At A Glance Levels

Instrument	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2
Gold (GC) — June (#GC)	4613.33	4636.47	4681.13	4704.27	4748.93
Silver (SI) — July. (#SI)	80.42	82.26	85.71	87.56	91.01
Crude Oil (CL) — June. (#CL)	98.29	100.14	101.25	103.10	104.21
June Bonds (ZB) — June. (#ZB)	111 23/32	111 30/32	112 12/32	112 19/32	113 1/32

Copper Continues Advance on Tariff Concerns

By

Tom Pawlicki of StoneX market Intelligence

copper

US copper futures made a new all-time high on Tuesday, with support continuing to come from flows of metal to CME warehouses, driven by potential new US tariff policies.

CME warehouse inventories of copper reached a record high yesterday at 624,000 MT. Inventories had reached a prior peak on March 2 at 601,700 just after the February 20 tariff ruling by the US Supreme Court which deemed tariffs under the IEEPA provision to be illegal. A plateau in CME inventories followed for seven weeks until a new high was made on April 22.

The current surge in copper inventories began in January 2025 when they were around 95,000 MT. The expectation that new tariffs would be applied by newly inaugurated President Trump had driven flows toward US-based warehouses in order for copper consumers to be able to buy feedstock without tariffs.

Many of those supplies were drawn from warehouses in China or from the LME, but inventories in those places have been rising as well starting this year.

News regarding tariffs on copper has been difficult to track because developments have changed frequently. After inauguration day, the president issued an Executive Order to conduct a study on the national security implications around copper imports. The study was due by November 22, 2025, but was preempted on July 8, 2025, when the president announced a 50% tariff on all copper imports starting on August 1st.

Prices rallied 66c/lb that day on July 8, or more than 13%, but didn’t advance much more after that. The president later moved to exclude refined copper from the tariffs on July 30th, and that forced prices to drop $1.27/lb within two days, or 22.5%. The spread between the CME-LME had surged and later collapsed based on the two announcements.

The Supreme Court decision striking down the IEEPA tariffs did not close the case on tariffs, which are still subject to implementation under Section 232. Those are considered legal if a Department of Commerce investigation finds that those imports threaten to impair U.S. national security.

A “simplification” of the tariff policy regarding copper was made five weeks ago on April 6, which implements a 50% tariff on articles made almost entirely with copper such as coils, wire and sheets. There are four additional classifications and tariff levels for derivative articles depending on how much copper they contain and whether the copper was made in the US, and they tariff the full value of the product rather than just the copper portion.

Metal-intensive industrial equipment and electrical grid equipment will pay 15% of the product’s value through 2027, when a new set of tariffs on refined copper may be implemented. A decision on those tariffs is expected to be made in July 2026.

With uncertainty about future tariffs still dominant, markets continue to draw the metal to CME warehouses in an attempt to avoid any future levies. That could keep prices supported on a long-term basis, and CFTC data on commitments of traders shows that happening.

There was some liquidation by the managed money group from January to March surrounding the Supreme Court decision, but traders have been moving back into the long side of copper futures since late-March. The net long has risen 28,200 contracts since then or an increase of about 80%.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.

The recommendations contained in this chart are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

July/November (N-X) soybean spread

The “widowmaker” in agricultural futures often refers to the high-risk, volatile July/November (N-X) soybean spread. This spread pits the old-crop supply (July) against new-crop supply (November), reacting violently to weather reports, planting acreage, and inventory data, which can lead to significant losses if the market reversals occur.

The July – Nov Bean Spread resumed its break into a new low for the move. The chart is testing support against the lows and approaching the third downside PriceCount objective to the 4 cent area.

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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