Cycle Detrending: Can you use Cycles to fortify your trading acumen?

Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

Cycle Detrending: Can you use Cycles to fortify your trading acumen?

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

I have accumulated a small library of important works in the study of futures trading over the years so instead of writing about the week ahead as I normally do on Mondays, I thought I would change pace ( I was enjoying a long weekend out of town ) so today, based on the work of Walt Bressert and The Foundation for the study of Cycles (Cycles.org) ,Jake Bernstein and others, I thought it would be important to briefly discuss another layer of technical analysis we all could use when trading becomes too myopic. The study of Cycles, simply put Cycle study is dedicated to the study of recurring patterns in the economy, markets, natural sciences and the Arts.  We are not looking to trade the big bottoms and tops that occur as the trend reverses, but the bottoms and tops of the shorter-term cycles occurring in the direction of TREND. One tool to identify the cycles within a trend is called “Centered Detrending” With “CD” you can visibly observe cycle bottoms and tops. Because this takes the mystery out of cycles you can look back over a considerable amount of time(History) and see the consistency and tradability of cycles. Most trading cycles in the futures markets tend to cluster between 18 and 22 bars. What we want to do is CD the chart and calculate a moving average the same length as the potential trading cycle. But instead of plotting the Moving Avg. (MA) from the last day it should be centered in the middle of the cycle; for instance if it is a 20 day MA, move it back 10 days from the most recent close. this will show you a linear representation of the cycles relative to price movement.

f5ca369c 24c4 4137 b4b2 cbaed97f242d

You are half way home now, since this will only show historical cycles it can’t be used for real-time trading. You now will need an Oscillator to overlay. To use an oscillator to identify cycle tops and bottoms look for three characteristics: (there are a number of oscillators on your trading platform, play around with a few)

  1. The oscillator turns when prices turn
  2. The oscillator does not “wiggle” much at cycle tops and bottoms
  3. The oscillator has amplitude moves that take it to the extremes of an allowable range as the cycles bottom and top..      I hope this gives you a different perspective to learn best how to trade a trend. My compliments to the decades of analysis put out there by Bressert, Bernstein , Edward Dewey Chief Economist for the Hoover admins Dept. of Commerce.

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

08-17-2023

25db9b1f 29a9 4a51 9f10 f43dd5f5c0be

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

06960e66 b550 47c7 85fe e65335e2ebf8

 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

The Week Ahead for Commodities + Trading Levels for August 15th 2023

Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

The Week Ahead

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General: 

 

As the duel between the United States and China continues, seemingly on several fronts, a new sign emerged the first half of the year: China’s imports to the U.S. accounted for the smallest percentage of goods arriving here in 20 years.  Just 13.3% of all imports to the U.S. came from China the first half of 2023.  Compare that to its peak of 21.6% for all of 2017 and its low point of 12.1% in 2013.  The downturn is not due to any list of stand-out products or industries, nor has any country or small number of countries jumped up to import a bigger share of anything.  Rather, slow-moving supply chain shifts across dozens of industries and nations are driving the trend.  When the dollar values of exports and imports are combined, Mexico is now America’s no. 1 trading partner, followed by Canada, pushing China to third place.

 

Last Thursday, the Labor Department reported the consumer-price index increased 0.2% in July, the same as in June. That is down sharply year-over-year looking at the 1.2% gain in June 2022.  If the downward trend continues – now over a year from its June 2022 peak reading of 9.1%, inflation is on a path to draw near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target by late 2023 or early 2024.

 

What could stand in the way of that trend?  Geopolitical events and weather could impact food and energy prices.

 

After Saudi Arabia and Russia announced reductions in their oil production last month, unleaded gas prices, which tend to lag behind crude oil prices, traded to 1-year highs on Friday (basis September) within less than two cents of $3.00 per gallon.

 

Further regarding Russia, last month it withdrew from a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea and has since attacked key port facilities in Odesa.  Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain suppliers including 13% of global corn exports and the 12% of wheat.

 

Add to all this, scientists watching the periodic climate pattern called El Niño are now anticipating it arriving this winter more likely as “moderate,” and possibly a “strong” event than how they assessed conditions in May.  Ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have warmed enough off the coast of South America to trigger an El Niño, meaning possibly a warmer, dryer winter here in the U.S. and higher temperatures globally. This can cause disruptions to crops in some of the world’s most important commodities sources.

 

Keltner Channels, Volume Charts, Algo Signals – Trade Set Up

  • Watch the 5 minute video below in which I share a trading set up I like, using volume charts, candle sticks, Keltner Channels and proprietary ALGOs for trading signals.

Volume charts, candle sticks, Keltner Channels and proprietary ALGOs for trading signals.

 

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

08-15-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

35be821d db18 4f8d a197 41e44f99854b

 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Weekly Newsletter: Learn a Trade Set Up + Futures Levels 8.14.2023

Cannon Futures Weekly Newsletter Issue # 1158

 

Join our private Facebook group for additional insight into trading and the futures markets!

In this issue:

  • Trading Resource of the Week – Keltner Channels, Volume Charts – Trade Set Up
  • Hot Market of the Week – September Dollar Index
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Platinum Swing Trading System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

  • Trading Resource of the Week – Keltner Channels, Volume Charts, Algo Signals – Trade Set Up

Watch the 5 minute video below which share a trading set up I like, using volume charts, candle sticks, Keltner Channels and proprietary ALGOs for trading signals.

Download a FREE demo of the SAME EXACT platform used in the demo here. Real time data.

8c163aa1 b068 4c37 a63d fec789b19b29
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
September Dollar Index stabilized its sharp break last months and has been recovering higher since. The chart is also activated upside PriceCount objectives, the first count projects a run to the 102.96 area, consistent with a challenge of the early July highs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
9193edbe d5f3 4724 a4ae cbf74ad3f87c
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
Platinum
SYSTEM TYPE
Swing
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$20,000
COST
USD 115 / monthly
cf6e5544 8246 4e7a bc98 dbba33acb47a
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Sign Up for a Free Personalized Consultation with a Broker from Cannon Trading Company
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
  • Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for August 14th, 2023
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
Yes
S
No
S

Weekly Levels

 

1c54b194 9049 4824 9506 be8beee41575

  • Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com 
5b7cbd0d 5db4 43d1 8b05 afaec9502833

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.

 

Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

CPI + Trading Levels for August 10, 2023

Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

CPI + Trading Levels for August 10th 2023

CPI tomorrow at 7:30 AM Central time. Market moving report.

Why Traders Care?

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment

Derived Via The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling;

Acro Consumer Price Index (CPI);

96da7b21 06f5 4ac4 a761 fedb16e3df70

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

08-10-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

8bd79560 206e 4013 8566 0c216b45fd7a

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

NFP – Non Farm Payrolls Tomorrow – Futures Trading on August 4th

Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

NFP, Non Farm payrolls or Unemployment numbers will be released tomorrow at 7:30 AM central. This is currently he biggest report as fed policy depends quite a bit on the labor market.

Be aware of the report, what market is expecting and how the market reacts.

I normally like to be flat 2 minutes before and stay that way for few minutes after until the “smoke clears” but every trader is different.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release) Measures Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;

Usual Effect ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends; Next Release Sep 1, 2023

Notes: This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;

Why Traders Care? Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Also Called Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change

 

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

08-04-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

 

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

3e5b82f1 e305 4814 b76c 53811b346cc8

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Weekly Newsletter: Price Confirmation Filters out “bad trades”? + Levels for July 31st

Cannon Futures Weekly Newsletter Issue # 1156

 

Join our private Facebook group for additional insight into trading and the futures markets!

Have a safe Memorial Day Weekend. Trading Schedule HERE

In this issue:

  • Trading Resource of the Week – Filter Noise with Price Confirmation
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – ZB Day Trading System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

  • Trading Resource of the Week – Entering futures using stop orders as “price confirmation”

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP
Watch video below on how you can possibly filter out some of the losing trades by using STOP orders as a way to ENTER trades ( rather than the typical stop loss use).
Entering Futures Using Stop Orders as "Price Confirmation"
Try a FREE demo of the platform used to show the charts in this educational article. The platform is FREE and has charts, news, DOM, T&S, Alerts, advanced order entry, options and MUCH MORE!
15cae31c 392e 41d2 b558 c3f3e290d865
3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
SYSTEM TYPE
Intraday
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$10,000
COST
USD 65 / monthly
f985b6cd 7fe7 4d35 b85a f1ff773c8f9a
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Sign Up for a Free Personalized Consultation with a Broker from Cannon Trading Company
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
  • Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for July 31st, 2022
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
Yes
S
No
S

Weekly Levels

ee567232 f3de 4942 88ba 529bf64b994b

 

  • Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.

 

Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Quick Videos on Trading Techniques + Futures Trading Levels for July 28th 2023

Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

Trading Videos

Watch a series of short videos, where our VP, Ilan Levy-Mayer shares his personal preferences and opinions on different trading topics.
  • Ever wondered when to exit a trade? Take a look at what Ilan has to share on Bollinger Bands and a study called PARABOLICS
  • Some common uses you can make of support and resistance levels.
  • Filter out the noise with range bar charts
  • “Price Confirmation”

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

07-28-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

 

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

97bf6f13 e92f 470f a4f1 ec587f3a27ed

 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Customized Trading Signals + Futures Trading Levels for July 26th 2023

Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

Live Customized Trading Signals on your Charts

Try our in-house created family of technical studies

 

 

Free 3-week trial includes video tutorial and 23-page PDF e-book, explaining the studies’ approach and how to apply them to your trading.

 

Approach focuses on counter-trend and trend following price action and trade management.

 

Some examples for educational purposes below in the screen shot

 

Sign up for a Free Trial of our in-house signals HERE

a5688a7b 2fc5 4123 9fc0 44968f5b0ef0

Plan your trade and trade your plan.

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

for 07-26-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

689a1667 7011 434a 866a 3ac982a1e35c

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Trading Levels for July 20th – Range Bar Charts for Day Trading

Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

Watch the video below for ideas if using VOLUME and/or RANGE bar charts while day trading can help you filter out the noise and get signals FASTER when volume and price action are active?
thumbnail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2Fid3fKJIj 2k%2Fhqdefault

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan.

 

41ec770a 8e29 4c21 8bc4 91352f8d6af7

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

for 07-20-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

317f28a1 601b 4e8a a913 572090e4561e

 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Trading Futures Options vs. Trading Commodity Futures

Pros and Cons, Risk vs. Reward, and Techniques for Trading Options on Futures

Read more about trading futures here

Trading futures options and commodity futures are both popular strategies in the financial markets. While they share some similarities, there are distinct differences in their structure, characteristics, and potential benefits and risks. In this article, we will explore the pros and cons of trading futures options compared to trading commodity futures, and discuss the risk versus reward dynamics of these approaches. Additionally, we will delve into various techniques used for trading options on futures.

Pros and Cons of Trading Futures Options: Trading futures options offers several advantages. One key benefit is the leverage and potential for higher returns. Options allow traders to control a larger position in the underlying futures contract with a relatively smaller investment. This amplifies the profit potential when the market moves favorably. Additionally, options provide traders with the flexibility to design strategies for different market conditions, including bullish, bearish, and neutral scenarios.

Another advantage of trading futures options is the limited risk involved. Unlike futures contracts, purchased options have a predefined maximum loss, which is limited to the premium paid. This can provide a sense of security for traders, as they know their maximum potential loss upfront. Additionally, options can be used as a hedging tool to protect against adverse price movements in the underlying futures contract.

However, trading futures options also has its drawbacks. Options have an expiration date, which means traders must be mindful of time decay. As the option approaches its expiration, its value may erode rapidly, even if the underlying futures price remains relatively stable. This time decay factor can lead to losses for option buyers if the market does not move in the anticipated direction within the desired timeframe.

Furthermore, liquidity can be a concern when trading futures options. Compared to commodity futures, options markets may have lower liquidity, resulting in wider bid-ask spreads. This can impact the ease of executing trades and may lead to slippage. Traders should consider the liquidity of options on the futures they are interested in before initiating positions.

Risk vs. Reward Dynamics: Trading futures options involves a trade-off between risk and reward. On the risk side, the maximum loss for an options buyer is limited to the premium paid. However, if the market moves against the anticipated direction, the loss can be substantial relative to the premium. This risk can be mitigated by employing risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders or position sizing based on a predetermined percentage of the trading capital.

On the reward side, trading futures options can offer significant profit potential. When the market moves favorably, options traders can benefit from leverage and achieve higher returns compared to the premium invested. This potential upside can attract traders seeking enhanced profit opportunities. However, it’s important to note that trading futures options requires skillful market analysis and timing to capture these gains.

Techniques for Trading Options on Futures: Several techniques are commonly used when trading options on futures. These include:

  1. Long Call or Put: This is a directional strategy where traders buy call options if they expect an upward price movement or put options if they anticipate a downward price movement in the underlying futures contract.
  2. Covered Call or Put: In this strategy, traders simultaneously own the underlying futures contract and sell a call or put option against it. This technique generates income from the premium received, but limits the potential upside.
  3. Spread Strategies: These involve the simultaneous purchase and sale of multiple options contracts with different strike prices or expiration dates. Examples include vertical spreads (bull call spread, bear put spread), horizontal spreads (calendar spread), and diagonal spreads.
  4. Long Straddle and Strangle: These strategies involve buying both a call and a put option (straddle) or buying out-of-the-money call and put options (strangle) with the expectation of significant price volatility. They can profit from large price swings regardless of the market direction.
  5. Long Butterfly and Condor: These strategies involve combining multiple call and put options to create a position with limited risk and limited profit potential. They are suitable when the trader expects the underlying futures price to remain within a specific range.

It’s important for options traders to understand the characteristics, potential risks, and rewards associated with each strategy. Thorough analysis and consideration of market conditions are crucial for successful options trading.

Trading futures options and commodity futures each have their own advantages and disadvantages. Buying futures options offers leverage, flexibility, and limited risk, but also involves time decay and potential liquidity concerns. It requires careful analysis, risk management, and knowledge of various options trading techniques. On the other hand, trading commodity futures provides direct exposure to the underlying asset, potentially greater liquidity, and no time decay. Traders should carefully assess their risk tolerance, market outlook, and trading goals to determine the most suitable approach for their investment objectives.

Ready to start trading futures? Call 1(800)454-9572 and speak to one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and start your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

DisclaimerTrading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.