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All time highs on gold futures today!
See both daily and weekly charts below.
On a different note, as the CME raises margins, the day trading margins may be higher as well.
Depending on the trading platform you are using, your day trading margins may be a percent of the overnight margins. If you are using the E-Futures International, then your day trading margins between 7:45 AM central and 3:30 PM central are as below:
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
#Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology
Volume is reported for all futures contracts. It is calculated by counting the number of contracts that have been bought and sold over a given time. You can track volume using different time intervals like daily or intraday.
When a futures contract is traded, whether bought or sold, it counts towards volume for that contract.
For example, a trader closes a short position in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures contract by buying one contract in the ES, so volume will increase by 1.
Traders often use and interpret the rise or decline of volume in a futures contract to help make trading decisions.
Volume can give important information to traders such as:
Indicate the price levels at which traders are more or less interested in trading a futures contract
During the roll, indicate to traders when to switch to trading the front month futures contract as volume decreases in the expiring contract
Identify the times of day when a futures contract is most liquid
Price Levels
When volume changes as price of a futures contract moves towards certain levels, this can indicate to a trader that a change in direction may occur. Some traders may use this information to indicate whether to buy or sell at those key levels.
Contract Roll
During the futures rollover, traders pay attention to the contract that is taking the higher levels of volume. Traders use this information to determine when to start trading the next month contract. As volume decreases in the expiring contract, trading will shift to the next available month contract.
For example, say the June ES (E-mini S&P 500) futures contract is about to expire and September will become the new front month. On the Thursday of rollover week, watch how the June contract starts to lose volume and the September contract begins to pick up volume. When the September contract has more volume than the June contract, it is time to switch to the September contract.
Active Periods
Traders typically prefer higher volume times to trade, as it means that more traders are actively interested in buying and selling. When volume is high, the bid-ask spread is typically smaller, orders are filled faster and less gaps may exist between ticks.
For example, markets can have lower volume between the hours of 12:00 p.m.-2:00 p.m. ET, before major economic releases; conversely, market often see higher volume around the open and close of the trading day.
Traders also can look at average daily volume over a longer time period, such as a few weeks or months, to see if the markets currently are in a lower or higher volume than is typical.
Summary
What volume can’t show however, is whether traders are buying or selling, or opening or closing a position.
For example, if the ES contract is trading at 2375 and suddenly pushes down to 2360 while volume increases, the volume that comes into the market could be from traders opening new long positions at key levels of support. That could indicate a bullish sentiment. Volume also can be generated by liquidation of exiting long positions or opening of new short positions, a possible bearish indication.
A spike in volume at 2360 doesn’t necessarily mean that buyers are coming into the market and that the price will bounce.
Volume data is readily available for each futures contract and for the market as a whole. Although traders may use volume in different ways to interpret how to trade, volume can be an important factor to help inform your trading decisions.
Hot Market of the Week – June Bonds
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The June 30 Year T-Bond break found temporary stability at its second downside PriceCount objective recently. Now, the chart has resumed its slide into new lows which, if sustained, would project a run to the third count in the 109^20 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
If you are trading stock index futures, note price action has been VERY choppy during the day session as most earnings come out after the close…
Coffee and Coca volatility is as high as I have seen in recent months. Large intraday and overnight moves in both, as much as +/- 8% per day!
We have GDP and home sales tomorrow.
Big pullback in both silver and gold and the key question is: Was this profit taking/ deflation of geo political fear and GOOD entry to the long side? OR…is this the near term top for both markets??
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Futures traders with positions in deliverable futures contracts keep an eye on the calendar for important dates at the end of the month. First Notice Day (FND) and Last Trading Day (LTD) for many futures contracts are close at hand. Make sure you steer safely clear of receiving delivery notices for physical commodities (FND), or greatly reduced liquidity (LTD). If you’re unsure, contact your Cannon Trading Co. broker.
The economic calendar for the rest of the week is scarce with Thursday’s Q1 GDP report taking center stage.
Prospects for a fed rate cut announcement at the Fed’s 4/30-5/1 meeting, as well as its mid-June meeting have all but evaporated and many Fed watchers expect the central bank to keep its “higher for longer” mantra in place for most and possibly all of 2024.
Worries over a wider Middle East conflict have subsided and traders are discounting the risk of further escalations. Case in point, June gold lost ±67 per ounce (±2%) yesterday after posting its latest all-time record high close of $2,413.80/ounce on Friday. Iran downplayed Israel’s retaliatory drone strike against it, in what appeared to be a move aimed at averting regional escalation.
Energies:
The ±$2.50/barrel selloff in May crude oil and the ±¢9.75/gallon May RBOB gasoline futures last week likely signaled the markets do not see an Iranian supply disruption in the near future, so the markets will be given to focusing on global energy demand going forward
Softs:
May Cocoa futures declined sharply yesterday and today, down nearly $1,300/ton (a $13,000 per contract move) marking its worst two-day slump since February. This after a 3-day / Wed.-Fri. rally of $1,635/ton to its all-time record high close of 11,878/ton on Friday. ICE U.S. has set the initial margin requirement to $11,260 per contract.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
No Fed speakers this week, it is the blackout period in advance of next weeks FED meeting and rates decision.
Look for earnings to move the market this week MSFT, GOOG, META, XOM, Visa, TSLA
Last week, my colleague posted an article about FOMO just about the same time a client of mine was battling his own fear of missing out.
Of course I asked my client if , after redacting account information, he wouldn’t mind if I shared his “journal Entry” with everyone.
John,
I’ll give you an explanation of what happened yesterday. After we talked I left for my job. I returned at 2:30 and saw that I missed all the “short” activity yesterday.
Disappointed, I made the mistake of trying to catch up . I had several positive trades and then several negative trades that put me in the negative for the day.
I was active in a “short” trade, sitting at my desk. I nodded off. I don’t know how long, but it must have been enough seconds that the price action had dramatically turned “long”. Unfortunately, I nodded off with my hand on my mouse. It seems that I touched the mouse and now I discovered that I had clicked a second contract. I was hoping to recover the $1800 loss but it was too late.
1. I went back to practice simulation. First on the 15th from 9 AM and with 3 clicks I had made $2300. Then stopped while ahead.
2. Today I again started practice at 9 AM and within 2 hours made $530. Then stopped while ahead My mistakes. What do I learn from this:
1. Don’t fall asleep while trading.
2. Don’t fall asleep with your finger hovering over the mouse.
3. Stop when you’re ahead and don’t try to make money on the short price action movements.
4. Reminding again to only trade with the trend.
One of the most common pitfalls of traders in Futures Trading is the fear of missing out (FOMO).
Understanding FOMO in Trading:
FOMO, or the fear of missing out, is a powerful emotion that can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions.
Recognizing the signs of FOMO is crucial for traders to maintain a disciplined approach to their strategies.
The Role of Emotions in Trading:
Emotions play a significant role in trading, influencing decisions and reactions to market movements.
Acknowledging emotions like greed, fear, and excitement is the first step towards effective emotional control.
Strategies for Controlling Emotions:
1/ Establishing a Trading Plan:
Having a well-defined trading plan helps set clear goals and guidelines, reducing the influence of emotions.
2/ Setting Realistic Expectations:
Realistic expectations prevent disappointment and impulsive actions based on unrealistic goals.
3/ Utilizing Risk Management:
Implementing risk management strategies ensures that trades are within acceptable risk limits.
4/ Taking Breaks:
Stepping away from the screen during intense market movements can provide a fresh perspective and prevent emotional reactions.
Mindfulness Techniques:
Incorporating mindfulness practices, such as deep breathing or meditation, can help traders stay focused and calm during stressful trading situations.
Learn from Past Trades:
Analyzing past trades, especially those influenced by emotions, provides valuable insights for improvement.
Keeping a trading journal helps identify patterns in emotional responses and areas for growth.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Powell spoke and stock index futures traded in a volatile, zig zag type of trading most of the day unable to break one way or the other and closing near the unchange.
On the daily chart, both the SP and NASDAQ are noticing more pressure to the downside.
One of the keys for day Traders is to try and establish early on what type of day trading environment they are in.
Is this going to be a trend day it is this going to be a choppy low volatility trading day? is the day unfolding has a potential to be a volatile two-sided type of trading day?
Being aware of the top of trading day that is unfolding in front of you can help you decide which strategies to apply on that trading day.
Knowing what reports are coming out. the general direction of the long term charts can help you.
Different strategies will work better in different type of trading environments.
On a different note, softs, i.e. Cocoa, cotton, Coffee , Sugar, OJ are experiencing much higher volatility than historical norms. Cocoa just dropped close to 8% today after trading above the historical mark of $100 per metric ton.
below you will see a daily chart of Coffee futures and possible future direction.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
A bit of a departure from the usual Monday blog bites. The planting season in the northern hemisphere is under way so a quick review of the importance of Hedging follows:
How Important is Hedging for Farmers?
For farmers, especially those involved in producing commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and livestock, the prices of these products can fluctuate significantly due to various factors such as weather conditions, global demand, geopolitical events, and market speculation. These fluctuations can directly impact a farmer’s profitability and financial stability. Here’s why hedging is so important:
Price Stability: Futures trading allows farmers to lock in prices for their produce or livestock at predetermined levels, providing them with a sense of stability and predictability in their revenue streams.
Risk Management: By hedging, farmers can protect themselves against adverse price movements. For example, if a farmer expects the price of corn to decrease before their harvest, they can take a short position in corn futures to offset potential losses.
Budgeting and Planning: Knowing the approximate revenue from their crops or livestock enables farmers to budget effectively, plan future investments, and manage expenses with more confidence.
Access to Capital: Having predictable revenue streams through hedging can make it easier for farmers to secure financing from lenders as they demonstrate a more stable financial outlook.
Competitive Advantage: Farmers who hedge can often compete more effectively in the market by offering consistent pricing to buyers, thereby securing long-term contracts and relationships.
Futures trading serves as a powerful tool for farmers to manage price risk and ensure a more stable financial outlook. By hedging their crops like wheat, corn, soybeans, and livestock, farmers can mitigate the impact of market volatility, plan their budgets effectively, and compete more confidently in the agricultural sector. Understanding and implementing various hedging strategies empower farmers to navigate unpredictable market conditions while safeguarding their profitability.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Econ Data Mon- Retail Sales , Tues Housing Starts, Bldg Permits , Thu. Jobless claims, Existing home sales..
quiet on the fed speaker front
No Congressional action to speak of
The U.S. dollar index this morning forged another higher high and reached the highest level since early November.
With the June gold futures contract breaking a string of new all-time highs (eight straight days) yesterday, the market is facing the first definitive corrective environment since the middle of last month.
The bearish sentiment in financial futures (30-yr. T-bond, 10-yr. T-note) is escalating dramatically and could become overdone soon with some chatter in the market suggesting there might not be a single rate cuts this year.
Crude oil may see support this week from renewed talk of an imminent Iranian retaliation (as per U.S. officials) for the Israeli attack in Syria. U.S. officials have openly suggested Iranian retaliation against Israel is likely soon. Fears of disrupted supply remain front and center.
Trading Resource of the Week: Trading Videos, Instant Viewing
Watch a series of short videos, where our VP, Ilan Levy-Mayer shares his personal preferences and opinions on different trading topics.
· Ever wondered when to exit a trade? Take a look at what Ilan has to share on Bollinger Bands and a study called PARABOLICS
· Some common uses you can make of support and resistance levels.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The March 20th Chart of the Day highlighted May crude oil had completed its first upside PriceCount objective. Now, the chart is consolidating after satisfying its second upside PriceCount objective. A this point, IF the chart can sustain further gains, the third count would project a possible run to the 94.82 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The CPI report for March 2024 will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday at 7:30 a.m. CDT. As of February’s CPI report, annual inflation is 3.2%, or 3.8% excluding food and energy. That data compares with the FOMC’s annual inflation target of 2%.
What To Expect
These data set move the Equity, Bond, Metals and currency markets the most as the market drivers are directly related to what the FED will do next with Interest rates this summer. Provided inflation comes at a monthly rate close to 0.3% or lower for March, that should be sufficient for the FOMC to keep its plan to start cutting interest rates this summer. If the report shows a 0.4% monthly increase or greater, that would be a concern. It would suggest relatively high inflation readings seen in January, and to a lesser extent in February, are perhaps more of a trend. Here is your BLS CPI Data center https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Monthly inflation at or below 0.2% would generally be considered positive news, perhaps giving more conviction to rate cutting plans. Still the CPI release is just one data point that the Fed will use to assess how inflation is trending. The FOMC will also keep a close eye on the jobs market, which so far has been strong enough to enable the Fed to be patient in considering interest rate cuts. A slowdown in job growth might matter for the Fed’s plans as much as upcoming inflation data releases.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
