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Trading Levels and Reports for December 7, 2012

 

Jump to a section in this post:

1. Market Commentary
2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Economic Reports for Friday December 7, 2012

 

Hello Traders,

Monthly unemployment figures to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM Eastern time

The Following is provided by our friends at www.LiveSquawk.com

The Labor Department will release the November jobs data on Friday at 13:30 GMT.
PREVIOUS DATA
Nonfarm payrolls increased 171,000 in October and job gains for the previous two months were revised up to show 84,000 more positions created than previously reported. There were job gains almost across the board, with the exception of government, where payrolls fell 13,000 after three months of increase. Manufacturing payrolls rebounded and construction jobs jumped 17,000, the most since January thanks to a pick-up in home building activity. The unemployment rate edged up by a tenth of a percentage point to 7.9 percent.
EXPECTATIONS
U.S. job growth likely slowed sharply in November as superstorm Sandy disrupted economic activity, making it hard get a clear picture of a labor market that has also been hobbled by fears of government austerity. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased only 93,000 last month, a sharp step-down from October’s 171,000 job gain, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.9 percent.That would be the fewest number of jobs in five months, but economists blame the anticipated pull-back on the monster storm, which lashed the densely populated East Coast late in October. While it is difficult to quantify the storm’s influence on payrolls in November, economists estimate it could subtract anything between 25,000 and 75,000 jobs. (Source: Reuters)
ECONOMIST OPINION
“It is important to remember that the impact of Sandy on total nonfarm payrolls is temporary and should not be blamed for the woes of the current labor market recovery,” said Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Securities in New York.”Had we not experienced the kind of disruption that Sandy brought to bear, we would have seen at least a recurrence if not an increase in the number of jobs added in November,” said Patrick O’Keefe, head of economic research at J.H. Cohn in Roseland, New Jersey. “The underlying trend temporarily got disrupted by the storm, but it’s still a very tepid recovery,” he added. 

“Even absent Sandy, the economy is not growing at the rate they would like to see so that is reason for them to continue with more quantitative easing,” said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

RECENT LABOUR INDICATORS
Jobless ClaimsThe number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a third straight week last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week’s figure was revised to show 2,000 more applications than previously reported. Last week’s drop brought them back to their pre-superstorm Sandy’s 360,000-370,000 range. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 380,000 last week. 

The report for last week won’t have any impact on tomorrow’s payroll figure, which was tallied in mid-November. The table below shows the number of claims filed throughout the month of November:

Date (Week Ending) Initial Jobless Claims
11/30 370.0
11/23 395.0
11/16 416.0
11/9 451.0
11/2 361.0
ADPU.S. private-sector employers added 118,000 jobs in November, shy of economists’ expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 125,000 jobs. October’s private payrolls were revised slightly down to an increase of 157,000 from the previously reported 158,000.

 

Andrew Wilkinson of Miller Tabak notes, ‘Diving deeper into ADP’s private payroll report indicates that Hurricane Sandy’s impact might not be as big as economists are expecting for the government’s non-farm payroll report due out Friday. Sandy most likely cost 86,000 jobs in November, meaning ADP could have checked in around 204,000.That would have been the best jobs number since February.’ ‘We think this affirms our own view of the labor market that regardless of the fiscal cliff, hiring has recently accelerated,’ Wilkinson added.

 

Challenger Jobs

 

Planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose for the third month in a row in November, partly driven by the bankruptcy of Hostess Brands, according to a report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Employers announced 57,081 job cuts last month, the highest level since May and up nearly 20 percent from 47,724 in October. November’s job cuts were also up 34.4 percent from the 42,474 seen a year ago.

 

The bankruptcy of Twinkies maker Hostess in November accounted for 18,500 of the jobs lost. The computer industry, which has led layoffs for the year, cut 3,313 jobs last month. “Job cuts this year have really been driven by a handful of large-scale cuts,” Rick Cobb, executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. The approach of the Christmas holidays does not necessarily offer respite, Cobb said, pointing to the 11,000 job cuts Citigroup announced on Wednesday as an example.

 

Gallup

 

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October’s rate.

 

Gallup believe their seasonally adjusted unemployment rate – the closest comparison it has to the official numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – suggests that the BLS will report another increase when it releases its numbers Friday. However, ‘It is possible that some of the November increase in unemployment is the result of scaled-back holiday hiring, in which case the BLS may apply a smaller adjustment factor than it has in the past,’ they note.

 

‘The increase in unemployment in November is a change from the positive momentum seen in recent months. However, it is also possible that October’s dramatic improvement was temporary, and November’s reading is a continuation of the earlier trend. The trend in future months will be an important indicator of the true momentum of the job climate,’ the pollster writes.

RANGE
Non-Farm Payrolls (‘000s)
Median Estimate 86
High Estimate 145
Low Estimate 15
Number of Estimates 87
Source: Bloomberg
Unemployment Rate (%)
Median Estimate 7.9
High Estimate 8.1
Low Estimate 7.9
Number of Estimates 87
Source: Bloomberg
ECONOMIST ESTIMATES
Economist Firm Non-Farm Payrolls (‘000s) As of
Jeffrey Herzog Oxford Economics Ltd

127

30-Nov-12

Richard F Moody Regions Financial Corp

116

30-Nov-12

Christophe Barraud Market Securities

58

03-Dec-12

Signe Roed-Frederiksen Danske Bank A/S

125

29-Nov-12

Philip L Miller SISR

43

30-Nov-12

Hugo Ferraz Penteado Santander Asset Mgmt

75

30-Nov-12

Jeavon Lolay Lloyds Bank Wbm

85

29-Nov-12

Christoph Schroeter Bayerische Landesbank

107

30-Nov-12

Weidensteiner/Balz Commerzbank AG

110

30-Nov-12

Bernd Krampen Nord/LB

85

29-Nov-12

Acciones y Valores

86

04-Dec-12

Sherry Cooper BMO Capital Markets

120

30-Nov-12

Briefing.com

80

30-Nov-12

Mufteeva/Julien Natixis

100

05-Dec-12

Stone & McCarthy Research

75

30-Nov-12

Dirk Chlench Landesbank BW

90

30-Nov-12

Dupuis/Genereux Desjardins Group

110

30-Nov-12

Hugh Johnson Hugh Johnson Advisors

110

21-Nov-12

Ken Mayland ClearView Economics

75

30-Nov-12

Bill Cheney John Hancock Financial

118

30-Nov-12

Peter Morici University of Maryland

135

26-Nov-12

Thomas Lam OSK Group/DMG

136

30-Nov-12

Russell Price Ameriprise Financial Inc

90

05-Dec-12

David Greenlaw Morgan Stanley & Co.

15

30-Nov-12

John Silvia Wells Fargo & Co.

65

05-Dec-12

Scott Anderson Bank of the West

124

03-Dec-12

Joerg Angele Raiffeisenbank International

50

30-Nov-12

Nathaniel Karp BBVA

120

03-Dec-12

Michael Carey Credit Agricole CIB

80

30-Nov-12

Harm Bandholz UniCredit Research

110

29-Nov-12

Brian M. Jones Societe Generale

122

03-Dec-12

Smith/Sweet Moody’s Analytics

70

05-Dec-12

Goldman, Sachs & Co.

75

03-Dec-12

Tom Porcelli RBC Capital Markets

95

29-Nov-12

Sean Incremona 4CAST Ltd.

75

03-Dec-12

P. Ashworth/P. Dales Capital Economics

75

29-Nov-12

Guy LeBas Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

112

30-Nov-12

Intesa Sanpaolo

85

30-Nov-12

Derek Holt Scotiabank

100

30-Nov-12

Bantleon Bank AG Bantleon Bank AG

85

30-Nov-12

Steven Wood Insight Economics

25

30-Nov-12

Ryan Wang HSBC Markets

125

30-Nov-12

Gabriel Casillas Banorte-IXE

130

03-Dec-12

Besch/Luetje DekaBank

100

30-Nov-12

Joe LaVorgna Deutsche Bank Securities

25

21-Nov-12

Harris/Coffin/Cummins UBS

50

28-Nov-12

Ward McCarthy Jefferies & Co.

65

29-Nov-12

Bayer/Heidrich/Riefer Deutsche Postbank AG

120

29-Nov-12

Colm Fitzgerald Paragon Research

62

04-Dec-12

Stephen Stanley Pierpont Securities LLC

60

26-Nov-12

Wesbury/Stein First Trust Advisors

67

06-Dec-12

Michael Feroli J.P. Morgan Chase

100

03-Dec-12

Pierre-Olivier Beffy Exane

115

30-Nov-12

E. Green/M. Mulraine TD Securities

105

05-Dec-12

Mike Englund Action Economics

130

30-Nov-12

Julia Coronado BNP Paribas

25

29-Nov-12

Neal Soss Credit Suisse

70

30-Nov-12

Francesca Panelli Banca Aletti & C spa

130

29-Nov-12

Dean Maki Barclays

50

29-Nov-12

MET Capital Advisors

30

30-Nov-12

Christopher Low FTN Financial

20

30-Nov-12

David Semmens Standard Chartered

105

30-Nov-12

Peter D’Antonio Citi

80

30-Nov-12

Neil Dutta Renaissance Macro Research

50

29-Nov-12

Matteo Radaelli Hammer Partners SA

95

30-Nov-12

Uwe Duerkop Landesbank Berlin

100

30-Nov-12

Jason Schenker Prestige Economics

130

03-Dec-12

Scott Brown Raymond James

110

03-Dec-12

Avery Shenfeld CIBC World Markets

87

30-Nov-12

Ethan Harris BofA Merrill Lynch Research

60

30-Nov-12

Chris Rupkey Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ

40

03-Dec-12

Ellen Zentner Nomura Securities Intl.

145

30-Nov-12

Nariman Behravesh IHS Global Insight

100

26-Nov-12

Steven Ricchiuto Mizuho Securities

125

03-Dec-12

James Shugg Westpac Banking Co.

70

30-Nov-12

Joshua Shapiro Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.

80

30-Nov-12

Patrick Franke Helaba

100

30-Nov-12

Hiroki Shimazu SMBC Nikko Securities

20

29-Nov-12

Knightley/Carnell/Brosens ING Financial Markets

145

30-Nov-12

Girard/Sharif/Berger RBS Securities Inc.

75

03-Dec-12

Max Clarke IDEAglobal

75

30-Nov-12

Jim O’Sullivan High Frequency Economics

80

03-Dec-12

P. de Bruin/M. Cabezas ABN Amro Inc.

80

30-Nov-12

Stuart Hoffman PNC Bank

140

30-Nov-12

Kevin Harris Informa Global Markets

65

03-Dec-12

Crandall/Jordan Wrightson ICAP

50

21-Nov-12

Stefane Marion National Bank Financial

90

28-Nov-12

Source: Bloomberg
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Gallup, Trading Economics

GOOD TRADING!

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

futures trading numbers for Dec. 7th

 

5. Economic Reports

source:http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

All times are Eastern time Zone (EST)

Date 4:02pm Currency Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Graph
Fri

Dec 7
 2:45am EUR
French Gov Budget Balance
-85.0B
2:45am EUR
French Trade Balance
-4.9B -5.0B
5:00am EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
6:00am EUR
German Industrial Production m/m
-0.4% -1.8%
8:30am USD
Non-Farm Employment Change
89K 171K
8:30am USD
Unemployment Rate
7.9% 7.9%
8:30am USD
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.2% 0.0%
9:55am USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
82.4 82.7
9:55am USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
3.1%
10:00am EUR
German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
3:00pm USD
Consumer Credit m/m
10.4B 11.4B

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.

 

Tags: > > > > > > Posted in: Future Trading News  

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