Bullet Points: Highlights and Announcements
By Mark O’Brien Senior Broker
Financials: Given Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements at last week’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, where he reiterated the Fed.’s commitment to halting inflation and that “some pain” will come to the U.S. economy as a result, U.S. and other global stock markets, while lower this week, have been measured and arguably not anxiety-filled. At least for the time being, traders seem to have factored in continued interest rate hikes by our central bank and other countries’ and slower, possibly even recessionary conditions. That was read into Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report that showed a deceleration in jobs creation (132,000 in August).
Next up: the closely watched Non-farm payrolls report this Friday, widely considered to be one of the most important measures of the U.S. economy. A survey of economists forecast an increase of 318,000 new jobs (median estimate).
Metals: Dec. gold traded through $1,700/oz this morning, marking its longest monthly losing streak in four years, and Dec. silver tumbled to $17.40 intraday – a more than two-year low – as traders expect rising interest rates will persist making Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar more attractive.
Lumber: Rising interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar have weighed on other commodity prices. Basis the Nov. futures contract, lumber prices have been slashed by more than half since their early-Feb. highs of ±$1,000/board foot, trading to $460/board foot intraday today – to its life-of-contract low. Credit weak demand as well, with a cooling housing market and falling new home construction.
Energy: Crude oil (Dec.) continued it’s steep sell-off this week – losing ±$10/barrel over the last three days – returning to near its mid-August/5-month lows near $86.00/barrel. The market seems dogged by softening demand with several major cities in China seeing new Covid restrictions, including the total lockdown of Chengdu with ±20 million people.
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09-02-2022
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