Whether a person or a firm, a commodity broker is there to help you with your commodity trading needs. They either have a team of commodity traders under them or a platform that they manage electronically.
For all commodity trading beginners, commodity brokers are a point of contact that can be approached with individual commodity trading needs. To do good in commodity trading, it is important to take the advice of the commodity broker seriously. Under this category archive we discuss everything about commodity brokers and their expert skills.
We at Cannon Trading are there to help your commodity trading requirements. Whether you want to consult us and seek advice or to play a more active role for you in the markets, we are there to serve you with the best of our services. It is essential for you to choose only a certified broker and so, you can always trust us when it comes to qualifying on all quality parameters. No matter which commodity interests you, our trading experts give you the right and real-time advice always. Read our archive; share posts with your friends; or bookmark this page to stay up-to-date on commodity brokers.
The FED is your friend plus the trend is your friend. The Federal Reserve is in an easing cycle which is a positive for the markets. I would like to see that trend continue and there be no change in the Fed’s stance, we don’t want to see economic reports which would hint at inflation creeping back up. Federal Reserve officials debated whether to lower interest rates by a quarter or half of a percentage point last month. Almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation had diminished, and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased. Inflation is broadly trending down. Markets had to digest a warmer-than-expected CPI report and a one-year high print in initial claims, rising geopolitical risks, along with higher oil prices and yields, yet stocks have been able to make new highs.
With markets at all-time highs, earnings season can be a boost or a test of lower support zones. All eyes will be on the earnings numbers and what executives have to say about their outlooks. In the week ahead, a number of influential companies are set to report. While the trend in stocks remains bullish, the environment is not without its risks and valuation is full. The forward P/E on the S&P 500 currently stands at roughly 22 versus the 10-year average of 17.7, per FactSet. Elevated valuation is largely driven by expectations for strong earnings growth and easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Therefore, Q3 earnings season, which unofficially kicked off, will likely need to deliver strong results to keep this bull market going. High earnings valuations are fully priced in this growth story, any miss on overall earnings can generate a valuation re-set and a pullback. I would also like to look at Thursday’s Retail Sales report. The last couple of Retail Sales reports have been stronger than expected, so this data point will provide a good read on the state of the U.S. consumer. Friday CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed a 0.3% month/month drop in consumer spending, which could suggest a soft Retail Sales report. If so, this could be enough to trigger a profit-taking pullback in stocks.
If NVDA can obtain a new all-time high, or the small cap’s Russell can break out to fresh two-year highs next week, these would likely be near-term bullish catalysts. I would like to see a continuation of the uptrend; However, I am very cautious as any negative news from earnings or the retail’s report can change the momentum until the next catalyst.
S&P fifth straight weekly gain. The market is hitting this level without much help from tech stocks and the Magnificent 7 as the rally broadens out to the financials in response to positive third-quarter numbers from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and BlackRock.
Multiples are high and portfolio managers are saying they’re uncomfortable buying at these levels, but there is a lot of money coming in from the sidelines therefore they feel that they have to participate. The index level feels expensive as well, I hear analysts are looking for mid cap size companies.
Banks delivered earnings on Friday and their prices went up, which is a good start for earnings season. Year to date; JPM is up 31%, C 28%, GS 33%, BAC 25%, WFC 24%. That’s higher than the S&P YTD.
Cybersecurity: is making new highs, see ETF – BUG.
Money is coming out of China-related stocks on some disappointment around stimulus. Those dollars are rotating out of China tech names such as Alibaba and moving into the U.S. tech giants.
Bond yields rose this week, primarily driven by the warmer-than-expected inflation data. Two-year Treasury yields increased to 3.955% from 3.923% while 10-year yields tacked on roughly 10 basis points to 4.085% from 3.981%
Earnings & Economic reports this week: Monday, Oct.14: Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Tuesday, Oct. 15: Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), UnitedHealth (UNH), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) United Airlines (UAL), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and JB Hunt(JBHT) Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)
Wednesday, Oct.16: Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), ASML (ASML), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens (CFG) and Prologis (PLD) Alcoa (AA), PPG Industries(PPG), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Discover (DFS) and Crown Castle (CCI) Discover Financial Services (DFS), Equifax Inc. (EFX)
Taiwan Semi (TSM), Travelers (TRV), Elevance (ELV), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Blackstone (BX), Truist (TFC) and KeyCorp(KEY) Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Crown Holdings (CCK) Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV),
Friday, Oct. 18: Housing Starts & Building Permits. American Express (AXP), SLB (SLB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY), Comerica Inc. (CMA),
Technical Analysis:
While the SPX and DOW made new all-time highs, the Nasdaq 100 did not. But it continued to trend higher this week and is on pace to close less than 2% below the all-time closing high of 20,675, hit back on July 10th. If Nvidia sets fresh all-time highs this could signal to markets that the AI trade is alive and well and should help the NASDAQ, but other AI plays are trading well as well, such as ORCL, AVGO, PLTR.
Small caps: the Russell is heavily weighted on regional banks and health care. The Russell 2000 was the relative outperformer Friday (+1.64%), assisted by several strong earnings reports out of the financial sector Friday. The index trading range is roughly 2,050-2,260. If the Index can notch a fresh two-year closing high this could send a bullish technical signal to the markets that small caps are finally ready to join the party.
Market breadth:closed out the week strongly, with roughly 75% of SPX components trading above their respective 200-day moving averages. No change in market breadth. On a week-over-week basis, the SPX) breadth ticked down to 75.75% from 76.35%, the CCMP ticked up to 44.66% from 44.09%, and the RTY is flat at 55.87% from 55.76%.
Overseas: rates are in the news ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision Thursday. The ECB has cut rates twice in 2024, and analysts expect a third one next week and a fourth in December, Reuters reported.
Bonds: Economy defies gravity, sending bond yields higher. The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations by growing faster than expected. Despite all of the constraints —tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy, weak global growth, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and low consumer confidence. GDP growth has been running at about a 3% annualized pace over the past four quarters. The major driver behind the growth is consumer spending. Supported by steady job and income growth, consumers are spending at a pace that is keeping the economy buoyant. In the Treasury bond market, yields, which generally move inversely to prices, have rebounded on these signs of strength.
What stands out to me: ever since the Microsoft Constellation energy deal, I have been looking for plays in the Energy sector particularly in nuclear power plants. Listen to Brad Gerstner podcast on BG2. I welcome any insight and news on the subject from any of you.
futures I am watching this week:
Have an amazing week.
The outlook contained in this article are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Futures trading is risky and suitable for everyone.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Unleaded Swing Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:
The Week Ahead
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
A relatively Quiet Data week next week, Geopolitics may be the only driver of volatility. One Caveat: the Fed Speakers dialogue may be given much more weight by investors as there will be a lot less noise in the form of Economic Data and earnings from prominent “Magnificent Seven” stocks to drive market volatility.
Prominent Earnings this Week:
Tues, pre-open United Healthcare, B Of A, Goldman Sachs, Citi Group, Johns and Johnson
Wed. Abbott Labs,
Thu. NetFlix Post-Close
FED SPEECHES:
Mon. Kashkari, Waller, 2nd Kashkari.
Tue. Kugler, Bostic
Wed. QUIET
Thu. QUIET
Fri. Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Bostic
Big Economic Data week:
Mon. BANKS CLOSED-Columbus Day National Holiday
Tues. Quiet
Wed. Quiet
Thur. Bus. Inventories, Jobless Claims.
Fri. Housing Starts, Building Permits
Futures 101: Crude Oil – What’s in Store for the next 2 Weeks?
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December heating oil Rallied to its second upside PriceCount objective before correcting. At this point if the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the 3rd count would project a possible run into the 2.59 area
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker With Equities quietly trading in a consolidation phase, Interest rates following, the precious metals ,once again found footing and surprised many traders with their mid-day upside move, Gold higher by $36.00 @ 2689.00, Silver up $1.50 into the $32.50 /Troy OZ range.. The US Dollar @ 100.10 continuing it’s 2.5 month long slide, flirting with 14 month lows of 99.22. Metals should gain additional strength if the dollar falls below that number on a closing basis. Todays Headlines Updated: September 24, 2024 6:12 am Churning hurricane threatening US production, continued Middle East tensions, and Chinese stimulus measures have helped crude oil prices trade higher on Tuesday. Updated: September 24, 2024 7:00 am China’s central bank announced its largest stimulus measures since the pandemic. The bank will lower interest rates and additional funding. However, analysts say very week consumer and business demand for credit will have little response to lower interest rates, and the lack of fiscal stimulus measures will leave the central bank’s response to fall short of jump starting the economy and beating back deflationary environment. Updated: September 24, 2024 7:55 am Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.2% in the first three weeks of September 2024 vs September 2023 **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +4.4% in the week ending September 21 vs yr ago week Updated: September 24, 2024 8:00 am Case Schiller 20 US Metro-Area Home Prices Recap **Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for July Y/Y: +5.9% from the year ago month **Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for July M/M: +0.01% vs prior month Updated: September 24, 2024 9:02 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Headline Recap **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Index: -21.0 ; prior -19.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Shipments Index: -18.0 ; prior -15.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing New Orders: -23.0 ; prior -26.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Employees: -22.0 ; prior -15.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Prices Paid: +3.36 ; prior +2.45 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Prices Received: +1.57 ; prior +1.87 **Richmond Fed September Service Sector Index:-1.0 ; prior -11.0 Updated: September 24, 2024 9:09 am Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Present Situation, Expectations Index Headline Recap **Conference Board September Consumer Confidence Index: 98.7 ; prior revised to 105.6 from 103.3 ; expected 102.8 **Conference Board September Consumer Present Situation Index: 124.3 ; prior revised to 134.6 from 134.4 **Conference Board September Consumer Expectations Index: 81.7 ; prior revised to 86.3 from 82.5 Tomorrows Movers and Shakers New Home Sales Released On 9/25/2024 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2024 US new home sales data for June will be updated Wednesday morning at 9:00 am CT. Analysts expect new home sales month-to-month at a 0.640 mln unit annualized pace, up +3.4%. The prior month’s sales were -11.3% at 0.619 mln unit annual rate. Micron Technology reports after the close
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
#Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology
If you’re active in the stock market and know how to trade and sell to make money then your next step in getting the most out of companies and securities is to find a commodities broker to trade commodity contracts on your behalf, no matter how active traders are using commodity futures. You can find a broker to do the trading on your behalf or get access to trading platforms and advanced tools that let you become a commodity trader on your own. You can turn a profit out of any commodities markets when you have industry at your fingertips and you won’t have to pay massive exchange fees or increase your risk exposure.
If you go with a commodities broker, you’ll have the advantage of all the trading experience he or she has and they’ll ensure that your assets provide derivatives that make you money while they’re executing trades on your behalf. Suppose you prefer to carry out the business of futures trading and futures contracts on your own. In that case, you’ll have access to all exchanges through trading platforms built by experienced traders and investors. There’s no easier way to trade and make a profit in the market and commodities brokers from all over the industry will be there to help you make the right decisions.
Understanding Commodities and Commodity Brokers
To understand what a commodities broker does, you have to understand what a commodity is and it’s not difficult, once you understand that it’s a physical good, unlike stocks or bonds that most people trade. You can think of commodities as precious metals such as gold, energy like crude oil, and foods such as soybeans, corn, and grain. Each one of those has a price and you’ll typically be trading their futures, as opposed to trading the price of grain don’t the day you make the exchange.
People who trade commodities are well-versed in futures markets and have an idea of where the price of something will be on the day the trades are made in the future, meaning your trader is the best source of information on the market. For instance, you likely don’t know what will happen to gold on the London metal exchange. Hence, commodity brokers are best to negotiate commodity contracts on your behalf so you make the most profit off your investment. No matter how many trades you want to exchange with other investors, you’ll have a steady flow of derivatives that your commodity trader or commodities broker gets for you.
Key Characteristics of a Good Commodity Broker
There are a few things to look for in a good commodities broker or commodity trader and the first is that they have lots of educational trader material for their clients to check out so they know what the commodity broker is doing and they’re they’re doing it on their behalf. They should also let their clients make trades on their own without charging exorbitant fees that cut into their derivatives so much they struggle to make money off the markets. While trading commodities will come with fees, they should be fair so everyone from the trader to the brokers benefits from it.
Your commodities broker or trader should give you access to futures trading that you can’t get on your own so you find plenty of value in what they have to offer you while you make your way through the exchanges on their platform. Every trader should have access to educational material to learn what futures trading is and how futures commission merchants fit into the business before they decide to buy their first commodity. Commodities brokers should also be regulated by the National Futures Association, so you can be sure that all commodities and futures are being traded the way they’re supposed to be.
What to Look for in a Commodities Trading Platform
When you want to act as your own trader, instead of commodity brokers trading on your behalf, it’s just as important to check out any platform you’re considering to ensure they’re adhering to National Futures Association rules and that you’ll have access to all the trader information as a broker. It’s a very good idea to seek out a platform that offers the assistance of a commodity broker who doesn’t act as your trader but gives you advice on the futures to buy and sell. This is a well-rounded and balanced approach that leaves you in charge of the final trader decisions while the brokers simply offer you input.
The platform should also have plenty of graphs that you can use to follow the course of the commodity and make an informed guess on where it will be in the future when your trader moves are carried out in the markets. Any commodity broker will tell you that information is their main source of power and that’s what you need to get from the platform you choose to use. It’s the best way to know that your portfolio management choices are sound and that you’ll be making better choices for you than brokers would.
Security and Safety
Finally, whether you choose to let a commodity broker be your trader, or if you’re making the decisions on your own, the platform you use should put your safety and security about everything else they have to offer you, especially since you’re dealing with your livelihood and the derivatives you’ve worked so hard to make. It doesn’t matter which commodity you want to invest in on the trader platform, your information should always be kept safe and secure on the site and your broker should always let you know exactly what’s happening with your capital.
It’s also important to have access to live trader and commodity news on the platform so you can make informed decisions about everything you choose to do as your own broker. The best commodity platform will have plenty of up-to-date information for you to study or glance at to know what’s happening and what’s coming in the market. Once you find a trader platform with all that, you’ll have everything you need to be the best broker you can be.
September 23, 2024 by GalTrades.com
Powel said at the Jackson hole meeting, “The time has come for policy to adjust,” The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”
It didn’t matter if we got a .25 or .50 basis point rate cut, earnings growth will determine if the market can keep going up.
The market made new all-time highs, but only one MAG7 stock made new all-time high, META. That means the rally is broadening, a positive point for the market.
The S&P is currently trading at a forward P/E of 21 which suggests that a lot has been priced regarding the bull thesis. Valuations are high and that should be noted. How much higher can the market go up? remains to be seen.
“don’t fight the Fed” or “don’t fight the trend” are statements to sustain near-term bullish momentum. Aside from the FED cutting rates, the economy still appears to be on firm footing.
Next week the earnings and economic calendar is relatively light, outside of next Friday’s PCE report, but perhaps this can be conducive for recent bullish momentum. In the absence of news, the path of least resistance is higher. Yes, we are still in the midst of bearish seasonality, but the technicals look encouraging.
Going forward bad news is good news because the FED will need to lower rates on bad news, unless the news is disastrous.
As long as the SPX can remain above July’s prior all-time closing high 5,667, we should see continuation. An SPX close below 5,667 could introduce concerns of a false breakout to all-time highs, which would likely introduce some additional selling pressure
A positive point: 76% of the S&P 500 stocks are above there 50 Day Moving Averages and 76% are above their 200 Day MA.
Year to date the two top performing factors were momentum and growth which were up 29/27 % respectively. The two worst preforming groups were yield and value stocks. In the last 3 month that flipped. Dividend and value stocks get an uptick when rates come down.
I see analysts calling for the small caps to go up with rate cuts. The action on Wednesday didn’t show that. It may be wise to react as opposed to jumping in now. It would make more sense for mid-caps to go up prior to small caps as there are more profitable companies in mid-cap sectors.
Statistics show post-election the markets usually end higher. And in the past when the FED has cut rates in a soft landing, or no landing markets ended up higher for the next 6 to 12 months almost 100% of the time.
Cyclical, mortgage, auto loan rates and small cap stand to benefit from rate cuts.
Rate cuts can ignite small caps and value stocks. The IJR index contains a higher % of companies which are profitable as opposed to the IWM Russell 2000.
Bull market indicators usually benefit capital market plays, stocks such as; CBOE, IBKR, BLK, GS. Rate cuts should help the homebuilders XHB ETF.
If Fed rate cuts can bring short-end bond yields down to more normal rates, then banks wouldn’t have to overcompensate at the long end and longer-term loans like mortgages could come down. That would put more money in the pockets of everyday Americans and help fuel all sectors of the stock market — not to mention the benefit lower rates have on valuations.
Commodities and oil prices are down, rates are coming down. That’s all good for companies and the consumer.
Energy companies as opposed to the price of oil. historically this sector has been one of the best sectors going into a rate cut. What we didn’t have in the past is a slowdown in China, that narrative should put a lid on appreciation. There may be some individual names that are exceptions.
FINISH ARTICLE HERE
Daily Levels for September 23, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by:ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Important Notices – Heavy Fed Speaking, Active Data, Few Earnings
Futures 101 – Tick Size & Minimum Fluctuations
Hot Market of the Week – March Sugar
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Copper Swing Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:
The Week Ahead
Heavy Fed Speak Week, active data and a few earnings highlight the week ahead.
Light Earnings, by largest Market Cap
Wed, Micron Technologies After the close
Thursday, Accenture pre-open, Costco after the close
Fed Speak schedule
Mon. Goolsbee 9:15am CDT, Kashkari Noon CDT
Tues. Bowman 8:00am CDT
Wed. Kugler 3:00pm CDT
Thu. Collins 8:10amCDT, Powell 8:20am CDT, Williams 8:25 CDT, Treasury Sec. Yellen 10:15am CDT
Big Economic Data week:
Mon. S&P PMI Flash
Tues. Case-Shiller Home prices, CB Consumer Confidence, Redbook, Richmond Fed.
Wed. Building Permits, New Home Sales
Thur. Jobless Claims, Core PCE Final, GDP Final, Durable goods, Pending Home sales
Fri. Personal Income, Retail and Wholesale Inventories, Michigan consumer sentiment
How to Rollover on the E-Futures Platform video below
Futures 101: Tick Movements: Understanding How They Work
Minimum Price Fluctuation
All futures contracts have a minimum price fluctuation also known as a tick. Tick sizes are set by the exchange and vary by contract instrument.
E-min S&P 500 tick
For example, the tick size of an E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract is equal to one quarter of an index point. Since an index point is valued at $50 for the E-Mini S&P 500, a movement of one tick would be
.25 x $50 = $12.50
NYMEX WTI Crude Oil
The tick size of the NYMEX WTI Crude Oil contract is equal to 1 cent and the WTI contract size is 1,000 barrels. Therefore, the value of a one tick move is $10.
Summary
Tick sizes are defined by the exchange and vary depending on the size of the financial instrument and requirements of the marketplace. Tick sizes are set to provide optimal liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads.
The minimum price fluctuation for any CME Group contract can be found on the product specification pages.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
March sugar has shifted its formation back to the topisde and activated upside PriceCount objectives in the process. The chart accelerated to its first upside count to the 21.85 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction form theis level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trdae. IF you can sustain further strength, the second count projects a possible run to the 23.26 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Volume is reported for all futures contracts. It is calculated by counting the number of contracts that have been bought and sold over a given time. You can track volume using different time intervals like daily or intraday.
When a futures contract is traded, whether bought or sold, it counts towards volume for that contract.
For example, a trader closes a short position in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures contract by buying one contract in the ES, so volume will increase by 1.
Traders often use and interpret the rise or decline of volume in a futures contract to help make trading decisions.
Volume can give important information to traders such as:
Indicate the price levels at which traders are more or less interested in trading a futures contract
During the roll, indicate to traders when to switch to trading the front month futures contract as volume decreases in the expiring contract
Identify the times of day when a futures contract is most liquid
Price Levels
When volume changes as price of a futures contract moves towards certain levels, this can indicate to a trader that a change in direction may occur. Some traders may use this information to indicate whether to buy or sell at those key levels.
Contract Roll
During the futures rollover, traders pay attention to the contract that is taking the higher levels of volume. Traders use this information to determine when to start trading the next month contract. As volume decreases in the expiring contract, trading will shift to the next available month contract.
For example, say the June ES (E-mini S&P 500) futures contract is about to expire and September will become the new front month. On the Thursday of rollover week, watch how the June contract starts to lose volume and the September contract begins to pick up volume. When the September contract has more volume than the June contract, it is time to switch to the September contract.
Active Periods
Traders typically prefer higher volume times to trade, as it means that more traders are actively interested in buying and selling. When volume is high, the bid-ask spread is typically smaller, orders are filled faster and less gaps may exist between ticks.
For example, markets can have lower volume between the hours of 12:00 p.m.-2:00 p.m. ET, before major economic releases; conversely, market often see higher volume around the open and close of the trading day.
Traders also can look at average daily volume over a longer time period, such as a few weeks or months, to see if the markets currently are in a lower or higher volume than is typical.
Summary
What volume can’t show however, is whether traders are buying or selling, or opening or closing a position.
For example, if the ES contract is trading at 2375 and suddenly pushes down to 2360 while volume increases, the volume that comes into the market could be from traders opening new long positions at key levels of support. That could indicate a bullish sentiment. Volume also can be generated by liquidation of exiting long positions or opening of new short positions, a possible bearish indication.
A spike in volume at 2360 doesn’t necessarily mean that buyers are coming into the market and that the price will bounce.
Volume data is readily available for each futures contract and for the market as a whole. Although traders may use volume in different ways to interpret how to trade, volume can be an important factor to help inform your trading decisions.
Hot Market of the Week – June Bonds
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The June 30 Year T-Bond break found temporary stability at its second downside PriceCount objective recently. Now, the chart has resumed its slide into new lows which, if sustained, would project a run to the third count in the 109^20 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The U.S. GDP experienced a modest increase of 1.6% in the first quarter, marking the slowest expansion in two years. This news prompted a downturn in U.S. stock markets. But should investors be concerned about this figure?
Ben Laidler, the Global Markets Strategist at eToro, appeared on Wealth! to shed light on the implications of the GDP data for investor portfolios.
Laidler commented, “The recent GDP figure isn’t ideal, yet it’s not as dire as it may seem. The core elements that matter to us—business investment and consumer spending—are holding strong. The observed softness is largely attributed to less critical factors, which are expected to rebound in the next quarter, specifically trade and inventory levels.
While the inflation metric is slightly unsettling, it’s best to wait for the upcoming release of the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This will provide us with more clarity on the extent of our concerns regarding the current economic situation.”
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
If you are trading stock index futures, note price action has been VERY choppy during the day session as most earnings come out after the close…
Coffee and Coca volatility is as high as I have seen in recent months. Large intraday and overnight moves in both, as much as +/- 8% per day!
We have GDP and home sales tomorrow.
Big pullback in both silver and gold and the key question is: Was this profit taking/ deflation of geo political fear and GOOD entry to the long side? OR…is this the near term top for both markets??
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Futures traders with positions in deliverable futures contracts keep an eye on the calendar for important dates at the end of the month. First Notice Day (FND) and Last Trading Day (LTD) for many futures contracts are close at hand. Make sure you steer safely clear of receiving delivery notices for physical commodities (FND), or greatly reduced liquidity (LTD). If you’re unsure, contact your Cannon Trading Co. broker.
The economic calendar for the rest of the week is scarce with Thursday’s Q1 GDP report taking center stage.
Prospects for a fed rate cut announcement at the Fed’s 4/30-5/1 meeting, as well as its mid-June meeting have all but evaporated and many Fed watchers expect the central bank to keep its “higher for longer” mantra in place for most and possibly all of 2024.
Worries over a wider Middle East conflict have subsided and traders are discounting the risk of further escalations. Case in point, June gold lost ±67 per ounce (±2%) yesterday after posting its latest all-time record high close of $2,413.80/ounce on Friday. Iran downplayed Israel’s retaliatory drone strike against it, in what appeared to be a move aimed at averting regional escalation.
Energies:
The ±$2.50/barrel selloff in May crude oil and the ±¢9.75/gallon May RBOB gasoline futures last week likely signaled the markets do not see an Iranian supply disruption in the near future, so the markets will be given to focusing on global energy demand going forward
Softs:
May Cocoa futures declined sharply yesterday and today, down nearly $1,300/ton (a $13,000 per contract move) marking its worst two-day slump since February. This after a 3-day / Wed.-Fri. rally of $1,635/ton to its all-time record high close of 11,878/ton on Friday. ICE U.S. has set the initial margin requirement to $11,260 per contract.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
US new home sales data for June will be updated Wednesday morning at 9:00 am CT. Analysts expect new home sales month-to-month at a 0.640 mln unit annualized pace, up +3.4%. The prior month’s sales were -11.3% at 0.619 mln unit annual rate. Micron Technology reports after the close 
