NFP Tomorrow, September Dollar Index, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Crucial Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on August 1st, 2025

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NFP Tomorrow

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

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Prepare for Tomorrow’s First Friday: NFP Meets Month-Start Volume

Tomorrow marks the first Friday of the month, which means two things for futures and FX traders: the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the natural volume uptick that often comes with month-beginning flows. Combining a high-impact economic release with typically heavier order flow sets the stage for elevated volatility—and potential opportunity.

Why NFP Drives Volatility

– The headline jobs number and the unemployment rate are among the most influential data points for Fed policy expectations.

– Surprises (even by a few thousand jobs) can trigger immediate swings in stock index futures, Treasury futures, FX and commodities.

– High-frequency and algorithmic traders often reload positions right before and after the print, amplifying short-term moves.

Month-Start Volume Patterns

– Corporate and institutional managers adjust exposures at month boundaries, generating extra order flow in equity and bond futures.

– Portfolio rebalancing, pension contributions, and cash withdrawals/additions create natural buy/sell pressure.

– Combining these flows with an NFP release can lead to deeper liquidity pockets—but also faster fills and bigger gaps.

Key Trading Considerations

1. Pre-print positioning

– Lighten large directional bets ahead of the 8:30 am Eastern release.

– Identify key levels (prior-month high/low, round numbers) to bracket potential moves.

2. Execution tools

– Use volume- or range-bar charts to filter noise during rapid price swings.

– Consider spread or straddle strategies to capture volatility without outright directional risk.

3. Risk management

– Widen initial stops to account for wider spreads and slippage.

– Trade smaller size or switch to highly liquid markets (e.g., E-mini S&P, 30-year bonds) if you’re concerned about whipsaw.

Action Plan for Tomorrow

– Monitor the Atlanta Fed’s jobs tracker and ADP release for hints of the NFP surprise factor.

– Set alerts at your chosen intraday levels and be ready to step aside if the market action outpaces your risk limits.

– After the print, watch volume‐profile clusters for early signs of trend continuation or exhaustion.

Tomorrow’s convergence of NFP data and month-start flows often produces some of the liveliest—and most tradable (riskier?)—sessions of the calendar. Prepare your playbook, mind your risk, and get ready to capture high-probability setups. Good luck!

 

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September Dollar Index

The September dollar index found stability earlier this month and now it has activated upside PriceCount objectives on the correction. The first count projects a possible run to the 100.58 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Aug 1st, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Crude Oil, The Dollar, FOMC, September KC Wheat, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Crucial Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 30th, 2025

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Dollar Strength, Crude Oil Rally’s hard, FOMC tomorrow

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting tomorrow, July 30, 2025. Market analysts and interest rate traders currently assign a very high probability—over 95%- a pause, with no rate hike or cut anticipated at this meeting.

Economists are expecting the first look at US 2Q 2025 GDP to show the economy grew by +2.4% on quarter over quarter terms, if realized that would be up from the final 1Q report -0.5% contraction. The advanced 2Q 2025 chain weighted price index is expected up +2.3%, and compares with the final 1Q report, up +3.8%. The data will be released at 7:30 am CT Wednesday morning.

The Crude market rally’s hard today on news Trump threatens 100% tariff on China if it continues to buy Russian crude oil. Front month September +$2.77 as of this writing. $2700.00 per contract. Crude has rallied nearly $5.00 bbl since the opening of Sunday evenings session. Yesterday’s OPEC+ maintained its current oil output policy at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, with no changes to production plans.

The JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) emphasized the critical importance of full conformity with agreed production levels, noting uneven compliance among some members.

The US Dollar may have bottomed in the short term as the past week we have seen signs of life. A 2.5% rally from the July 1 lows. The awakening of the dollar is not bullish for our export markets.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  GDP, FOMC Rate decision, EIA Crude Stocks, Beige book

FED:  Rate decision @ 1:00pm, followed by 1:30 press conference.

Earnings:  Qualcomm, Meta, Microsoft

Tariff news:   Anything goes!

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September KC – Chicago Wheat

The September KC – Chicago wheat spread came up short of its low percentage fourth downside PriceCount objective early this month. Now, on the correction we have activated upside objectives. The first count projects a recovery to the -3 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 30th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Volatility, Trillion $ Earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls, September Emini S&P, Levels, Reports; Your 7 Expert Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures the week of July 28th, 2025

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1251

  • The Week Ahead – Trillion $ Earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls & More!

  • Futures 101 – Building a Trading Plan

  • Hot Market of the Week – September Emini S&P

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Platinum Swing Trading System

  • Trading Levels for Next Week

  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

volatility

Volatility

The Week Ahead,

More Trillion-dollar market cap companies to report Q2 earnings, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta and Berkshire Hathaway, Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed Interest Rate decision followed by presser with Chair Powell on Wednesday.

Subdued Volatility, from the geopolitical front for the moment, let us hope it remains that way. Tariff impacts are creating volatility in commodity markets (industrial metals, Orange Juice, Coffee, Grains) look for news about China, Canada and Mexico Tariffs in the next 7 days to impact equity, bond and commodity prices.

Remember that current market drivers for Equities are hard data on Jobs, Inflation, Trump tweets and Geopolitics. Watch for the gold market to maintain its rangebound stance, close below 3350 (basis December)or above 3500 should denote a breakout, Begin trading the December(Z) contract next week.

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of Big Earnings, Interest Rates and Fed Speak and U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals.

 Earnings Next Week: 

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. United Healthcare, UPS, Merck, P&G
  • Wed. MSFT, Berkshire Hathaway, Qualcomm
  • Thu. AMZN, Mastercard, S&P global.
  • Fri.   Chevron

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT) 

  • Mon.   Quiet
  • Tues.  Quiet
  • Wed.  1 pm central; Fed Rate Decision, Powell presser 1:30 pm CDT
  • Thu.   Quiet
  • Fri.     Quiet

Economic Data week: 

  • Mon.  Dallas Fed,
  • Tue.    Retail inventories, Redbook, Case-Schiller Home PX, Jolts,
  • Wed. ADP employment change, GDP, Pending home Sales,  EIA Crude Stocks, Fed Rates
  • Thur.  Jobless claims, Core PCE, Initial Claims, CHGO PMI, EIA NAT GAS Storage, K. City Fed Activity index
  • Fri.  Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM manufacturing, Mich. Consumer Sentiment
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Building a Trading Plan

He who fails to plan is planning to fail” -Winston Churchill

Traders who win consistently treat trading as a business. While there is no guarantee that you will make money, developing a trading plan is crucial if you want to become consistently successful and thrive in the trading game. Every trader—no matter your experience—needs a plan.

Why are you here?

  • You want to know what constitutes a trading plan
  • You realize you need a trading plan
  • You want to be successful at futures trading

You’re in the right place for any those objectives. At the end of this course, you’ll understand why you need a trading plan and how to build one to support your success as a futures trader.

What is a trading plan?

A trading plan is a business plan for your trading career. Like any business plan, a trading plan is a working document in which you make assumptions about projected costs, revenues, and business conditions. Some of your assumptions may be right, some will surely be wrong. You wouldn’t start a business without a business plan, so why would you start trading without a trading plan?

The real value in writing a trading plan is that it forces you to think about every part of your trading business, including confronting your strengths and weaknesses, and formulating reasonable expectations.

Any solid trading plan consists of the following five components. There are no shortcuts to developing a trading plan that will support your objectives. Take the time now to think about each of these components thoroughly and you will thank yourself later.

  1. Objective
  2. Methodology
  3. Risk Management
  4. Trading Strategies
  5. Trader Log
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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

September Emini S&P

September Emini S&P has broken out into a new contract high. The rally is approaching its second upside PriceCount objective to the 6479 area where it would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Swing5 Cont v.22 _ Platinum PL

Markets Traded:   Platinum Futures PL

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $60,000

Developer Fee per contract: $150 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More

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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE

Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

The returns for trading systems listed throughout this website are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real-time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data (backadjusted).

Please read carefully the CFTC required disclaimer regarding hypothetical results below. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Please read full disclaimer HERE.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for July 28th, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Risk Management, Trading Psychology, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Expert Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 25th, 2025

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Trading Futures – Risk Management & Trading Psychology

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Risk management and trading psychology are two critical aspects of success in the futures and commodities markets. Effective risk management strategies and a solid understanding of trading psychology are essential for traders to navigate the complexities of these markets and achieve long-term profitability. In this comprehensive discussion, we will delve into risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders, position sizing, diversification, and hedging strategies. Additionally, we will explore the psychological aspects of trading, including managing emotions, discipline, patience, and mental resilience.
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risk

Risk Management Strategies

Stop-Loss Orders

Stop-loss orders are one of the most widely used risk management tools in futures trading. A stop-loss order is an order placed with a broker to buy or sell a futures contract once the price reaches a specified level, known as the stop price. The purpose of a stop-loss order is to limit potential losses by automatically closing out a position if the market moves against the trader beyond a certain point.

For a theoretical example, if a trader buys a crude oil futures contract at $60 per barrel, they may set a stop-loss order at $55 per barrel. If the price of crude oil drops to $55, the stop-loss order will trigger, and the trader’s position will be automatically liquidated, limiting their loss to $5 per barrel.

Position Sizing

Position sizing refers to the process of determining the appropriate size of a futures position based on factors such as risk tolerance, account size, and market conditions. Proper position sizing is crucial for managing risk and avoiding overexposure to the market.

Traders often use a percentage-based approach to position sizing, where they risk a certain percentage of their account equity on each trade. For example, a trader may decide to risk 2% of their account equity on any single trade. If they have a $50,000 trading account, they would risk $1,000 on a trade, adjusting the position size based on the distance between the entry price and the stop-loss level.

Diversification

Diversification involves spreading risk across different asset classes, markets, or instruments to reduce overall portfolio risk. In futures trading, diversification can be achieved by trading multiple contracts across various sectors, such as energy, agriculture, metals, and financials.

By diversifying their trading portfolio, traders can potentially offset losses in one market with gains in another, reducing the impact of adverse price movements on their overall profitability. However, it’s essential to note that diversification does not eliminate risk entirely but rather helps manage and spread it.

Hedging Strategies

Hedging is a risk management technique used to protect against adverse price movements in the market. Futures traders often use hedging strategies to offset the risk of their primary positions or to hedge against external factors such as currency fluctuations or geopolitical events.

Common hedging strategies in futures trading include:

  • Short Hedging: Selling futures contracts to offset the risk of a long position in the underlying asset. For example, a farmer may sell corn futures to hedge against price declines in the physical corn they produce.
  • Long Hedging: Buying futures contracts to offset the risk of a short position in the underlying asset. For instance, an airline company may buy crude oil futures to hedge against rising fuel prices.

Trading Psychology

Managing Emotions

Emotions play a significant role in trading decisions, often leading to impulsive actions and irrational behavior. Effective traders learn to manage their emotions, including fear, greed, and euphoria, to make objective and rational trading decisions.

Managing emotions involves:

  • Developing a trading plan with predefined entry and exit criteria.
  • Sticking to the plan and avoiding emotional reactions to market fluctuations.
  • Practicing mindfulness and emotional awareness to identify and control emotional triggers.

Discipline

Discipline is crucial for success in futures trading. It involves following a consistent trading strategy, adhering to risk management rules, and maintaining a structured approach to trading.

Key aspects of discipline include:

  • Following trading rules and strategies without deviation.
  • Avoiding impulsive trades or revenge trading after losses.
  • Accepting losses as part of trading and learning from mistakes.

Patience

Patience is a virtue in futures trading, especially when waiting for favorable trading opportunities and allowing trades to develop according to the plan. Impatience can lead to premature entries or exits, increasing the risk of losses.

Practicing patience involves:

  • Waiting for confirmation signals and setups before entering trades.
  • Avoiding overtrading and chasing the market.
  • Allowing trades sufficient time to reach their targets or stop-loss levels.

Mental Resilience

Mental resilience is the ability to bounce back from losses, setbacks, and challenges in trading. It involves maintaining a positive mindset, learning from failures, and staying focused on long-term goals.

Building mental resilience includes:

  • Developing a growth mindset and embracing failures as learning opportunities.
  • Staying adaptable and flexible in response to changing market conditions.
  • Seeking support from mentors, peers, or trading communities during challenging times.

Risk management strategies and trading psychology are integral components of successful futures trading. Traders must implement effective risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders, position sizing, diversification, and hedging to protect their capital and manage market risk. Additionally, understanding and mastering trading psychology, including managing emotions, discipline, patience, and mental resilience, are crucial for making rational decisions and maintaining consistent profitability in the dynamic and competitive futures and commodities markets. By combining robust risk management practices with a disciplined and resilient trading mindset, traders can enhance their trading performance and achieve their financial goals.

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October Hogs

October hogs recently satisfied the second downside PriceCount objective and corrected higher. A further recovery above the July reactionary high would formally negate the remaining unmet downside counts.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 25th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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E-Mini, September Yen, Natural Gas, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 24th, 2025

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Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements

By Mark O’ Brien, Senior Broker

e-mini

Stock Indexes:

E-Mini

Stock index futures climbed today on the heels of news the U.S. struck a trade deal with Japan. The September E-mini Dow Jones contract rose more than 450 points, a ±$2,250-per contract move (>1%) and nearing its first record close of 2025. The E-mini S&P 500 moved up ±45 points, also a ±$2,250-point move and the E-mini Nasdaq rose ±60 points, both once again pacing for record closes.

Futures are readying for a big test in Google-parent Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings due after the bell, the first of the “Magnificent Seven” to report.

Energy:

Natural Gas

With elevated supply overshadowing demand, August natural gas futures floundered through midday today trading lower for a third consecutive session this week to an intraday low of $3.061, nearing an 8-month low of $2.974 posted intraday on Nov.4, 2024. The contract has made a ±$20,000 move down after trading briefly above $5.000 in early March.

Metals:

Gold

While gold futures are up around 30% so far this year (credit the global trade war, geopolitical risks and central bank buying as key drivers for the precious metals’ rally, that same trade deal saw Dec. Gold register a ±$45 per ounce loss today and once again trading back near $3,400 per ounce.

Copper futures hit a new record today as the U.S. market continues to brace itself for a 50% tariff next month. The most active September contracts on the CME soared as much to $5.930 per lb., a new all-time intraday high.

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September Japanese Yen

September Yen satisfied its second downside PriceCount recently and is correcting higher. IF the chart can resume its slide with new sustained lows, the third count would project a possible run to the 6528 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 24th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Crypto, Metals, September Crude Oil; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 17th, 2025

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Crypto, Metals

Trump Vs. Powell Moving the Markets

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

crypto

As the saying goes, “You can’t fight fundamentals.” It’s the idea that even if technical analysis suggests one thing, fundamentals will override the direction of an asset’s movement. There are numerous fundamentals traders keep an eye on, like economic indicators, weather, supply and demand dynamics, the seemingly endless news and information.

One fundamental indicator taking a front seat lately is almost any time U.S. president Trump steps up to a microphone and answers questions from members of the press, particularly on the subjects of the economy, tariffs, trade agreements with other countries and the like. Possibly more than any president in recent memory, the current one has put forth statements that markets have reacted to with outsized price moves. This is not likely to change anytime soon, so day traders be on the look-out for presidential press conferences and be prepared.

Metals:

Case in point from above: August gold futures thrust up ±$50 per ounce to a $3,385.80/oz. high intraday reacting to the latest case of President Trump raising the prospect of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from office. Today the president suggested he could attempt to remove Powell “for cause,” arguing the central bank spent too much money on renovations of two historic office buildings.

Back story: The Fed board approved the construction project in 2017, and the latest renovations began three years ago. The project has faced cost overruns in part because of unforeseen construction conditions including more asbestos than anticipated, toxic contamination in the soil and a higher-than-expected water table.

Economists and financial analysts have warned that a central bank that is more responsive to short-term political demands than long-term economic stability could over time lead to significant capital flight and periods of greater economic or financial instability.

Crypto:

A series of debates starting Monday in the U.S. House of Representatives, deemed “crypto week,” caused Bitcoin futures to surge to a new all-time intraday high Monday, to $123,610, capping a nearly 15% surge over the past month.

The debates are looking at crypto-friendly legislation making its way through Congress that could ease regulatory complexity long viewed as an impediment for the industry.

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September Crude Oil

September crude oil completed its second upside PriceCount objective last month and corrected lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a potential run to the 84.43 area.

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Daily Levels for July 17th, 2025

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CPI, PPI, Crude Oil, Treasury Bonds, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 16th, 2025

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CPI Gone, PPI & Beige Book Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

cpi

  C.P.I. has come and gone

In what used to create excess volatility, the C.P.I. posted it’s numbers pre stock market opening and was met by futures market equity participants with little enthusiasm. PPI, which has always followed a day later, will be released tomorrow .

The Mini S&P had a 15 point swing in less then twenty minutes and proceeded to trade lower, slowly throughout the live session. The Mini-Nasdaq popped with a 71 point range as it too, slowly marched with little enthusiasm lower the rest of the day.

It can be said that the only thing moving the markets these days in a consistent direction has been  a focus on tariffs. Not monetary policy, not fiscal policy, as more data is released, the negative cloud over the markets had been inflation and the effects tariffs would have on inflation. The economic data is just not materializing as Tariff hawks would have been inclined to bet the farm on.

Today, major earnings were reported in the first tranche of earnings reports for Q2 from the banks   JPM, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, Citi, B of NY, State Street. Tomorrow, we continue with more large money center banks namely PNC, B of A, J & J, Gold Sachs, Morgan Stanely in addition to Alcoa, a market measure of industrial demand.

 Tomorrow: 

Econ Data:  PPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, EIA Crude Stocks, Beige book

       FED  8:15am CT Hammack, 9 am Barr, 5:30 pm Willams

Earnings: PNC, B of A, J & J, Gold Sachs, M. Stanely, Alcoa

Tariff news:  Anything goes!

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September Lumber

September lumber satisfied its second upside PriceCount objective and is correcting lower. From here, IF the chart can sustain further strength we have the ‘liberation day’ gap to aim for followed by the third count to the 714 area which would be consistent with a challenge of the contract high. The low percentage fourth count – not shown here – comes in at 836.

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Daily Levels for July 16th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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CPI Tomorrow, Crude Oil, September Silver, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 15th, 2025

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CPI Tomorrow

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

CPI

cpi

Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is poised to set the tone for equity markets—with consensus expecting only a modest month-over-month uptick in headline inflation and core readings to remain steady, any upside surprise could trigger sharp moves in stock index futures.

Against the backdrop of trading volumes that have been running at their lowest levels in over two months, thinner liquidity may magnify those swings.

Crude Oil

That makes it an ideal moment to diversify your day-trading playbook: crude oil futures still react vigorously to geopolitical headlines and inventory reports, while 30-year Treasury bond futures offer a lower-correlation alternative when equity volumes ebb.

Please see reports scheduled for tomorrow as we have plenty of Fed speakers scheduled and stock index futures will listen.

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September Silver

September silver is accelerating to the topside where the first upside PriceCount objective has been satisfied. It would be normal to get a near term reaction form this level int eh form of a consolidation or corrective trade. If the chart can sustain further strength, the second count would project a possible run to the 42.03 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 15th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

 Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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CPI, Fed Speakers, Q2 Earnings, Levels and Reports; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures The Week of July 14th, 2025

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1249

  • The Week Ahead – CPI, Fed Speakers, Q2 Earnings & More!

  • Futures 102 – Short Trading techniques Videos

  • Hot Market of the Week – Spread Watch: KC Wheat VS Chicago Wheat

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Gold Swing Trading System

  • Trading Levels for Next Week

  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

cpi

MLB All-star Game, CPI (Consumer Price Index), Start of Q2 earnings reports (NFLX, Alcoa, Banks) and plenty of Fed speak next week!

Subdued Volatility, from the geopolitical front for the moment as tensions between Iran/Isreal have relaxed in the near term. Tariff impacts are creating volatility in commodity markets (industrial metals, Orange Juice, Coffee, Grains)

Inflation: The CPI report for June is expected on Tuesday, July 15. The consensus forecast predicts a 2.7% year-over-year increase in the headline CPI, and a 3% year-over-year increase in the core CPI (excluding food and energy),

Remember that current market drivers for Equities are hard data on Jobs, Inflation, Trump tweets and Geopolitics, clearly the Israel/Iran conflict jumps to the top of the list here. Watch for a correction in the Silver market as the RSI is reflecting 77, an overbought situation.

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of CPI, Fed Speak, U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals.

 Earnings Next Week: 

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. JPM, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, Citi, B of NY, StateStreet
  • Wed. PNC, B of A, J & J, Gold Sachs, M. Stanely, Alcoa
  • Thu. Pepsi, US Bank, GE, Netflix
  • Fri.   Amex, Schwab

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT) 

  • Mon.   Quiet
  • Tues.  8:15am CT Bowman, 11:45 Barr, 1:45pm  Collins, 5:45 pm Logan
  • Wed.  8:15am CT Hammack, 9 am Barr, 5:30 pm Willams
  • Thu.   9 am CT Kugler, 12:30 Cook, 5:30 pm Waller
  • Fri.     Quiet

Economic Data week: 

  • Mon.  Quiet
  • Tue.    CPI, Redbook
  • Wed. PPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, EIA Crude Stocks, Beige book
  • Thur. Jobless claims, Philly Fed, EIA NAT GAS Storage,
  • Fri. Bldg. Permits, Michigan Consumer Confidence
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Ask a Broker: How to use Bollinger Bands + parabolics!

Watch a series of short videos, where our VP, Ilan Levy-Mayer shares his personal preferences and opinions on different trading topics.

  • Ever wondered when to exit a trade? Take a look at what Ilan has to share on Bollinger Bands and a study called PARABOLICS
  • Some common uses you can make of support and resistance levels.
  • Filter out the noise with range bar charts
  • “Price Confirmation”

Watch Videos Now  

Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

Dec. 2025 Kansas City Wheat versus Dec. 2025 Chicago Wheat – read more about spreads HERE!

 

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

NEO DELTA LONG GOLD V1

Markets Traded:   Gold Futures GC

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $50,000

Developer Fee per contract: $250 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More

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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE

Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

The returns for trading systems listed throughout this website are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real-time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data (backadjusted).

Please read carefully the CFTC required disclaimer regarding hypothetical results below. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.

\IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Please read full disclaimer HERE.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for July 14th, 2025

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Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?

Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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50% Copper TARIFFS, FOMC Minutes, December Corn; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 9th, 2025

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50% Copper TARIFFS & FOMC Minutes Tomorrow

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

tariff

Week after week I have included Tariff news: Anything goes! On blog and newsletter

Mid-Day Trump comments spiked, in little time, Copper Futures prices by 17%, settling down to a positive 10+% gain.

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This shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise for those paying attention back in February, President Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 25, 2025, directing the secretary of commerce to initiate a Section 232 investigation into whether copper imports into the U.S. threaten to impair national security.

This investigation will assess the national security risks related to imported copper in all its forms, including raw mined copper, copper concentrates, refined copper, copper alloys, scrap copper, and derivative products.

Within 270 days the secretary of commerce will submit a report to the president with findings and recommendations on actions to mitigate any threats, including potential tariffs, export controls, or incentives to increase domestic production.

If you would like to know more about the High Grade Copper contracts please call your broker. Of note! Today the Micro High Grade Copper contract traded over 47 thousand contracts while the full size 25000lb contract traded over 99 thousand. The overnight margin coming into today was $9900 for the Full size and $605 for the micro, soon to increase.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  FOMC Minutes 1:00 p.m. CDT, EIA Crude oil stocks,

FED: Quiet

Earnings: Quiet

Tariff news: Anything goes!

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December Corn

The December (xmas) corn resumed its slide into a new low.

We have moved to the expanded April/May leg for projecting downside PriceCounts as the formation continues to develop.

The second counts projects a possible slide to $4.08 area.

And that is December Corn for you!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 8th, 2025

image 4

Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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