The Metals are on fire! Are the equities as we close out 2025??

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2
Gold (GC) — Feb(#GC)	4429.60	4474.60	4502.70	4547.70	4575.80
Silver (SI) — Mar. (#SI)	67.64	69.63	70.71	72.70	73.78
Crude Oil (CL) — Jan (#CL)	57.47	57.98	58.24	58.75	59.01
Mar. Bonds (ZB) — Mar (#ZB)	114 12/32	114 27/32	115 8/32	115 23/32	116 4/32

Historically the S&P 500 tends to drift higher between Christmas and New Year’s, but the edge is modest and far from guaranteed in any single year.

christmas

Santa Claus rally basics

The classic “Santa Claus rally” window is the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged about a 1.3% gain over these seven sessions and has been positive roughly 75–80% of the time, meaning up years are more common than down years.

Behavior in the Christmas–New Year gap

Within that seven‑day window, returns are often front‑loaded: strength tends to cluster from just before Christmas through the first couple of days of January, with lower volume and smaller ranges in the very last week of the year.
The week after Christmas typically shows lighter institutional participation and more sideways or gently rising trade, so the “edge” is there but not dramatically stronger than the full seven‑day average.

How reliable is it?

Across decades, the pattern is statistically positive on average, but variability is high and individual years can diverge sharply; for example, 2024–25 saw a “reverse” Santa Claus period where the S&P 500 sold off every business day between Christmas and New Year’s, an historical first.
Studies of daily returns around New Year’s show abnormal strength from about five days before through two days after New Year’s Day, followed by a fade, suggesting any edge is short term and easily overwhelmed by macro or event risk.

Possible drivers

Common explanations include holiday optimism, year‑end fund inflows, tax‑loss harvesting and repositioning, and fewer large institutional orders which can reduce selling pressure.
Because these are behavioral and flows‑driven effects rather than structural rules, they should be treated as a weak tendency rather than a tradable guarantee.

Christmas (Dec 25) Holiday Trading Schedule:

Grains

Wednesday – 12:05 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

Friday – 8:30 AM CT Open

Livestock

Wednesday – 12:15 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

Friday – 8:30 AM CT Open

Interest Rates

Wednesday – 12:15 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

5:00 PM CT Open

Friday – Regular Hours

Equities

Wednesday – 12:15 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

5:00 PM CT Open

Friday – Regular Hours

Energy

Wednesday – 12:45 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

5:00 PM CT Open

Friday – Regular Hours

FX

Wednesday – 12:45 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

5:00 PM CT Open

Friday – Regular Hours

Metals

Wednesday – 12:45 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

5:00 PM CT Open

Friday – Regular Hours

Cryptocurrencies

Wednesday – 12:45 PM CT Close

Thursday – Closed

5:00 PM CT Open

Friday – Regular Hours

Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, FCOJ, Sugar

Thursday – Closed

Canola

Thursday – Closed

U.S. Dollar Index

Thursday – Closed

July – Nov Bean Spread

Sometimes referred to as “the widow maker”, the July – Nov soybean spread completed the second downside PriceCount objective to 13.5 and has consolidated with a sideways trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its break with new sustained lows it first has to contend with the contract lows near 5.0, while the third count would project a potential break to the -5.25 area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Dec. 24th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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