What you need to know before trading futures tomorrow – October 6th 2023
by Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP
NFP is tomorrow! Non Farm Payrolls also known as employment numbers. Big report, This is a market moving event and we expect high volatility, right before, during and right after.
Crude Oil and energies trading at extreme volatility
Take a look at the 1 minute chart of the last NFP report from Sept. 1st below as well as a 15 min chart of the rest of the same session. Notice the ES (mini SP500) had a 22 point move from high to low in 45 seconds!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
What you need to know for the last two trading days of the week
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
General:
As yesterday’s price action in stock index and interest rate futures demonstrated, there are times when good data is bad news. Yesterday, after three consecutive months of falling numbers, the Labor Department reported that there were 9.6 million job openings in the month of August in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, commonly referred to by its acronym: JOLTS.
Job openings have been slowly declining for the last 16-17 months from their April ’22 highs near 12 million – likely to the nod of approval by the Federal Reserve as it has raised rates in part to reduce labor demand in its efforts to cool the economy. A larger-than-expected increase like August’s numbers helps make the prospect of further interest rate hikes less likely to be taken off the table, despite the Fed’s pause at the last meeting.
The JOLTS rebound also increases the scrutiny this Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers will receive from traders. Already, the E-mini S&P 500 has slipped ±400 points – a $20,000 per contract move – since its late-July push up to 4685, including yesterday’s 1.4% hit.
Energy:
Last Wednesday, during the early hours of the Thursday session – so, technically just four trading sessions ago – November crude oil traded briefly over $95 per barrel. This after a ±$3.50 per barrel advance above $94.00 per barrel during Wednesday’s session. As of this typing, crude oil is in the throes of a ± $5.00 / 5.6% correction and within pennies of trading to $84 per barrel: an $11,000 per contract move. Along side it, November heating oil corrected ±32 cents per gallon, a ±$13,400 per contract move.
Helping today’s sell-off was yesterday’s American Petroleum Institute report showing stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub – where West Texas oil futures deliveries are processed – had increased for the first time in eight weeks. Likely because no surprises accompanied the announcement, crude took the news in stride that Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that the voluntary production cuts currently in place will remain until the end of the year as planned, despite recent higher prices.
Softs:
New all-time highs in orange juice futures just keep coming. Last month, November orange juice futures gained another ±37 cent per pound – a ±$2,550 per contract move – to trade over $3.50 per pound. Ongoing disease called citrus greening has damaged upwards of 75% of Florida’s orange crop.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Tomorrow traders need to pay attention to multiple reports, fed members speaking and more!
Should be a busy day across the board, make sure to know which reports are coming and what time, scroll down to see reports and times!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Labor, Labor, Labor Critical to the outlook for monetary policy is how the cooling in the labor market is shaping up or rather cooling down. This week is a heavy data week about the U.S. Labor market. remaining days with a Labor data set to be released. First, Tuesday morning at 9:00a.m. Central time, the August J.O.L.T.S Job Openings and Labor Turnover report will be released. Conditions are expected to reflect low unemployment rates and a moderate number of job openings.
Wednesday @ 7:15 CDT the ADP National Employment report, expectations here are for private payrolls to expand but at a slower pace than in previous reports. Thursday the Challenger report will be released @ 6:30 CDT . layoffs are expected here but could actually show hiring plans consistent with strong consumer spending expectations over the holiday shopping season. Also, on Thursday ,Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 30 at 7:30 CDT will probably remain in line with recent weeks. Finally, the Big one on Friday morning @ 7:30 am CDT Non Farm Payrolls. ..an increase of 160,000 jobs are expected. From Econoday.com they say this ” Historically, the September employment numbers strongly tend to come in below forecast, but also strongly tend to subsequently see an upward revision. Should the September change in nonfarm payrolls be a disappointment, it would be well to wait for the next month’s report before concluding that the labor market is softening more than previously thought.”
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
All traders will begin with a virtual account of $100,000.00 Your goal: increase the balance to as much as possible by the conclusion of the competition.
Top three traders with the highest P&L balance at the end will get a cash prize.
One winner will be chosen from the remaining participants to receive a cash prize.
The prizes to the winners shall be awarded in the form of a check (or any other form as reasonably determined by StoneX) and sent to the winner within ten business days of receiving the required tax documentation.
Trading Resource of the Week – Trading Commodity Seasonal Patterns
When we talk about seasonal patterns in futures, we’re referring to certain conditions and events that repeat annually. Perhaps the most obvious of these is the annual cycle of weather from warm to cold and back to warm. However, the calendar also marks the annual passing of important events, such as the due date for U.S. income taxes every April 15th. Enormous supplies of grain at harvest dwindle throughout the year. Demand for heating oil typically rises as cold weather approaches but subsides as inventory is filled. Monetary liquidity may decline as taxes are paid but rise as the Federal Reserve recirculates funds. Such annual events create yearly cycles in supply and demand.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December wheat–corn spread is threatening to negate and break down the September key reversal trade that looks to have failed to stabilize the break. At this point, new sustained lows would project a possible run to the third downside PriceCount objective to the 73 cent area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Nasdaq 100 ( NQ and MNQ) sitting on decision levels in my opinion.
A break below 14720 can trigger a visit to the 14220 area. A close above 14930 can open the door for an oversold rally towards the 15300 area.
See daily chart below.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
What you need to know for the last two trading days of the month
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
General:
Thanks in large part to higher yield opportunities, foreign purchases of dollars to buy U.S. treasuries have pushed the U.S. Dollar Index (basis Dec.) to a 10-month high today – trading to an intraday high of 106.24 – a climb of over $7,000 per contract since mid-July. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at their September meeting, but chairman Powell reiterated the Central Bank’s goal of bringing inflation down to its 2% target, so further rate hikes were still on the table and “higher for longer,” remained the clarion call.
Currencies:
Conversely, the Euro hit 6-month lows today, down to 1.0538 intraday, marking a ±$9,500 per contract move in a little over two months. The Japanese yen is threatening its key 150 level, where Japanese officials are seen as potentially intervening to shore up the currency (divide the futures price by 1 to find the conversion rate).
Metals:
New highs in the dollar have also translated to new lows in precious metals, particularly gold, which lost ±$29 per ounce today (basis Dec.) and broke through $1,900 per ounce, approaching early-February lows near $1883. This is a ±$225 per ounce decline (±$22,500 per contract) from its May 4 highs.
Energies:
Despite China’s tenuous economy – a key measure of demand for crude oil globally – the supply side of the ledger has been the driving force behind rising energy prices. Production cuts made by OPEC+ and continuing through year’s end have contributed to a plunge in storage levels in Europe and the U.S. to multi-month lows. Today the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory draw of 2.2 million barrels for the week to September 22, spurring a ±$3.50 per barrel advance above $94.00 per barrel intraday (basis Nov.) Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute estimated that stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub – where West Texas oil futures deliveries are processed – had slipped to below 22 million barrels, which is on the brink of the minimum operating level for that important terminal. The crude oil tanks around Cushing have approximately 91 million barrels of storage capacity.
Summary:
Futures traders remember the practical rule of thumb to keep an eye on the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar in the global market will increase the price of commodities relative to foreign currencies. The higher price of commodities in foreign currency will work to lower demand and dollar-priced commodities. For a first-rate overview, check out the piece by Hannah Baldwin with the CME Group and contributed to Reuters: “How a strong dollar affects international currencies & commodities.”
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Understanding psychological biases at work that can affect your trading plan
List generated by By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
Technical analysis is not a flawless science, and it is susceptible to various biases that can impact trading decisions and performance. Recognizing and addressing these biases is essential for becoming a more disciplined and successful trader.
Here are some common technical analysis biases and strategies to avoid or overcome them:
Confirmation Bias:
Bias: This occurs when traders only seek or give importance to information that confirms their existing beliefs or positions.
Avoidance Strategy: Actively seek out information and technical signals that might contradict your initial analysis. Be open to changing your view based on objective data rather than personal bias.
Overfitting Bias:
Bias: Overfitting happens when traders use too many technical indicators, parameters, or complex strategies to fit historical data perfectly, but these strategies may not perform well in future markets.
Avoidance Strategy: Keep your technical analysis simple and use a limited number of well-established indicators and patterns. Focus on robust strategies that have demonstrated reliability over time.
Recency Bias:
Bias: Traders tend to give more importance to recent price movements and patterns, assuming they will continue, while ignoring longer-term trends or historical context.
Avoidance Strategy: Consider a longer time horizon and look at historical price data to gain perspective. Avoid making impulsive decisions based solely on recent price action.
Anchoring Bias:
Bias: This bias occurs when traders fixate on a specific price level or a reference point, often the entry price, and refuse to adjust their positions or exit strategies accordingly.
Avoidance Strategy: Regularly reassess your positions and set stop-loss and take-profit levels based on current market conditions rather than anchoring to an arbitrary point.
Availability Bias:
Bias: Traders might rely too heavily on readily available information or recent news, leading to biased analysis and decision-making.
Avoidance Strategy: Seek a variety of information sources and avoid making hasty decisions based solely on the latest news. Maintain a broader perspective on market fundamentals.
Gambler’s Fallacy:
Bias: Traders may believe that past events, like a series of losses, increase the likelihood of future events, such as a win, even though markets are not governed by probability in the same way as games of chance.
Avoidance Strategy: Trade based on sound technical and fundamental analysis rather than expecting a change in luck. Each trade should be evaluated independently.
Emotional Bias:
Bias: Emotional responses, such as fear and greed, can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions.
Avoidance Strategy: Develop a trading plan with predefined entry and exit points, risk tolerance, and position sizing. Stick to your plan and avoid letting emotions drive your actions.
Hindsight Bias:
Bias: After a trade has concluded, traders may believe they knew the outcome all along, leading to overconfidence in their abilities.
Avoidance Strategy: Keep a trading journal to record your analysis, decisions, and outcomes. This will help you learn from your experiences and avoid hindsight bias.
Self-Attribution Bias:
Bias: Traders may attribute successful trades to their skill and unsuccessful trades to external factors or bad luck.
Avoidance Strategy: Be honest with yourself about your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. Analyze both winning and losing trades to identify areas for improvement.
Anxiety Bias:
Bias: Anxiety can lead to hesitation or overtrading, causing traders to miss opportunities or make impulsive decisions.
Avoidance Strategy: Implement stress-reduction techniques, maintain discipline, and stick to a well-defined trading plan to mitigate anxiety-related biases.
Being aware of these biases is the first step toward becoming a more rational and disciplined trader. It’s also beneficial to continuously educate yourself, practice risk management, and seek feedback from mentors or peers to improve your trading skills and reduce the impact of these biases on your performance.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
While the economic data calendar is well-populated in the September 25 week, nothing will distract from the looming federal shutdown if Congress fails to fund the government by September 30. A failure to pass a spending package would mean adding uncertainty to the economic outlook. Many businesses including small ones depend on government contracts; and without new contracts signed, a round of layoffs could be triggered at a time when skilled workers are difficult to replace. An extended shutdown would disrupt government services including the routine reporting of economic data not to mention inconvenience and perhaps damage businesses and households.
For housing reports, the ongoing surge in mortgage rates makes data from July and August relatively out of date. September data from both home builders and mortgage bankers point to a pullback as consumers reconsider buying while prices remain elevated and mortgage rates at 22-year highs. For September to date, the 30-year fixed rate has averaged 7.16 percent, the highest since 7.16 percent in July 2001. If the housing market is in a downturn due to high rates and elevated prices, the lack of supply of homes has helped maintain competition for available units. Determined homebuyers do have some negotiating power – more for new construction than existing units. Those buying in the current market may be doing so with the expectation that mortgage rates will come down again and allow them to refinance to a more affordable rate.
On Friday, the report on personal income and spending at 8:30 ET will include the PCE deflator for August. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. It is likely to mirror the moves in the August CPI with energy costs boosting the overall index a bit, but with signs of further moderation in prices outside of food and energy.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
All traders will begin with a virtual account of $100,000.00 Your goal: increase the balance to as much as possible by the conclusion of the competition.
Top three traders with the highest P&L balance at the end will get a cash prize.
One winner will be chosen from the remaining participants to receive a cash prize.
The prizes to the winners shall be awarded in the form of a check (or any other form as reasonably determined by StoneX) and sent to the winner within ten business days of receiving the required tax documentation.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December Gold Futures Completed its first downside PriceCount objective last months before developing a sideways range trade. At this point, if the chart can break down with new sustained lows, the second count would project a possible run to the 1883 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
