What Futures Traders Should Watch This Week
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
WASDE, CPI, PPI, a few Fed speakers and light earnings.
There is an oft heard adage this time of year. “Sell in May and go Away”
This reference to stocks maybe out dated to avoid historically lower returns and volatility during the summer, returning in November. While based on long-term data (1945–2026) showing weaker performance in the May–October period, it is considered outdated as stocks often still rise during these months. In the age of AI-driven markets and global investing, this strategy is less relevant. For instance, in the last decade, the May–October period has seen a more robust 7% rise.
Risks of Timing: Investors who sell in May risk missing out on significant gains, as markets have recorded positive summer returns in 38 of the last 50 years.
Under the Bull or Bear category.
We can trade either side of the market and prepare for volatility. On Monday, reach out to your broker for trading ideas. Bull or Bear, you really shouldn’t care.
Tuesday’s WASDE (World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates) report will now be coming more impactful to pricing in the commodity markets than they have previously been during the recent seasonal cycles.
South American crops should largely be in the bins and round 1 for North American crops, for the most part, are in the ground with exceptions, I would also suggest, the timing of this report coincides with “weather market” volatility. The May 12 WASDE is expected to be the first official look at the 2026/27 crop year, and the main focus is likely to be corn, soybeans, and wheat.
According to www.agriculture.com as of May 3rd (the most recent data)
Corn and soybean planting is ahead of the five-year average, with 38% of corn and 33% of soybeans planted.
Winter wheat is progressing well, with 49% headed, but crop conditions remain weaker than last year.
Spring wheat planting lags slightly behind the five-year average, while oat planting is on track with historical trends.
For a change of pace
Key Differences between CPI and PPI to Monitor
- PPI (Producer Perspective): Measures selling prices received by producers (wholesale), which acts as a short-term precursor to CPI. It often highlights inflationary pressures on the supply side.
- CPI (Consumer Perspective): Measures prices paid by consumers (retail). It includes imports and sales taxes, unlike the PPI
Consensus Forecasts (Mid-2026) (per TradingEconomics)
- April 2026 CPI: Forecasts suggest a +0.7% m/m surge in headline, with core rising to 2.7% y/y.
- March 2026 Data: As of the latest official report, YoY CPI was 3.3% and PPI was 4.0%.
- 2026 Forecasts: Some projections for December 2026 have been raised to 3.0% y/y for headline CPI and 2.6% y/y for core.
Is the smoke clearing in the Middle East and the markets have a renewed sense of confidence?
The energy and metals are swirling in the uncertainty of a lack of resolution in the attempted unwinding of the Iranian nuclear program.
Don’t let your guard down just yet, the fog continues, tune into the Sunday evening markets to witness reactions to the weekend news streams, manufactured or true.
Of note next week with WASDE looming Tuesday. a few key economic data points to watch CPI is the biggest. Earnings this week continues, albeit at a very light 7th inning, Plan your trade and trade your plan!
Earnings Next Week:
· Mon. Constellation Energy
· Tue. Zebra Technologies, Masimo
· Wed. Tencent
· Thu. Applied Materials, Ross Stores
· Fri. Quiet
FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)
· Mon. Quiet
· Tues. 2:15 am Williams, 12:00 Goolsbee,
· Wed. 10:30am Collins 12:15 pm Kashkari, 6:00 pm Logan
· Thu. 12:00 Hammack, 4:45 Williams, 6:00 pm Barr
· Fri. quiet
Econ Data:
· Mon. Existing HomeSales,
· Tue. ADP Weekly, CPI, Redbook, WASDE, API Crude Stock Change
· Wed. PPI, EIA Crude stocks
· Thu. Initial Jobless claims, Retail Sales, Business inventories Nat Gas Stocks, consumer credit change
· Fri. NY Empire State Mfg. Index, NOPA Crush Report, Baker Hughs Oil Rig Count |
