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Category: Commodity Trading

Investment is a game of money of securing future money by taking a risk today. Trading therefore comes with a list of rules to play by. Commodity trading in particular offers tremendous potential for becoming a completely different asset class.

However, before investing in any kind of commodity, you must do an in depth research and also ask your broker as many questions as possible. Through this category archive we provide you as much information and valuable insights into the world of commodity trading.

We at Cannon Trading are here to help you with your commodity trading needs. You as a trader should select your commodity trading advisor only after performing a due diligence on him/her. We in fact do that for you. This way, you get only the best advice to help you with your commodity trading.

We’ve got the information that you might need at every step of commodity trading, and you’ll find it all right here in the commodity trading section of our blog. Read up, and read on to get equipped!

SPX Index Futures

Posted on by Ilan

The SPX index futures contract, which is based on the S&P 500 Index, was conceived as a mechanism to provide traders, institutional investors, and portfolio managers with a liquid and efficient way to hedge their exposure to the U.S. stock market or speculate on its direction. Before its introduction, market participants faced limited tools for effectively managing broad market risk. The SPX index futures contract bridged this gap by tying the performance of futures to the S&P 500 Index, a benchmark that represents the stock performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States.

The origins of the SPX index futures contract trace back to the late 20th century, a period marked by increasing financial innovation. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), now part of CME Group, played a central role in this endeavor. As early as the 1970s, the concept of index-based derivatives was gaining traction, but it wasn’t until April 21, 1982, that SPX index futures officially launched. The groundwork for these contracts was laid through the collaborative efforts of financial pioneers, economists, and institutional market participants.

One notable figure behind the success of SPX index futures was Leo Melamed, a visionary who served as chairman of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Melamed is often referred to as the “father of financial futures” for his role in introducing new derivatives markets, including SPX index futures. His efforts were complemented by economists like Richard Sandor, who contributed to the theoretical framework underpinning financial futures markets.

How SPX Index Futures Work

SPX index futures are contracts that allow traders to speculate on or hedge against the future value of the S&P 500 Index. Each contract represents a specified notional value, typically calculated by multiplying the index’s level by a fixed multiplier (e.g., $50). These contracts are cash-settled, meaning that no physical delivery of assets occurs; instead, the difference between the contract’s purchase price and its settlement price is exchanged in cash.

One of the key advantages of trading SPX index futures is their efficiency. Traders can gain exposure to the entire S&P 500 Index through a single contract, rather than trading individual stocks. This efficiency makes SPX index futures an attractive instrument for a wide range of participants, from retail investors to institutional asset managers.

Trends in SPX Index Futures

SPX index futures tend to follow trends tied closely to macroeconomic conditions, corporate earnings reports, and market sentiment. Historically, several patterns have emerged:

  • Bull Markets and Bear Markets: During bull markets, SPX index futures tend to rally as investors are optimistic about economic growth and corporate earnings. Conversely, in bear markets, these futures contracts often decline, reflecting pessimism about the market’s prospects.
  • Volatility During Economic Uncertainty: SPX index futures experience heightened volatility during periods of economic uncertainty, such as recessions, geopolitical events, or financial crises. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, SPX index futures saw significant price swings as investors reacted to the rapidly changing economic landscape.
  • Seasonal Trends: Certain times of the year, such as the fourth quarter, tend to see stronger performance in SPX index futures due to factors like holiday spending and year-end portfolio adjustments. Conversely, the first quarter of the year often reflects market recalibrations as new economic data is released.

Case Study: The COVID-19 Market Crash

During the COVID-19 pandemic, SPX index futures became a focal point for market participants seeking to hedge their portfolios or capitalize on volatility. In March 2020, SPX index futures dropped dramatically as fears of a global recession gripped markets. Futures traders who anticipated the downturn and took short positions saw substantial gains. For instance, a futures trading broker reported that a trader who shorted SPX index futures at 3,200 and covered their position at 2,200 earned a profit of $50,000 per contract.

Risk Level: High. Such trades require precise timing and a strong understanding of market dynamics. The volatility of SPX index futures during crises can result in rapid losses if the market moves against a position. Futures traders should use stop-loss orders and maintain adequate margin to mitigate risks.

SPX Index Futures in Q1 2025: What to Expect

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2025, SPX index futures are likely to be influenced by several key factors:

  • Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s actions regarding interest rates will play a significant role. If the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, SPX index futures could face downward pressure. Conversely, a pause or reversal in rate hikes could provide a bullish catalyst.
  • Corporate Earnings: Earnings reports from S&P 500 companies will set the tone for SPX index futures. Strong earnings could boost futures prices, while disappointing results could lead to declines.
  • Geopolitical Events: Developments such as trade agreements, political tensions, or global conflicts could create volatility in SPX index futures markets. Futures brokers are already advising their clients to monitor these events closely.
  • Sector Rotation: As investors adjust their portfolios for the new year, sector rotation could impact SPX index futures. For example, a shift toward defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities might dampen overall index performance.

Case Study: A Futures Trader’s Experience in Sector Rotation

In Q1 2023, a futures trader identified a rotation from high-growth technology stocks to value-oriented sectors like energy and financials. By analyzing sector weightings in the S&P 500 Index, the trader predicted that SPX index futures would experience moderate gains due to the resilience of value stocks. The trader entered a long position at 3,800 and exited at 4,200, earning a profit of $20,000 per contract.

Risk Level: Moderate. While sector rotation provides opportunities, predicting its timing and impact on SPX index futures requires extensive research. Futures contract trading during sector rotation should involve diversification and risk management strategies.

Real-Life Anecdotes: Lessons from SPX Index Futures Trading

  • The Power of Leverage: A retail investor in 2019 used SPX index futures to amplify their returns. By leveraging a $10,000 margin to control a $250,000 notional position, the investor doubled their initial investment within weeks as the S&P 500 rallied. However, a similar trade in 2020 resulted in a complete loss of their margin due to a sudden market downturn.

Risk Level: Very High. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Futures traders must exercise caution and ensure they have sufficient margin to withstand adverse price movements.

  • Hedging Against Portfolio Losses: During the 2008 financial crisis, an institutional portfolio manager used SPX index futures to hedge against declining equity values. By shorting futures contracts, the manager offset losses in their long equity positions, preserving capital during a market downturn.

Risk Level: Low to Moderate. Hedging with SPX index futures can effectively reduce risk, but improper execution or misalignment with portfolio holdings can lead to suboptimal results.

Cautionary Notes for SPX Index Futures Traders

  • Margin Requirements: Trading futures contracts requires maintaining a margin, which can result in margin calls if the market moves against your position. Traders should always monitor their margin levels and maintain sufficient reserves.
  • Market Volatility: SPX index futures are sensitive to news events, economic data releases, and market sentiment shifts. Sudden price swings can result in significant losses.
  • Complexity of Futures Trading: Futures trading involves complexities such as rollover costs, contract expiration, and varying settlement prices. Novice traders should consider working with experienced futures brokers to navigate these challenges.
  • Psychological Pressure: The leverage and rapid price movements in SPX index futures can create psychological stress for traders. Maintaining discipline and adhering to a well-defined trading plan is essential.

SPX index futures have transformed the way investors and traders interact with the broader stock market. From their inception in 1982 to their current role as a cornerstone of futures trading, these contracts offer unparalleled opportunities for hedging, speculation, and portfolio management. However, the potential for substantial rewards comes with significant risks, making it crucial for futures traders to approach SPX index futures with caution, discipline, and a thorough understanding of market dynamics.

As we move into the first quarter of 2025, SPX index futures are poised to reflect the economic and geopolitical landscape of the time. Whether you’re a seasoned futures trading broker or a novice exploring trading futures, staying informed and vigilant will be the key to success.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Stock Futures suffer Eye-Opening Tumble as CPI Exceeds Expectations

Posted on by Jenny Collins

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Trading in Front of Reports – Like Today’s CPI – Stock Futures – a Word to the Wise

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its scheduled Consumer Price Index and to the market’s surprise, it jumped more than anticipated, showing a higher-than-expected 0.5 percent increase from December. It was the fastest monthly increase since August 2023.

Stock Futures

The reaction by the major stock futures contracts was immediate and pronounced. Within a single minute of the report’s release, the E-mini Dow Jones stock futures contract dropped over 400 points, the E-mini S&P 500 stock futures contract dropped 60 points, a $3,000 move and within that same minute the E-mini Nasdaq stock futures contract dropped 311 points, a $6220 move.

CPI

CPI is one of several regularly scheduled reports that can have an impact on the futures markets. There are many such reports on things like crude oil stocks, crop conditions, interest rate decisions and several that look at aspects of the economy.

 
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They all can impact related futures markets’ movement, even if for a span of time as short as a minute.

So, it’s important for traders to take care when trading into an approaching report, as well as afterwards if volatility continues. Even if you’re incorporating STOP orders to offset a position going into a report’s release, fast markets can “jump” over your STOP price and leave your trade exposed to further risk.
1 minute chart from this morning for illustration purposes below!

 

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Daily Levels for February 13th, 2025

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Coffee, Cattle, and Crops: Market Swings Amid Powell & CPI Anticipation

Posted on by Jenny Collins

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Coffee

Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Movers and Shakers: Tomorrow (CPI) before the open, CSCO After the close

 

Fed Powell’s testimony in the Senate had the market moving today.

Gold started to sell off well before the testimony began, down $25.00 then as Powell spoke @ 10 EST, the market rallied from that point in somewhat of a slough to unchanged, but struggled to breakout and looks to close a shade off yesterday, down 8 bucks. Holding rates for quite some time longer didn’t add fuel to the current rally. Powell testifies tomorrow in the House, same time.

 

The S&P 500 rallied from Powell’s opening remarks 20 points, then fell back at the 2-hour mark to where it began:6070.00 only to rally NEARLY 30 POINTS FROM THERE AFTER THE CONCLUSION. However, they look to close unchanged at the time of this writing. 6088.00.  This was a very tradeable day.

 

After scanning several markets Energies, Bonds, Dollar index. They all finished the day right about where they were prior to Powell’s opening remarks except for the US Dollar, which closed lower as Gold retained some of its luster.

 
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Corn

WASDE was released this morning as well, whose results weighed on domestic Ag row crop prices, Beans down 6 cents, Corn down 7.5-6.25 for old crop, new crop Dec down a penny (will grains in the future be quoted in pennies with the dissolution of the one cent coin?) Wheat down between 2.5 to 7 cents across the board and protein spectrum. Cotton bucked the trend and had a strong rally after the numbers, up .74 basis the May contract.

 

Coffee

As for the softs, Coffee lost some caffeine today, down from its all-time highs, 15 + cents per pound @ 413.45. This drop comes after a strong rally in recent sessions, fueled by supply concerns and robust demand. However, profit-taking and shifting sentiment in the broader commodities market may have contributed to today’s pullback. Traders will be watching for any signs of renewed momentum or further correction in the days ahead, particularly with currency fluctuations and weather patterns in key coffee-growing regions influencing price action. That’s Coffee!

 

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Choose your opportunities wisely.

 

Tomorrow: CPI (Consumer Price Index) before the open, Fed Powell Testimony in the House of Representatives 9 am CST, Fed Bostic 11:00 am CST. Earnings: Cisco After the close, CME Group, before the open
March Feeder Cattle

The January 21st QT Chart of the Day alerted readers that the March feeder cattle chart was approaching its third upside PriceCount objective. After reaching this target area, the chart corrected lower and activated downside PriceCounts in the process. At this point, if you can extend its break with new sustained lows, the second count would project a slide to the 261.59 area.

 

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Daily Levels for February 12th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures

Posted on by Ilan

The Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures (commonly referred to as DJ Index Futures) play a pivotal role in the global financial markets, offering investors and traders a tool to hedge risks, speculate on future price movements, and diversify portfolios. This financial instrument has a rich history that intertwines innovation, strategic foresight, and the evolving needs of futures traders. This article explores the origins of the Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures contract, highlights the key figures behind its inception, examines trends in currency futures, and anticipates possible movements in DJ Index Futures during the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, real-life anecdotes and case studies underscore the practical applications and risks of trading futures.

The Conception of the Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures Contract

The Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures were first introduced on October 6, 1997, by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). At the time, the growing popularity of stock index futures—first pioneered with the S&P 500 Index Futures in 1982—revealed a demand for a futures contract tied specifically to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), a blue-chip index widely regarded as a bellwether for the U.S. economy. The goal was to offer a product that would enable investors to manage exposure to the Dow’s 30 component companies, which represent leading industries in the U.S.

Key figures instrumental in bringing the Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures to market included the leadership of the CBOT, such as Thomas Donovan, then-president and CEO of the exchange. Donovan’s vision for expanding the CBOT’s product offerings underscored the necessity of keeping pace with the evolving preferences of futures traders. Another notable contributor was Leo Melamed, often called the “father of financial futures,” whose groundbreaking work in the 1970s and 1980s set the stage for the development of stock index futures. The combined efforts of exchange leaders, regulators, and financial engineers ensured the successful launch of DJ Index Futures, despite initial skepticism.

The appeal of trading futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lay in their simplicity and widespread recognition. Institutional investors, retail traders, and portfolio managers quickly adopted these futures as tools for hedging and speculation. Futures trading brokers facilitated access to these contracts, bridging the gap between individual traders and global markets.

Trends in Currency Futures and Their Implications

Currency futures—contracts that lock in the exchange rate of one currency for another at a future date—exhibit trends influenced by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events, and central bank policies. A comparison of currency futures and DJ Index Futures reveals overlapping dynamics, as both instruments are deeply affected by investor sentiment and market volatility.

  • Macroeconomic Indicators: Currency futures often follow trends shaped by economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment data. For instance, a strong U.S. jobs report might bolster the U.S. dollar’s value, impacting currency futures tied to the dollar. Similarly, strong corporate earnings from Dow components can drive DJ Index Futures higher, reflecting optimism in the broader economy.
  • Central Bank Policies: Interest rate decisions and monetary policy guidance significantly influence currency futures. For example, in 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes strengthened the dollar, causing ripple effects across currency futures markets. DJ Index Futures, while less directly tied to monetary policy, often experience volatility during Fed announcements due to their impact on equity valuations.
  • Geopolitical Events: Trade wars, political instability, and global crises frequently lead to heightened volatility in currency and stock index futures. For example, during the 2016 Brexit vote, the British pound plummeted, driving up demand for currency futures hedging against further declines. Simultaneously, DJ Index Futures saw sharp fluctuations as investors assessed the potential economic fallout.

Risk Level and Caution: Trading futures based on macroeconomic trends involves considerable risk. Unexpected data releases or geopolitical developments can result in significant losses. Futures trading brokers often recommend employing stop-loss orders and limiting exposure to avoid catastrophic outcomes.

Forecasting Trends in Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures for Q1 2025

The first quarter of 2025 presents a challenging yet potentially rewarding environment for futures traders. Anticipating trends in DJ Index Futures requires an understanding of current economic conditions, earnings reports, and market sentiment.

  • Economic Outlook: Entering 2025, the U.S. economy is expected to navigate a mixed landscape. Inflation may remain a concern, prompting cautious optimism among investors. A Federal Reserve pivot to more dovish policies could spur renewed interest in equities, driving DJ Index Futures higher. However, if inflation persists or economic data disappoints, bearish trends could dominate.
  • Sector-Specific Drivers: The Dow’s composition includes companies from diverse sectors such as technology, healthcare, and industrials. Emerging trends in artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy could propel technology-heavy components like Microsoft and Intel, creating upward momentum for DJ Index Futures. Conversely, challenges in the industrial sector due to supply chain disruptions could weigh on performance.
  • Case Study: A Futures Trader’s Perspective: In January 2025, a futures trader named Mark anticipates strong Q1 earnings from several Dow components, particularly in the technology and financial sectors. Using a futures trading broker, Mark initiates a long position in DJ Index Futures at 35,000. As earnings season progresses, positive results drive the index to 36,000, yielding a 1,000-point gain on his position. However, Mark’s decision to employ leverage amplifies his profits but also increases his risk exposure. A sudden downturn in the market could have wiped out his gains and resulted in substantial losses.

Risk Level and Caution: The use of leverage in futures trading magnifies both potential profits and losses. Traders should carefully calculate position sizes and utilize risk management tools such as margin requirements and protective stops.

Real-Life Anecdotes and Practical Lessons

The history of DJ Index Futures is replete with examples of dramatic successes and failures, underscoring the importance of strategy and discipline.

  • The 2008 Financial Crisis: During the 2008 crisis, DJ Index Futures experienced unprecedented volatility. Futures traders who correctly anticipated the market’s downturn—such as those shorting the index in September—reaped substantial rewards. However, others who remained overly optimistic suffered heavy losses. This period highlighted the value of hedging and the necessity of diversifying portfolios.
  • Post-Pandemic Recovery (2020-2021): Following the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial market shock, DJ Index Futures rebounded sharply as stimulus measures and vaccine rollouts restored confidence. Futures traders who adopted a long-term bullish stance profited significantly, though those who over-leveraged during short-term corrections faced margin calls.

Risk Level and Caution: Historical case studies reveal the importance of patience and resilience. Futures traders must avoid emotional decision-making and adhere to pre-defined trading plans.

Key Considerations for Futures Traders

To navigate the complexities of DJ Index Futures, traders should keep the following in mind:

  • Education and Expertise: Successful futures trading requires a solid understanding of market fundamentals, technical analysis, and economic trends. Consulting with a knowledgeable futures trading broker can provide valuable insights.
  • Risk Management: Effective risk management is paramount. This includes setting realistic profit targets, using stop-loss orders, and avoiding over-leveraging. Futures traders must also account for liquidity risks and ensure sufficient capital reserves.
  • Leveraging Technology: Advanced trading platforms and analytics tools offered by futures brokers can enhance decision-making. Automated strategies and algorithmic trading have gained popularity among professional traders seeking precision and efficiency.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures represent a cornerstone of modern financial markets, offering unparalleled opportunities for hedging, speculation, and portfolio diversification. From their inception in 1997 to the present day, these futures contracts have evolved alongside market dynamics, driven by the vision of pioneers and the needs of traders.

Understanding the trends in currency futures and DJ Index Futures underscores the interconnectedness of global markets. The first quarter of 2025 is poised to bring both challenges and opportunities, with economic data, sector-specific developments, and geopolitical factors shaping outcomes.

Ultimately, trading futures requires discipline, education, and prudent risk management. While the potential rewards are significant, the risks are equally substantial. By leveraging the expertise of futures trading brokers and adhering to sound strategies, traders can navigate the complexities of this dynamic market.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Market Movers This Week: Options on Futures, Grains, Hedging, Powell Testimony, CPI & PPI, WASDE, and Earnings Reports

Posted on by Jenny Collins

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1229

  • 1099’s Are Available
  • The Week Ahead –
  • Futures 102 – Hedging With grains, Options on Futures
  • Hot Market of the Week – April Hogs
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – ES intraday System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

1099’s:

1099 forms will be generated for all futures trading accounts held by US clients that placed any trades during the 2024 calendar year. Traders should expect to receive their 1099 forms via mail, email or through their portal in early February.

 

·    1099 forms will be provided directly from the FCM to the client.

·    To login and retrieve your 1099 for your Cannon account via StoneX click here

·    To login and retrieve your 1099 for your Cannon account via Ironbeam click here

·    To login and retrieve your 1099 for your Cannon account via Dorman click here

For any other FCM’s please contact your broker directly.

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

 

Humphrey Hawkins Testimony week, Fed Chair Powell gives testimony to the Senate Banking Committee beginning @ 9:00 am CST Tuesday the 11th, Wednesday he walks over to the House Financial Committee and answers questions for the congressional body. CPI,PPI! WASDE week! + 5Fed Speakers, 1000’s of midcaps reporting past earnings and future guidance.

Economic releases are relatively light this week with one exception: Consumer Price Index (CPI) pre-market Friday. The Fed Speakers will be at the podium for the foreseeable future as we don’t have another Fed rate decision until late March.

 

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. McDonalds
  • Tue. Coca-Cola, Softbank
  • Wed. Cisco
  • Thu.  Applied materials
  • Fri. Quiet

 

 

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon Quiet
  • Tues. Hammock 7:50 CST, Chair Powell Testimony 9amCST, Bowman and Williams 2:30pmCST
  • Wed. Chair Powell Testimony 9am CST, Bostic 11:00 am CST, Waller 4:05PM,
  • Thu. Quiet
  • Fri. Quiet

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. Consumer inflation expectations
  • Tue. WASDE Ag Numbers 9amCST, NIFB Optimism index
  • Wed. CPI
  • Thur. Initial Jobless Claims, PPI
  • Fri. Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories

Futures 102: Hedging Grains with Options on Futures

Course Overview

Gain an understanding of how buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds utilize futures and options to hedge their position to manage price risk.  This course will enhance the hedger’s understanding of the different strategies available as well as how the basis affects prices.

Start Now

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading and options on futures needs.

Free Trial Available

December 25 Corn

April Hogs satisfied a second upside PriceCount  objective before turning sideways with a range bound trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a potential run to the 100.96 area.

PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

ES NZL

PRODUCT

Mini SP500

 

SYSTEM TYPE

Day Trading

 

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$36,000

 

COST

USD 199 / monthly

 

Get Started

 

Learn More

 

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for February 10, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Call Now

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, Amazon

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Crude Oil Future Contracts

Posted on by Ilan

Crude oil future contracts represent one of the most actively traded commodities in the financial world. For seasoned futures traders, navigating the complexities of crude oil futures trading requires a deep understanding of market dynamics, risk management, and strategic execution. This article will explore the history of crude oil future contracts, provide 10 tips for advanced traders, and highlight the risks involved in trading futures contracts. Real-life anecdotes and case studies are included to enhance the insights presented.

Brief History of Crude Oil Future Contracts

Crude oil has long been a cornerstone of the global economy. Futures contract trading for crude oil began in 1983 when the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) introduced the first crude oil futures contract. This innovation provided a mechanism for producers, refiners, and other market participants to hedge price risks while also offering speculative opportunities for futures traders.

The development of crude oil futures contracts coincided with significant global events, including the oil crises of the 1970s, which underscored the need for more efficient price discovery mechanisms. Over the years, these contracts have evolved to include variants such as e-mini futures, enabling smaller-scale traders to participate in the market. Today, crude oil future contracts are traded on multiple platforms, including ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) and CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), solidifying their role as a crucial financial instrument.

10 Tips and Pointers for Advanced Traders Trading E-Mini Futures

  1. Understand the Fundamental Drivers of Oil Prices

    Crude oil prices are influenced by a range of factors, including geopolitical events, OPEC production decisions, and economic data. Advanced futures traders must stay informed about these drivers and their potential impacts.

    Real-Life Example: In 2020, crude oil prices plunged into negative territory due to a combination of oversupply and reduced demand from the COVID-19 pandemic. Traders who anticipated this downturn and shorted futures contracts reaped significant profits.

    Risk Level: High. The market’s sensitivity to global events can lead to extreme volatility. Traders must prepare for rapid price swings and maintain a robust risk management plan.

    Additionally, the shale revolution in the United States, starting in the mid-2000s, drastically increased oil supply, affecting crude oil prices. Advanced futures traders who understood the impact of this trend often incorporated long-term bearish strategies, profiting from lower price floors.

  2. Leverage Technical Analysis

    Technical analysis remains an essential tool for futures traders. Understanding chart patterns, support and resistance levels, and moving averages can help identify entry and exit points.

    Case Study: An experienced futures trader used a Fibonacci retracement tool to predict a bounce in WTI crude oil prices in 2022, capitalizing on a short-term rally. Similarly, a detailed analysis of Bollinger Bands allowed traders to identify overbought or oversold conditions, improving their timing.

    Risk Level: Moderate. While technical analysis is valuable, it should not be used in isolation. Combining it with fundamental analysis can mitigate risks.

  3. Utilize Advanced Order Types

    Stop-loss and limit orders are crucial for minimizing losses and locking in profits. Advanced traders should also consider trailing stops to protect gains as the market moves in their favor.

    Real-Life Anecdote: A futures trader once avoided significant losses during a sharp price drop by setting a trailing stop order, which automatically exited their position at a predetermined level. Another trader used OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders to simultaneously manage profit targets and stop-loss levels, ensuring balanced risk-reward ratios.

    Risk Level: Low to Moderate. Proper use of advanced order types can significantly reduce trading risk.

  4. Trade During Optimal Market Hours

    Liquidity and volatility vary throughout the trading day. The overlap between London and New York trading sessions often provides the best opportunities for crude oil futures trading.

    Pro Tip: Monitor the market around key economic announcements, such as U.S. crude inventory reports, which can cause significant price movements. Another overlooked opportunity lies in trading futures during Asian hours, particularly when geopolitical events arise in the Middle East.

    Risk Level: Moderate. Trading during high-volatility periods increases both profit potential and risk exposure.

  5. Master Position Sizing

    Proper position sizing is critical in futures trading. Allocating too much capital to a single trade can amplify losses.

    Case Study: A seasoned trader maintained consistent position sizes across multiple trades, enabling them to weather losses during a prolonged downtrend. Using tools provided by futures trading brokers, the trader also calculated risk as a percentage of total portfolio capital, limiting losses to 1-2% per trade.

    Risk Level: Low to Moderate. Adequate position sizing minimizes the impact of individual losses on overall portfolio performance.

  6. Monitor Open Interest and Volume

    Open interest and trading volume provide insights into market sentiment and liquidity. High volume often indicates strong trends, while declining open interest can signal trend exhaustion.

    Pro Tip: Use these metrics to confirm the validity of breakouts and reversals. Pairing volume indicators with price action improves overall trading accuracy, especially during false breakouts.

    Risk Level: Low. These indicators enhance decision-making but do not eliminate market risks.

  7. Diversify Trading Strategies

    Relying on a single strategy can be detrimental. Advanced traders often employ a mix of trend-following, mean-reversion, and options strategies to adapt to changing market conditions.

    Real-Life Example: A trader alternated between a breakout strategy during trending markets and a mean-reversion approach in range-bound conditions, achieving consistent profitability. Options spreads, such as bull call spreads, were also employed to hedge against unexpected price movements.

    Risk Level: Moderate. Diversification reduces dependence on a single strategy but requires mastery of multiple techniques.

  8. Stay Updated on Regulatory Changes

    Regulations governing futures contract trading can change, affecting margin requirements and market access. Working with a reputable futures trading broker ensures compliance and access to updated information.

    Real-Life Example: In 2010, regulatory changes post-financial crisis increased margin requirements for crude oil futures, significantly impacting traders who were over-leveraged. Staying informed helped disciplined traders adjust their positions accordingly.

    Risk Level: Low. Staying informed reduces the risk of non-compliance and operational disruptions.

  9. Maintain Emotional Discipline

    Emotional trading can lead to impulsive decisions and significant losses. Advanced traders prioritize discipline and adhere to their trading plans.

    Case Study: A futures trader maintained composure during a major market downturn, sticking to their strategy and recovering losses in subsequent trades. Leveraging meditation and regular breaks helped mitigate decision fatigue.

    Risk Level: High. Emotional trading is a common pitfall, especially during periods of extreme volatility.

  10. Utilize Futures Brokers with Advanced Tools

    A reliable futures trading broker provides advanced platforms, analytical tools, and educational resources. These features can give traders a competitive edge.

    Pro Tip: Compare platforms to ensure they meet your trading needs, focusing on latency, charting tools, and real-time data. Advanced traders often use APIs for automated trading, enhancing execution speed and efficiency.

    Risk Level: Low. Working with a reputable broker reduces operational risks and enhances trading efficiency.

Risk Levels in Crude Oil Futures Trading

Crude oil futures trading involves varying levels of risk, depending on the strategies employed and market conditions. Volatility, leverage, and geopolitical factors contribute to the inherent risks. Traders must adopt robust risk management practices, such as using stop-loss orders, maintaining proper position sizes, and diversifying portfolios.

Additionally, the emergence of algorithmic trading has increased market speed, introducing risks related to slippage and system malfunctions. Advanced traders must backtest algorithms rigorously and maintain redundancy protocols.

Crude oil future contracts offer significant profit potential for experienced traders but come with substantial risks. By leveraging advanced strategies, staying informed about market dynamics, and working with reliable futures trading brokers, traders can enhance their performance while mitigating risks.

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Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572> (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

US January Non-Farm Payroll Report: Key Forecasts and Market Impact

Posted on by Jenny Collins

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NFP Tomorrow – Non Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

Non Farm Payrolls

US January Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released Friday morning at 7:30 am CT. Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls +170,000 compared to the previous month’s +256,000. The January jobless rate is expected at 4.1%, unchanged compared to the previous month. Average hourly earnings are expected up +0.3% month over month.
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With Non-Farm Payroll coming in tomorrow, We suspect a busy, volatile Friday as other reports and speakers will be out. Make sure to check calendar below.

April Hogs satisfied a second upside PriceCount  objective before turning sideways with a range bound trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a potential run to the 100.96 area.

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Daily Levels for February 7th, 2025

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Market Watch: Record Highs in Gold & Coffee, Oil Retreats Amid Trade Concerns

Posted on by Jenny Collins

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New all-time highs in Gold!

Futures Markets Highlights by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

The big one!  It’s that time of the month again: we’re a couple of days from when the Labor Dept. releases its monthly Non-farm payrolls report.  It’s widely considered to be one of the most important and influential measures of the U.S. economy and the report is released at 7:30 A.M., Central Time on the first Friday of the month.

Softs

New all-time highs in coffee!  The relentless coffee price rally continued today as the March futures contract on the ICE exchange hit a new intra-day record above $4.00 per pound on extremely tight supplies and fears over the outlook for the coming crop.  High: $401.10, settle: $397.75

The ICE coffee futures contract is considered the benchmark to price deals around the world and has moved up more than 15% this year.
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Energy:

Crude oil futures were in retreat on broader demand concerns, tit-for-tat import taxes between the U.S. and China and the prospect of an extended trade war with China, Mexico, Canada and more broadly. Prices already were on the defensive after the EIA revealed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories soared by 8.7 million barrels from the previous week.

Closing at $71.03 per barrel today, the March contract is down over $7.00 per barrel ±10% in two weeks

Not “plugged in” to crude oil? There are three different futures contracts to trade West Texas Intermediate crude oil Traded on the CME Group’s NYMEX, the WTI crude futures contract is the largest energy futures contract in the world by volume.

 

Metals:

New all-time highs in gold! April gold futures – the most-active futures contract – hit a new all-time high – breaching $2,900 per ounce intraday as the dollar pushed lower. The ongoing sentiment among traders: concerns over the new U.S. administration’s tariff measures. Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a store of value amid fears of potential economic slowdowns, inflationary pressures, and trade disruptions. April gold settled up 2.7% at $2,893.00 per ounce, marking a 2.7% gain for the day and reinforcing gold’s strong upward momentum in the face of ongoing market volatility.

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Daily Levels for February 6th, 2025

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Market Turbulence and Global Tensions: Key Developments in Politics, Economy, and War

Posted on by Jenny Collins

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Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Market turbulence and volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future as global tensions rise.

Choose your opportunities wisely.

Updated: February 4, 2025 11:19 am

WSJ on Tuesday now reporting President Trump and China’s leader Xi will not speak to each other later today

Updated: February 4, 2025 11:24 am

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that around 20,000 US federal employees accepted buyout offers. The Washington Post today is reporting layoffs of federal employees is likely if too few of them choose to accept buyouts or quit.

 

Updated: February 4, 2025 2:17 pm

Pres. Trump said he would have talks with his Iranian counterpart, but also said Iran is too close to having and cannot have nuclear weapons

 

Updated: February 4, 2025 2:23 pm

Pres Trump he would like to Palestinians taken in by Egypt and Jordan, adding they have no alternative but to leave. He is not in favor of Israeli’s settling in Gaza

Russia – Ukraine War Update

–Reuters reports Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday its air force had struck a Russian military command post in Russia’s Kursk region the previous day causing sustained significant damage and casualties. Reuters could not independently verify the statement.

–Ukraine’s military has reported numerous strikes on Russian military and energy facilities in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces have been battling Russian troops in the Kursk region since Ukraine mounted a cross border operation there last year.

–A pro-Russian Ukrainian paramilitary leader, Armen Sarkisyan, was killed along with one other person, and three more people were wounded in a bomb blast inside a residential building in northwest Moscow, Russian state news agency TASS reports.

–Russia’s Investigative Committee said it opened a criminal inquiry after the explosion on charges of murder by means injurious to the public, attempted murder of two or more people and arms trafficking.

–Ukrainian forces are believed to be behind a series of assassinations in Russia. In mid-December, Russian General Igor Kirillov died in a remote-controlled blast in Moscow.

–The United Nations echoed Ukraine’s growing concerns that Russia killed 79 captured Ukrainian soldiers in 24 separate incidents since September.

–A former United Kingdom MP, Jack Lopresti, has joined the Ukrainian International Legion to help fight against Russia, media reports said. Lopresti reportedly travelled to Kyiv in November to help a charity.

 
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–Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Moscow’s air defense units intercepted and destroyed 70 drones in a Ukrainian offensive overnight. The ministry said Kyiv had also targeted energy facilities, including an oil refinery in Volgograd which had caught fire.

–Ukraine’s military claimed responsibility for strikes on Russian energy facilities, claiming that it hit a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd and a gas processing plant in Astrakhan. Both establishments supplied fuel to the Russian Army, according to the military.

–State Emergency Service workers of Ukraine work at the site of a rocket strike on a residential building in Poltava

Ukrainian rescuers working at the site of a rocket strike on a residential building in Poltava, where at least seven people died and 17 others, including four children, were injured, on February 1, 2025 [Handout/State Emergency Service of Ukraine via EPA-EFE]

–Kyiv’s Air Force said it destroyed 38 of 71 Russian drones launched at Ukraine in an overnight attack. Some 25 drones disappeared from radars without reaching their targets, the Air Force said.

–According to the Reuters news agency, Moscow also said that it was too early for Russia to consider the four-way peace talks model proposed by Zelenskyy, which would include the US, Ukraine, Russia and the EU. Zelenskyy previously said it would be very dangerous if Washington and Moscow held ceasefire talks without involving Kyiv.

–Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, criticized the Finnish government over the publication of an information package for its citizens who are planning or considering volunteering on Ukraine’s side in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

–US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he is seeking a secure supply of rare earth metals from Ukraine in exchange for US aid.

–Moldova’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement denouncing the invasion of its airspace by a drone and said it was discussing with allies how to boost airspace defense. The statement detailed that the drone entered from Ukraine’s airspace, but did not identify the origin or likely operator of the drone.

Tomorrow: Disney before the open, Qualcomm Earnings after the close! ADP, Balance of Trade, Barkin Speech 8am CST, ISM Svcs., Fed Jefferson Speech 6:30 pm CST

 

Daily Levels for February 5th, 2025

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First and Last Commodity Trading Days February 2025

Posted on by Jenny Collins

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First Notice & last trading Days for February

Please see below First Notice and Last Commodity Trading days for February! Make it a disciplined trading month.

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Daily Levels for February 4, 2025

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RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.