Investment is a game of money of securing future money by taking a risk today. Trading therefore comes with a list of rules to play by. Commodity trading in particular offers tremendous potential for becoming a completely different asset class.
However, before investing in any kind of commodity, you must do an in depth research and also ask your broker as many questions as possible. Through this category archive we provide you as much information and valuable insights into the world of commodity trading.
We at Cannon Trading are here to help you with your commodity trading needs. You as a trader should select your commodity trading advisor only after performing a due diligence on him/her. We in fact do that for you. This way, you get only the best advice to help you with your commodity trading.
We’ve got the information that you might need at every step of commodity trading, and you’ll find it all right here in the commodity trading section of our blog. Read up, and read on to get equipped!
Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you listen to podcasts!
Movers and Shakers
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
Oil took another $3 .40 nosedive when OPEC announced a smaller than expected demand growth forecast for 2025 for the Third time!
Updated: October 14, 2024 8:43 am
For the third time OPEC slashed its 2024 and 2025 worldwide crude oil demand growth rate. This year’s demand was lowered to 1.93 mln bpd, down from last month’s projection at 2.03 mln mt. Analysts noted much the downgrade came from lower expected Chinese demand. Next year’s demand growth is seen at 1.64 mln bpd down from 1.74 mln bpd previously forecast.
Flirting with the low end of the 25 month old range, November crude held it’s ground around $69.75/bbl level , a mere 3 dollars from the springtime 2023 lows.
Equity markets were upset by poor United healthcare Group end of year Guidance although they beat EPS estimates, Buy the rumor sell the fact? UNH shares down 48.25 per share or nearly 8%.
Metals cruised higher today with the CME FedWatch tool reflecting a solid 90% chance the FED will lower rates .25-50 in its November meeting is again fueling speculative buying in the Yellow Metal.
The All time high in the December contract is 2708.70 , are we flirting with that number?, yes, as of this writing GCZ24 is @ 2678.00 can we take that out? Stay tuned…
Sympathetic Silver is recouping it’s bullish stance, 1.80 away from it’s contract high @ 31.70 /oz +.37 for the day
Watch Tomorrow’s Movers and Shakers:
No Fed Speakers, No Economic Data, very few ,if any earnings that would make headlines.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
One of the most profitable areas a stock market broker can get into is commodities futures and you can start trading them right now with the right research tools and trading strategy to bet on the future of the market while you’re trading stocks and growing your bank account. Any online brokerage account should have a diversified portfolio with plenty of commodity futures and options trades to go around and pad the investment accounts, whether you’re self-directed or use online brokers. Most online brokers know the importance of investment objectives and can almost always be met with the help of futures and financial advisors are always there to give you an idea of where they’ll be the time your trade goes through.
Active traders have plenty of options when it comes to stock and ETF trades and a stock market broker is going to suggest that every investment portfolio has a few things to hedge your bets and ensure you’re growing your bank account and never losing money with your stock trading. Investment holdings should always include mutual fund trades, stock ETF trades, and commodity futures and every good stock trading platform will have a mobile app that lets you make the most of them. Here’s all the information that active stock traders need to get into commodities and buy stocks that not only cover their account fees but make them money.
Choosing the Right Online Broker
There are interactive brokers and online brokers that will sell stocks and mutual funds for you and take all the work of e-trade away from you so you can sit back and watch your account grow and mature over time and that might be the best option for beginner investors before they start trading. They’ll make all the investment decisions for you and they’ll make a cash bonus when exchange-traded funds get a boost, but you can choose commission-free trades by using a mobile app to do it all by yourself. Active investing takes many research tools and the best online stock brokers will have the educational resources you need to get the most out of trading platforms without using full-service brokers.
Your online brokerage account should come with investment advice and access to mutual funds trading forex trading, and alternative investments that you can look at and decide if you want to get into the same areas that advanced traders are using in their online brokerages. You can start trading right now by setting margin accounts on your online brokerage account and full-service brokers will take over from there, or you can act as your online broker and use trading platforms and brokerage firms for research. There are many financial products to choose from and the decision is yours, but you should ensure you have all the information you need to make the correct one.
What to Consider When Selecting an Online Broker
There are a few things to consider when you want to find the best brokerage accounts to help with your active investing and there are financial products, such as discount brokers, to help you buy stocks with a brokerage account that makes you money and grows your bank account. The best online brokers will have options for active traders as well as access to a full-service broker to take your taxable brokerage account and do all the trading work for you. These online brokers know the stock market and are monitored by the financial industry regulatory authority to keep you and your money safe.
It’s important to consider account minimums on any mobile app you choose to use so you can be sure that your online brokerage platform is something you can comfortably afford until you start to sell stocks and make money through mutual funds and stock and ETF trades. Stock trading platforms are monitored by the Securities and Exchange Commission so your taxable brokerage account is secure and your account minimum is safe. The best online brokerage accounts keep their account fees low so you can buy stocks and make money simply by using a mobile app that supports your active investing decisions.
Types of Online Brokerage Accounts
The best online brokerage platform will have every option available to you, from Morgan self-directed investing to online brokers who trade mutual funds, futures, and commodities for you, based on your long-term goals and the amount of money you’ve given the trading platform to use on your behalf. If you want fully commission-free trading, it’s best to act as your online broker and use the trading platform for information and educational resources that let you make the best decisions for your trades. This is great for advanced traders who know how the market works and want to use the broker’s online trading platform for support rather than a full-service broker.
No matter which type of brokerage account you get, your money will be protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation if the firm goes bankrupt for any reason or the stock trading platform gets shut down. The best online broker will have educational resources on a mobile app that you can access to carry out the investment decisions you’ve made. You’ll also have access to interactive brokers and online brokers to do the e-trade work for you so you don’t have to do it all on your own.
Getting Started with Online Brokers
Interactive brokers are easy to find on the right trading platforms and active traders will take your goals and make e-trade decisions based on what you want from brokerage firms and all you have to do is set up an account on a mobile app. Everything from alternative investments to stock ETF trades and options trades will be available to you as soon as you get set up and you’ll have the best online brokers and interactive brokers working for you on your trading platform. Active traders and discount brokers will have your account minimum to work with and you get to watch your investment accounts grow.
Of course, you don’t have to use interactive brokers on any trading platforms if you want to act as your full-service broker and do the e-trade work on your own. Some of the best online brokers are people who do it on their own with self-directed trading platforms and it can be the best commission-free trading that you can get into. Trading stocks in commodities futures can be very lucrative, as long as you have the educational resources it takes to know what’s happening and which moves you should make.
Online Brokerage Account Features
Stock trading platforms are great for active traders because brokerage firms have done the leg work of gathering information on stock trading so you can make self-directed trades without paying online brokers to do it for you. The best online broker platform will have real-time information you can access whenever you need it before you make an e-trade and bet on the future of the commodities of your choosing. Stock and ETF trades should be easy to access and they’ll have charts that show you where a stock has been so you can make an informed decision on where it will be in the future.
Stock trading platforms will have full-service brokers to utilize, as well as self-directed e-trade options that you can choose based on your needs and how you want to go about your options trades. The right stock trading platforms will allow you to add and draw from your account for your money is never locked away from you and you’ll get the same information that brokerage firms and the best online brokers get to use. Interactive brokers will also be available to help you make e-trade decisions so your stock trading and mutual funds always turn profits, just like full-service brokers would be making for you.
Online Brokerage Account Safety and Security
Whether you go with self-directed investing or interactive brokers on a better stock trading platform, your account minimum will always be safe and your information will always be kept as secure as possible, so you can act as your online broker without worrying about it being stolen. Most online brokers and interactive brokers utilize security features on their trading platforms that encrypt your data from end to end so your stock and ETF trades stay safe from outside interference. Your banking and personal information will be secure, and your account minimum will always be there for you.
The Securities Investor Protection Corporation will also insure your money in the event your stock trading platform goes bankrupt or shuts down, just like the money in your bank is protected. It’s also overseen by the financial industry regulatory authority so everything is safe, from mutual funds trades to ETF trades and options trades. No matter what you trade, you’ll always be safe and secure when you use the best brokerage accounts you can find.
Is My Money Insured at a Brokerage Firm?
No matter what kind of brokerage account you have at your brokerage firm, your money is always insured and protected, so you don’t have to worry about it disappearing from the trading platform or your account minimum being taken. The trading platform and online broker will use high security features and everything will be overseen so you can sell stocks and deal in commodities futures with full peace of mind. Every brokerage account gets the same level of security, whether you’re using interactive brokers or simply trading with the account minimum they require you to have.
It makes it easy to choose a brokerage firm that gives you access to commodities futures trading, mutual funds, options trades, and stock ETF trading when you know your money is insured and your information is always kept secure. You can make any investment decisions you want and the best online broker you can get will have your back, no matter what happens. Keep in mind that online brokers are overseen, just like all other brokerage accounts that you can open and manage.
Start Trading Futures Commodities with Online Brokers
The best online brokers and brokerage accounts are waiting to make futures commodities trading possible right now and you can choose to go with interactive brokers or use the information they’ve collected to be your best online broker on your own, it’s completely up to you and how you want to trade. Commodities futures. stock ETF trades and options trades can be some of the most lucrative moves you can make and there’s an online broker ready to give you the chance to make lots of money off the market. You’ll get information on trends, past activity, and everything else you need to be the best online broker that you can be while you trade on your own behalf and make moves by trading stocks.
There are also active traders who can do the work for you if you don’t have the time it takes to become an expert on commodities futures and financial advisors who know the market and how to carry out the best trading strategy for you and your money. You don’t have to know everything about the stock market to start trading and making money off your investments right now. Just choose the best online broker and you’ll have all the resources you need to turn a profit and benefit from commodities futures.
The FED is your friend plus the trend is your friend. The Federal Reserve is in an easing cycle which is a positive for the markets. I would like to see that trend continue and there be no change in the Fed’s stance, we don’t want to see economic reports which would hint at inflation creeping back up. Federal Reserve officials debated whether to lower interest rates by a quarter or half of a percentage point last month. Almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation had diminished, and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased. Inflation is broadly trending down. Markets had to digest a warmer-than-expected CPI report and a one-year high print in initial claims, rising geopolitical risks, along with higher oil prices and yields, yet stocks have been able to make new highs.
With markets at all-time highs, earnings season can be a boost or a test of lower support zones. All eyes will be on the earnings numbers and what executives have to say about their outlooks. In the week ahead, a number of influential companies are set to report. While the trend in stocks remains bullish, the environment is not without its risks and valuation is full. The forward P/E on the S&P 500 currently stands at roughly 22 versus the 10-year average of 17.7, per FactSet. Elevated valuation is largely driven by expectations for strong earnings growth and easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Therefore, Q3 earnings season, which unofficially kicked off, will likely need to deliver strong results to keep this bull market going. High earnings valuations are fully priced in this growth story, any miss on overall earnings can generate a valuation re-set and a pullback. I would also like to look at Thursday’s Retail Sales report. The last couple of Retail Sales reports have been stronger than expected, so this data point will provide a good read on the state of the U.S. consumer. Friday CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed a 0.3% month/month drop in consumer spending, which could suggest a soft Retail Sales report. If so, this could be enough to trigger a profit-taking pullback in stocks.
If NVDA can obtain a new all-time high, or the small cap’s Russell can break out to fresh two-year highs next week, these would likely be near-term bullish catalysts. I would like to see a continuation of the uptrend; However, I am very cautious as any negative news from earnings or the retail’s report can change the momentum until the next catalyst.
S&P fifth straight weekly gain. The market is hitting this level without much help from tech stocks and the Magnificent 7 as the rally broadens out to the financials in response to positive third-quarter numbers from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and BlackRock.
Multiples are high and portfolio managers are saying they’re uncomfortable buying at these levels, but there is a lot of money coming in from the sidelines therefore they feel that they have to participate. The index level feels expensive as well, I hear analysts are looking for mid cap size companies.
Banks delivered earnings on Friday and their prices went up, which is a good start for earnings season. Year to date; JPM is up 31%, C 28%, GS 33%, BAC 25%, WFC 24%. That’s higher than the S&P YTD.
Cybersecurity: is making new highs, see ETF – BUG.
Money is coming out of China-related stocks on some disappointment around stimulus. Those dollars are rotating out of China tech names such as Alibaba and moving into the U.S. tech giants.
Bond yields rose this week, primarily driven by the warmer-than-expected inflation data. Two-year Treasury yields increased to 3.955% from 3.923% while 10-year yields tacked on roughly 10 basis points to 4.085% from 3.981%
Earnings & Economic reports this week: Monday, Oct.14: Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Tuesday, Oct. 15: Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), UnitedHealth (UNH), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) United Airlines (UAL), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and JB Hunt(JBHT) Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)
Wednesday, Oct.16: Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), ASML (ASML), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens (CFG) and Prologis (PLD) Alcoa (AA), PPG Industries(PPG), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Discover (DFS) and Crown Castle (CCI) Discover Financial Services (DFS), Equifax Inc. (EFX)
Taiwan Semi (TSM), Travelers (TRV), Elevance (ELV), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Blackstone (BX), Truist (TFC) and KeyCorp(KEY) Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Crown Holdings (CCK) Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV),
Friday, Oct. 18: Housing Starts & Building Permits. American Express (AXP), SLB (SLB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY), Comerica Inc. (CMA),
Technical Analysis:
While the SPX and DOW made new all-time highs, the Nasdaq 100 did not. But it continued to trend higher this week and is on pace to close less than 2% below the all-time closing high of 20,675, hit back on July 10th. If Nvidia sets fresh all-time highs this could signal to markets that the AI trade is alive and well and should help the NASDAQ, but other AI plays are trading well as well, such as ORCL, AVGO, PLTR.
Small caps: the Russell is heavily weighted on regional banks and health care. The Russell 2000 was the relative outperformer Friday (+1.64%), assisted by several strong earnings reports out of the financial sector Friday. The index trading range is roughly 2,050-2,260. If the Index can notch a fresh two-year closing high this could send a bullish technical signal to the markets that small caps are finally ready to join the party.
Market breadth:closed out the week strongly, with roughly 75% of SPX components trading above their respective 200-day moving averages. No change in market breadth. On a week-over-week basis, the SPX) breadth ticked down to 75.75% from 76.35%, the CCMP ticked up to 44.66% from 44.09%, and the RTY is flat at 55.87% from 55.76%.
Overseas: rates are in the news ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision Thursday. The ECB has cut rates twice in 2024, and analysts expect a third one next week and a fourth in December, Reuters reported.
Bonds: Economy defies gravity, sending bond yields higher. The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations by growing faster than expected. Despite all of the constraints —tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy, weak global growth, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and low consumer confidence. GDP growth has been running at about a 3% annualized pace over the past four quarters. The major driver behind the growth is consumer spending. Supported by steady job and income growth, consumers are spending at a pace that is keeping the economy buoyant. In the Treasury bond market, yields, which generally move inversely to prices, have rebounded on these signs of strength.
What stands out to me: ever since the Microsoft Constellation energy deal, I have been looking for plays in the Energy sector particularly in nuclear power plants. Listen to Brad Gerstner podcast on BG2. I welcome any insight and news on the subject from any of you.
futures I am watching this week:
Have an amazing week.
The outlook contained in this article are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Futures trading is risky and suitable for everyone.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Unleaded Swing Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:
The Week Ahead
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
A relatively Quiet Data week next week, Geopolitics may be the only driver of volatility. One Caveat: the Fed Speakers dialogue may be given much more weight by investors as there will be a lot less noise in the form of Economic Data and earnings from prominent “Magnificent Seven” stocks to drive market volatility.
Prominent Earnings this Week:
Tues, pre-open United Healthcare, B Of A, Goldman Sachs, Citi Group, Johns and Johnson
Wed. Abbott Labs,
Thu. NetFlix Post-Close
FED SPEECHES:
Mon. Kashkari, Waller, 2nd Kashkari.
Tue. Kugler, Bostic
Wed. QUIET
Thu. QUIET
Fri. Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Bostic
Big Economic Data week:
Mon. BANKS CLOSED-Columbus Day National Holiday
Tues. Quiet
Wed. Quiet
Thur. Bus. Inventories, Jobless Claims.
Fri. Housing Starts, Building Permits
Futures 101: Crude Oil – What’s in Store for the next 2 Weeks?
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December heating oil Rallied to its second upside PriceCount objective before correcting. At this point if the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the 3rd count would project a possible run into the 2.59 area
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Economic Reports
provided by:ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
#Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker With Equities quietly trading in a consolidation phase, Interest rates following, the precious metals ,once again found footing and surprised many traders with their mid-day upside move, Gold higher by $36.00 @ 2689.00, Silver up $1.50 into the $32.50 /Troy OZ range.. The US Dollar @ 100.10 continuing it’s 2.5 month long slide, flirting with 14 month lows of 99.22. Metals should gain additional strength if the dollar falls below that number on a closing basis. Todays Headlines Updated: September 24, 2024 6:12 am Churning hurricane threatening US production, continued Middle East tensions, and Chinese stimulus measures have helped crude oil prices trade higher on Tuesday. Updated: September 24, 2024 7:00 am China’s central bank announced its largest stimulus measures since the pandemic. The bank will lower interest rates and additional funding. However, analysts say very week consumer and business demand for credit will have little response to lower interest rates, and the lack of fiscal stimulus measures will leave the central bank’s response to fall short of jump starting the economy and beating back deflationary environment. Updated: September 24, 2024 7:55 am Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.2% in the first three weeks of September 2024 vs September 2023 **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +4.4% in the week ending September 21 vs yr ago week Updated: September 24, 2024 8:00 am Case Schiller 20 US Metro-Area Home Prices Recap **Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for July Y/Y: +5.9% from the year ago month **Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for July M/M: +0.01% vs prior month Updated: September 24, 2024 9:02 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Headline Recap **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Index: -21.0 ; prior -19.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Shipments Index: -18.0 ; prior -15.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing New Orders: -23.0 ; prior -26.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Employees: -22.0 ; prior -15.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Prices Paid: +3.36 ; prior +2.45 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Prices Received: +1.57 ; prior +1.87 **Richmond Fed September Service Sector Index:-1.0 ; prior -11.0 Updated: September 24, 2024 9:09 am Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Present Situation, Expectations Index Headline Recap **Conference Board September Consumer Confidence Index: 98.7 ; prior revised to 105.6 from 103.3 ; expected 102.8 **Conference Board September Consumer Present Situation Index: 124.3 ; prior revised to 134.6 from 134.4 **Conference Board September Consumer Expectations Index: 81.7 ; prior revised to 86.3 from 82.5 Tomorrows Movers and Shakers New Home Sales Released On 9/25/2024 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2024 US new home sales data for June will be updated Wednesday morning at 9:00 am CT. Analysts expect new home sales month-to-month at a 0.640 mln unit annualized pace, up +3.4%. The prior month’s sales were -11.3% at 0.619 mln unit annual rate. Micron Technology reports after the close
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
#Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology
September 23, 2024 by GalTrades.com
Powel said at the Jackson hole meeting, “The time has come for policy to adjust,” The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”
It didn’t matter if we got a .25 or .50 basis point rate cut, earnings growth will determine if the market can keep going up.
The market made new all-time highs, but only one MAG7 stock made new all-time high, META. That means the rally is broadening, a positive point for the market.
The S&P is currently trading at a forward P/E of 21 which suggests that a lot has been priced regarding the bull thesis. Valuations are high and that should be noted. How much higher can the market go up? remains to be seen.
“don’t fight the Fed” or “don’t fight the trend” are statements to sustain near-term bullish momentum. Aside from the FED cutting rates, the economy still appears to be on firm footing.
Next week the earnings and economic calendar is relatively light, outside of next Friday’s PCE report, but perhaps this can be conducive for recent bullish momentum. In the absence of news, the path of least resistance is higher. Yes, we are still in the midst of bearish seasonality, but the technicals look encouraging.
Going forward bad news is good news because the FED will need to lower rates on bad news, unless the news is disastrous.
As long as the SPX can remain above July’s prior all-time closing high 5,667, we should see continuation. An SPX close below 5,667 could introduce concerns of a false breakout to all-time highs, which would likely introduce some additional selling pressure
A positive point: 76% of the S&P 500 stocks are above there 50 Day Moving Averages and 76% are above their 200 Day MA.
Year to date the two top performing factors were momentum and growth which were up 29/27 % respectively. The two worst preforming groups were yield and value stocks. In the last 3 month that flipped. Dividend and value stocks get an uptick when rates come down.
I see analysts calling for the small caps to go up with rate cuts. The action on Wednesday didn’t show that. It may be wise to react as opposed to jumping in now. It would make more sense for mid-caps to go up prior to small caps as there are more profitable companies in mid-cap sectors.
Statistics show post-election the markets usually end higher. And in the past when the FED has cut rates in a soft landing, or no landing markets ended up higher for the next 6 to 12 months almost 100% of the time.
Cyclical, mortgage, auto loan rates and small cap stand to benefit from rate cuts.
Rate cuts can ignite small caps and value stocks. The IJR index contains a higher % of companies which are profitable as opposed to the IWM Russell 2000.
Bull market indicators usually benefit capital market plays, stocks such as; CBOE, IBKR, BLK, GS. Rate cuts should help the homebuilders XHB ETF.
If Fed rate cuts can bring short-end bond yields down to more normal rates, then banks wouldn’t have to overcompensate at the long end and longer-term loans like mortgages could come down. That would put more money in the pockets of everyday Americans and help fuel all sectors of the stock market — not to mention the benefit lower rates have on valuations.
Commodities and oil prices are down, rates are coming down. That’s all good for companies and the consumer.
Energy companies as opposed to the price of oil. historically this sector has been one of the best sectors going into a rate cut. What we didn’t have in the past is a slowdown in China, that narrative should put a lid on appreciation. There may be some individual names that are exceptions.
FINISH ARTICLE HERE
Daily Levels for September 23, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by:ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Important Notices – Heavy Fed Speaking, Active Data, Few Earnings
Futures 101 – Tick Size & Minimum Fluctuations
Hot Market of the Week – March Sugar
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Copper Swing Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:
The Week Ahead
Heavy Fed Speak Week, active data and a few earnings highlight the week ahead.
Light Earnings, by largest Market Cap
Wed, Micron Technologies After the close
Thursday, Accenture pre-open, Costco after the close
Fed Speak schedule
Mon. Goolsbee 9:15am CDT, Kashkari Noon CDT
Tues. Bowman 8:00am CDT
Wed. Kugler 3:00pm CDT
Thu. Collins 8:10amCDT, Powell 8:20am CDT, Williams 8:25 CDT, Treasury Sec. Yellen 10:15am CDT
Big Economic Data week:
Mon. S&P PMI Flash
Tues. Case-Shiller Home prices, CB Consumer Confidence, Redbook, Richmond Fed.
Wed. Building Permits, New Home Sales
Thur. Jobless Claims, Core PCE Final, GDP Final, Durable goods, Pending Home sales
Fri. Personal Income, Retail and Wholesale Inventories, Michigan consumer sentiment
How to Rollover on the E-Futures Platform video below
Futures 101: Tick Movements: Understanding How They Work
Minimum Price Fluctuation
All futures contracts have a minimum price fluctuation also known as a tick. Tick sizes are set by the exchange and vary by contract instrument.
E-min S&P 500 tick
For example, the tick size of an E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract is equal to one quarter of an index point. Since an index point is valued at $50 for the E-Mini S&P 500, a movement of one tick would be
.25 x $50 = $12.50
NYMEX WTI Crude Oil
The tick size of the NYMEX WTI Crude Oil contract is equal to 1 cent and the WTI contract size is 1,000 barrels. Therefore, the value of a one tick move is $10.
Summary
Tick sizes are defined by the exchange and vary depending on the size of the financial instrument and requirements of the marketplace. Tick sizes are set to provide optimal liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads.
The minimum price fluctuation for any CME Group contract can be found on the product specification pages.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
March sugar has shifted its formation back to the topisde and activated upside PriceCount objectives in the process. The chart accelerated to its first upside count to the 21.85 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction form theis level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trdae. IF you can sustain further strength, the second count projects a possible run to the 23.26 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Volume is reported for all futures contracts. It is calculated by counting the number of contracts that have been bought and sold over a given time. You can track volume using different time intervals like daily or intraday.
When a futures contract is traded, whether bought or sold, it counts towards volume for that contract.
For example, a trader closes a short position in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures contract by buying one contract in the ES, so volume will increase by 1.
Traders often use and interpret the rise or decline of volume in a futures contract to help make trading decisions.
Volume can give important information to traders such as:
Indicate the price levels at which traders are more or less interested in trading a futures contract
During the roll, indicate to traders when to switch to trading the front month futures contract as volume decreases in the expiring contract
Identify the times of day when a futures contract is most liquid
Price Levels
When volume changes as price of a futures contract moves towards certain levels, this can indicate to a trader that a change in direction may occur. Some traders may use this information to indicate whether to buy or sell at those key levels.
Contract Roll
During the futures rollover, traders pay attention to the contract that is taking the higher levels of volume. Traders use this information to determine when to start trading the next month contract. As volume decreases in the expiring contract, trading will shift to the next available month contract.
For example, say the June ES (E-mini S&P 500) futures contract is about to expire and September will become the new front month. On the Thursday of rollover week, watch how the June contract starts to lose volume and the September contract begins to pick up volume. When the September contract has more volume than the June contract, it is time to switch to the September contract.
Active Periods
Traders typically prefer higher volume times to trade, as it means that more traders are actively interested in buying and selling. When volume is high, the bid-ask spread is typically smaller, orders are filled faster and less gaps may exist between ticks.
For example, markets can have lower volume between the hours of 12:00 p.m.-2:00 p.m. ET, before major economic releases; conversely, market often see higher volume around the open and close of the trading day.
Traders also can look at average daily volume over a longer time period, such as a few weeks or months, to see if the markets currently are in a lower or higher volume than is typical.
Summary
What volume can’t show however, is whether traders are buying or selling, or opening or closing a position.
For example, if the ES contract is trading at 2375 and suddenly pushes down to 2360 while volume increases, the volume that comes into the market could be from traders opening new long positions at key levels of support. That could indicate a bullish sentiment. Volume also can be generated by liquidation of exiting long positions or opening of new short positions, a possible bearish indication.
A spike in volume at 2360 doesn’t necessarily mean that buyers are coming into the market and that the price will bounce.
Volume data is readily available for each futures contract and for the market as a whole. Although traders may use volume in different ways to interpret how to trade, volume can be an important factor to help inform your trading decisions.
Hot Market of the Week – June Bonds
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The June 30 Year T-Bond break found temporary stability at its second downside PriceCount objective recently. Now, the chart has resumed its slide into new lows which, if sustained, would project a run to the third count in the 109^20 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The U.S. GDP experienced a modest increase of 1.6% in the first quarter, marking the slowest expansion in two years. This news prompted a downturn in U.S. stock markets. But should investors be concerned about this figure?
Ben Laidler, the Global Markets Strategist at eToro, appeared on Wealth! to shed light on the implications of the GDP data for investor portfolios.
Laidler commented, “The recent GDP figure isn’t ideal, yet it’s not as dire as it may seem. The core elements that matter to us—business investment and consumer spending—are holding strong. The observed softness is largely attributed to less critical factors, which are expected to rebound in the next quarter, specifically trade and inventory levels.
While the inflation metric is slightly unsettling, it’s best to wait for the upcoming release of the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This will provide us with more clarity on the extent of our concerns regarding the current economic situation.”
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
US new home sales data for June will be updated Wednesday morning at 9:00 am CT. Analysts expect new home sales month-to-month at a 0.640 mln unit annualized pace, up +3.4%. The prior month’s sales were -11.3% at 0.619 mln unit annual rate. Micron Technology reports after the close 
