our friends at www.LiveSquawk.com
|The Labor Department will release the November jobs data on Friday at 13:30 GMT.|
|Nonfarm payrolls increased 171,000 in October and job gains for the previous two months were revised up to show 84,000 more positions created than previously reported. There were job gains almost across the board, with the exception of government, where payrolls fell 13,000 after three months of increase. Manufacturing payrolls rebounded and construction jobs jumped 17,000, the most since January thanks to a pick-up in home building activity. The unemployment rate edged up by a tenth of a percentage point to 7.9 percent.|
|U.S. job growth likely slowed sharply in November as superstorm Sandy disrupted economic activity, making it hard get a clear picture of a labor market that has also been hobbled by fears of government austerity. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased only 93,000 last month, a sharp step-down from October’s 171,000 job gain, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.9 percent.That would be the fewest number of jobs in five months, but economists blame the anticipated pull-back on the monster storm, which lashed the densely populated East Coast late in October. While it is difficult to quantify the storm’s influence on payrolls in November, economists estimate it could subtract anything between 25,000 and 75,000 jobs. (Source: Reuters)|
|“It is important to remember that the impact of Sandy on total nonfarm payrolls is temporary and should not be blamed for the woes of the current labor market recovery,” said Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Securities in New York.”Had we not experienced the kind of disruption that Sandy brought to bear, we would have seen at least a recurrence if not an increase in the number of jobs added in November,” said Patrick O’Keefe, head of economic research at J.H. Cohn in Roseland, New Jersey. “The underlying trend temporarily got disrupted by the storm, but it’s still a very tepid recovery,” he added.
“Even absent Sandy, the economy is not growing at the rate they would like to see so that is reason for them to continue with more quantitative easing,” said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.
|RECENT LABOUR INDICATORS|
|Jobless ClaimsThe number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a third straight week last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week’s figure was revised to show 2,000 more applications than previously reported. Last week’s drop brought them back to their pre-superstorm Sandy’s 360,000-370,000 range. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 380,000 last week.
The report for last week won’t have any impact on tomorrow’s payroll figure, which was tallied in mid-November. The table below shows the number of claims filed throughout the month of November:
|ADPU.S. private-sector employers added 118,000 jobs in November, shy of economists’ expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 125,000 jobs. October’s private payrolls were revised slightly down to an increase of 157,000 from the previously reported 158,000.
Andrew Wilkinson of Miller Tabak notes, ‘Diving deeper into ADP’s private payroll report indicates that Hurricane Sandy’s impact might not be as big as economists are expecting for the government’s non-farm payroll report due out Friday. Sandy most likely cost 86,000 jobs in November, meaning ADP could have checked in around 204,000.That would have been the best jobs number since February.’ ‘We think this affirms our own view of the labor market that regardless of the fiscal cliff, hiring has recently accelerated,’ Wilkinson added.
Planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose for the third month in a row in November, partly driven by the bankruptcy of Hostess Brands, according to a report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Employers announced 57,081 job cuts last month, the highest level since May and up nearly 20 percent from 47,724 in October. November’s job cuts were also up 34.4 percent from the 42,474 seen a year ago.
The bankruptcy of Twinkies maker Hostess in November accounted for 18,500 of the jobs lost. The computer industry, which has led layoffs for the year, cut 3,313 jobs last month. “Job cuts this year have really been driven by a handful of large-scale cuts,” Rick Cobb, executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. The approach of the Christmas holidays does not necessarily offer respite, Cobb said, pointing to the 11,000 job cuts Citigroup announced on Wednesday as an example.
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October’s rate.
Gallup believe their seasonally adjusted unemployment rate – the closest comparison it has to the official numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – suggests that the BLS will report another increase when it releases its numbers Friday. However, ‘It is possible that some of the November increase in unemployment is the result of scaled-back holiday hiring, in which case the BLS may apply a smaller adjustment factor than it has in the past,’ they note.
‘The increase in unemployment in November is a change from the positive momentum seen in recent months. However, it is also possible that October’s dramatic improvement was temporary, and November’s reading is a continuation of the earlier trend. The trend in future months will be an important indicator of the true momentum of the job climate,’ the pollster writes.
|Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Gallup, Trading Economics|
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5. Economic Reports
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