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Category: E-Mini Futures
Fed Easing Cycle Fuels Market Rally Amid Earnings Season and Economic Uncertainty
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Weekly Newsletter: Understanding Margins, May Bean Meal Outlook and Automated NQ System
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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1186
In this issue:
- Important Notices – Good Friday Trading Schedule
- Trading Resource of the Week – Understanding Margins
- Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Meal
- Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ Intraday System
- Trading Levels for Next Week
- Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
- 4 Day Trading week, All Mkts closed Good Friday (MKTS closed from Thursday afternoon until Sunday Afternoon)
- 6 Data releases: New home sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, GDP (Q4 final), Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI
- Grain traders! Big Prospective plantings report Thursday Morning.
- Night Traders, WATCHOUT for volatility Wednesday and Sunday. Fed Speaker Waller: Econ. Outlook 6PM EDT. Jerome Powell Friday Morning 11:30 EDT @SF Monetary Policy Conference.
Trading Resource of the Week : Understanding Margins by CMEgroup.com
Understanding Margin
Securities margin is the money you borrow as a partial down payment, up to 50% of the purchase price, to buy and own a stock, bond, or ETF. This practice is often referred to as buying on margin.
Futures margin is the amount of money that you must deposit and keep on hand with your broker when you open a futures position. It is not a down payment and you do not own the underlying commodity.
Futures margin generally represents a smaller percentage of the notional value of the contract, typically 3-12% per futures contract as opposed to up to 50% of the face value of securities purchased on margin.
Margins Move with the Markets
When markets are changing rapidly and daily price moves become more volatile, market conditions and the clearinghouses’ margin methodology may result in higher margin requirements to account for increased risk.
When market conditions and the margin methodology warrant, margin requirements may be reduced.
Types of Futures Margin
Initial margin is the amount of funds required by CME Clearing to initiate a futures position. While CME Clearing sets the margin amount, your broker may be required to collect additional funds for deposit.
Maintenance margin is the minimum amount that must be maintained at any given time in your account.
If the funds in your account drop below the maintenance margin level, a few things can happen:
- You may receive a margin call where you will be required to add more funds immediately to bring the account back up to the initial margin level.
- If you do not or can not meet the margin call, you may be able to reduce your position in accordance with the amount of funds remaining in your account.
- Your position may be liquidated automatically once it drops below the maintenance margin level.
Summary
Futures margin is the amount of money that you must deposit and keep on hand with your broker when you open a futures position. It is not a down payment, and you do not own the underlying commodity.
The term margin is used across multiple financial markets. However, there is difference between securities margins and futures margins. Understanding these differences is essential, prior to trading futures contracts.
- Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Meal
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
May Bean Meal
May meal satisfied its first upside PriceCount objective and is correcting lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the second count would project a possible run to the 356.5 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
Mini NASDAQ 100
SYSTEM TYPE
Intraday
COST
USD 55 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$20,000
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Daily Levels for March 25th 2024
Trading Reports for Next Week
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Your Futures Daily Blog: Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course
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Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course
Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.
In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:
- How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
- Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
- The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
- Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
- Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
- Creating effective trading technique strategies
- Qualities of Successful Traders
Grow Your Trading – Start Now!
Daily Levels for March 22nd, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Markets Post FOMC + Levels for March 21st 2024
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Life After FOMC …..
by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
General:
The Federal Reserve took center stage today. With inflation proving stickier than expected, the central bank has found itself balancing between a hawkish and dovish view. The policy-setting FOMC held interest rates steady at the 5.25%-5.50% range for the fifth straight meeting. The bigger indicator traders were eager to see was the Fed governors’ so-called dot plot that updated their rate and economic projections – for the first time since December. Turns out, it didn’t deviate from the three rate cuts they previously penciled in by the end of 2024.
Indexes:
As of this typing, the June E-mini S&P 500 is trading at new all-time highs around 5280. As well, the June E-mini Dow Jones is trading at its own all-time highs, barely 100 points away from 40,000!
Metals:
April gold is on the verge of eking out its own all-time high close above last Monday’s closing price of $2,188.60 per ounce. It’s currently trading ±$2,191.00 per ounce
General pt. II:
Over the weekend, Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, marking a historic shift away from an aggressive monetary easing program that was implemented years ago to fight chronic deflation. As part of the decision, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, lifting its short-term rate to “around zero to 0.1%” from minus 0.1%.
Plan your trade and trade your plan
Daily Levels for March 21st, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Rollover, CPI & Futures Trading Levels for 03.12.24
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CPI Tomorrow – Trade June ES/NQ/YM and MICROS
by John Thorpe, Senior Broker
For all of you index traders, you may have noticed the shrinking Open Interest and Volume in the March contracts. It’s that time when volume shifts to the next quarterly expiration contract. June! the symbol is M.
March volume will be drying up quickly, don’t get stuck Friday morning with a March contract at the crack of dawn when the carousel stops. Start trading the June contract today!
According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 has averaged an 0.8% move on CPI days over the past six months
Today, stocks are sideways, the dollar and gold are both up marginally as investors nervously await tomorrows 7:30 a.m. CDT Consumer Price Index release.
Last Month, on Feb 13th stocks slid sharply following the release and Treasury yields surged higher when a surprise CPI number, an Increase of 0.3% in January, crossed the newswires. Housing costs accounted for much of the price rise.
Overall prices are expected to rise 0.4% percent after increasing 0.3% percent in January. Annual rates, which in January were 3.1% percent overall and 3.9% percent for the core, are expected at 3.1% and 3.7% percent respectively. Per econoday.
Plan your trade and trade your plan
Watch video below on how to rollover from March to June contracts if you are a stock index trader on our E-Futures Platform!
Daily Levels for March 12th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Analysis of gold as we hit all time highs!
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Gold’s Performance Against U.S., Asian Equities the Past Century
By Erik Norland of CMEGroup.com
Is gold a more profitable investment than equities over the long term? Our finding is that the value of gold has mostly held its own against the U.S. equity market since the S&P 500 time series began over 94 years ago (Figure 1). A well-defined picture of their performance through peaks and troughs is evident when the S&P 500 dollar value is repriced in gold, which is done by dividing the S&P 500 by the U.S. dollar price of one troy ounce of bullion (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Overall, gold has nearly held its own versus equities over the past 100 years.
The S&P 500/gold ratio has been subject to extremely strong trends and occasional periods of consolidation which correspond with different economic and geopolitical situations, some of which benefitted equities relative to gold and vice versa. Generally, equities have done better than gold during periods of geopolitical stability, disinflation and steady economic growth, while gold tends to outperform during periods of instability. Switching from one circumstance to another can set off powerful trends in the S&P 500/gold ratio that can last for years, even decades. The same goes for Asian equity markets when compared to gold, although the price history isn’t as long and the patterns differ both in equity market performance and trends in the currency market.
Since the equity market’s peak on September 3, 1929, the S&P 500/gold ratio has been through six distinct eras:
- 1929-1942: The Great Depression and the Rise of the Axis Powers: Between 1929 and 1933 S&P 500 fell by 86% in U.S. dollar terms. In 1933, the incoming Roosevelt Administration’s first action was to devalue the dollar versus gold from $23 to $35 per ounce, a 52% gain for anyone who was still able to hold on to gold. Between 1933 and 1942, equities stagnated as the U.S. struggled to recover from the Depression and as the Axis Powers of Germany, Italy and Japan reached their peak of expansion in 1942.
- 1942-1968: Allied Victory, Bretton Woods and Superpower Parity: as the Allies turned the tide in the war, equity markets began to rally. Stocks continued upward with only brief pauses around the time of the Korean War and the Cuban missile crisis. Under the post-war Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, the dollar remained fixed at $35 per ounce and foreign currencies were pegged to the dollar. The S&P 500 soared 1,165% versus the dollar and gold.
- 1968-1980: Overheating and Stagflation: The combination of the Great Society program and Vietnam War overheated the U.S. economy, leading to successive waves of inflation. Amid rising prices, the U.S. dollar peg to gold was no longer tenable. In 1971, the Nixon Administration pulled the plug on Bretton Woods, setting off a rally in gold prices that took the yellow metal from $35 to $800 per ounce by the end of the decade. Equity prices traded sideways in a wide range during this period of uncertainty which also featured the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam, the 1973 Arab Embargo, the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Relative to gold, the S&P 500 fell by 95%.
- 1980-2000: Disinflation and Pax Americana: Over the course of two decades the S&P 500 rose by 4,137% versus gold as stock prices soared and precious metals retreated amid tight money, falling inflation and improved economic growth.
- 2000-2011: The Tech Wreck, War on Terror and the Global Financial Crisis: during this period, the S&P 500 lost 89% in gold terms.
- 2011-2021: Pax Americana Part 2: From 2011-2019 equities soared amid a slow, low-inflation recovery in the U.S. that sent the price of gold substantially lower. While equities fell in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, fiscal stimulus and $4.9 trillion of Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) purchases initially benefitted equities more than gold. Overall, the S&P 500 outperformed gold by 337% during this time.
What’s next? The S&P fell 28% versus gold from late 2021 through 2022, and despite its 2023 rebound led by mega-cap companies dubbed the Magnificent Seven, it remains 5% lower versus gold as of late February 2024 despite being about 6% above its 2021 highs when expressed in dollar terms. A few points are clear:
- The S&P has lost its upside momentum versus gold.
- The world may have entered a lasting period of geopolitical instability with Russia and other powers challenging the U.S.-led order.
- It’s not clear if the U.S. and its peers will return to lastingly low levels of inflation or not.
- Central banks have conducted the biggest tightening cycle in over 40 years, which may increase the risk of a global economic downturn and subsequent monetary easing.
These points have the potential to turn the tide against U.S. equities, which are highly valued (see our related article here), in favor of hard assets like gold. But what about much less expensive equity markets like those in China, Japan and Korea? South Korea’s KOSPI Index, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index have their own strong trends versus gold.
Plan your trade and trade your plan
Daily Levels for March 6th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Highlights & Announcements + Futures Trading Levels for 02.23.24
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Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements
General / Stock Indexes:
You can’t keep a good index down. When the stock price of a member of the Magnificent Seven Stocks – artificial-intelligence chip leader Nvidia – advances 15% for the day on its quarterly earnings report and the company’s market cap. approaches $2-Trillion, it moves the stock indexes of which it is a component – the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500.
Their related futures contracts lead the way with the S&P 500 claiming its largest daily increase in months – over 105 points at this typing – to new all-time highs for the contract, pushing over 5,100. The E-mini Nasdaq advanced ±550 points over 18,000 and the E-mini Dow Jones added over ±500 points to set its own new all-time high near 39,200.
Not to be outdone, Japan’s main stock index, the Nikkei 225, closed at its own new all-time high above 39,000, a level it set 34 years ago before the country fell into the doldrums of a deflationary economy. In fact, the Nikkei has been the world’s best-performing major index in 2024, surging ±17.5% only two months into the year and trouncing the impressive ±5% advance of the S&P 500. Ironically, Japan is still amidst a recession and just fell behind Germany to the no. 4 spot among the world’s leading economies.
Largest economies in the world by GDP (nominal) in 2023
according to International Monetary Fund estimates
Metals:
After a week-long ±$50 break to below $2,000/oz. intraday on Feb. 14, April gold recovered ±$30 and has stayed rangebound over the last few trading sessions as the minutes of the Fed’s late-January meeting released yesterday showed that the bank was in no hurry to begin cutting interest rates.
Grains:
March corn futures dropped to three-year lows today, trading within five cents of $4.00 per bushel on plentiful domestic supply and signals that South America will harvest strong crops this year.
Energies:
Signs of production declines sent natural gas futures contracts into rally mode this week with the front month March contract seeing a ±20-cent increase off its life-of-contract lows – a ±$2,000 move. U.S. exploration and production company Chesapeake Energy signaled it plans to reduce its natural gas production this year by roughly 30% given extremely low prices.
Daily Levels for February 23rd, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Natural Gas lows, Market Sell off Post CPI + Futures Trading Levels for 02.14.24
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- Take a look at Natural Gas new lows…..
- What about Cocoa new highs….
- Today’s CPI was as good as advertised…take a look at NQ 1 minute chart below from today
- May Coffee, Cotton, Cocoa are now front months due to higher volume in the May contract
- Busy week ahead with many reports. See image below.
NQ 1 min chart from today’s CPI , market moving report.
Daily Levels for February 14th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
CME Fees Increase Update + Levels for 02.1.24
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CME Fees Increase Update:
Effective tomorrow, February 1, the CME Group is raising the exchange fees for a number of futures contracts.
For the CME E-mini equity products: E-mini S&P 500 (ES), E-mini Nasdaq (NQ), E-mini Dow Jones (YM) and E-mini Russelll 2000 (RTY), fees are going up by 5 cents, from $1.33 to $1.38
For the NYMEX energy products: Crude oil (CL), Heating oil (HO), RBOB Unleaded gas (RBOB) and Natural gas (NG) fees are going up by 10 cents, from $1.50 to $1.60
For the COMEX metals products: Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Copper (HG) and Platinum (PL) fees are going up by 5 cents, from $1.55 to $1.60
For the COMEX E-mini metals products: miNY gold (QO), miNY silver (QI), miNY copper (QC) fees are going up by 25 cents, from $0.75 to $1.00
All other products / symbols will remain the same.
Daily Levels for February 1st, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
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