Mini SP 500 futures are approaching an important support levels on the daily chart as seen below.
4325-4350 zone.
The big question is “Will support hold or will price break through towards the next levels?”
Mini S&P ES Daily Chart / #ES
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
All traders will begin with a virtual account of $100,000.00 Your goal: increase the balance to as much as possible by the conclusion of the competition.
Top three traders with the highest P&L balance at the end will get a cash prize.
One winner will be chosen from the remaining participants to receive a cash prize.
The prizes to the winners shall be awarded in the form of a check (or any other form as reasonably determined by StoneX) and sent to the winner within ten business days of receiving the required tax documentation.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
FOMC tomorrow and the markets are expecting NO CHANGE in rates tomorrow, however, traders will pay close attention in an attempt to predict future hikes the rest of 2023.
The following are suggestions on trading during FOMC days:
· Reduce trading size
· Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
· Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 4425.00 with a stop at 4419.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 4419.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example ( consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).
· Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
· Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
· Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
· Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
1st of the final 3 Fed meetings this year happens this week.
The 1st upcoming meeting on Wednesday the 20th and the final Fed meeting December 13th will also include as a component “Projection Materials” or “Summary of Economic Projections”. The Summary of economic projections should give us a better view of what the voting Fed members are seeing as well. They represent more data driven insights than merely the commentary that follows the rate decisions.
Again, the language of Wednesday’s commentary will be more heavily based on data dependency as investors look for language alluding to the end of the rate increase cycle.
The Oct31/Nov 1 Fed (this is the 2nd of 3 remaining this Year) meeting will not include this data but will still include Fed Chair Powell’s commentary.
Why focus on fed meetings? There is Clear correlation between expectations of interest rate changes and Equity Market prices. An overly simplistic description: Interest rates go higher, equity prices go lower and the correlative inverse should also follow that when interest rates go lower, equity prices go higher.
CME Fedwatch Tool is reflecting a 99% probability of no rate change this meeting, maintaining the 5.25-5.50 current borrowing rate with a 1 % chance of a raise in rates.
Earnings
Fedex (FDX) headlines a relatively light earnings calendar this week, with the logistics giant slated to disclose its fiscal first-quarter results after Wednesday’s close. Analysts, on average, expect the company to report earnings of $3.73 per share, up 8.4% year-over-year (YoY), on revenue of $21.8 billion (-7.6% YoY).
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Join our private Facebook group for additional insight into trading and the futures markets!
In this issue:
Trading Updates: Rollover notice
Trading Resource of the Week – Tight Stops or Wide Stops?
Hot Market of the Week – November Unleaded Gasoline
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – ZB (bonds) Day Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices – December is FRONT MONTH
Stock index futures, currency futures and most other commodities front month is now December.
September stock index expired this Friday morning and currencies expire ( delivery) this Monday.
The month code for December is ‘Z.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
Trading Resource of the Week – Tight Stops or Wide Stops?
Entry Signals Are Very Important But Just As Important If Not More Is Trade Management.
By: Ilan Levy-Mayer, Cannon Trading Commodities Broker & VP
This article was published on FinanceMagnates.com back a couple years ago but is definitely a timeless article.
Today I decided to touch more on an educational feature rather than provide a certain market outlook. Many of my clients and blog readers know that when it comes to short term trading I am a fan of adjusting your trading technique/ game plan according to your assessment of the type of trading day that is developing in front of you.
Many new and advanced traders spend HOURS on looking for entry signals. Back testing historical data, creating algorithms to use and much more. I know. I am one of these traders.
Trade management consists of many factors. Some are psychological and some are more mathematical and many are in between. Some of the basic elements of trade management before even entering the trade are: What will my stop loss be**? will i use a stop loss**? What will my target be? will I use a target or just trail the trade if it goes my way?
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
November unleaded gasoline The rally in Nov unleaded completed second upside PriceCount objective and developed a sideways/ rangebound trading action. If the market can breakout to the upside , it can project a run to the 3rd objective at 2.77 level
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
What you need to know before trading futures on Sept. 15th
by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker:
For those of you trading stock index futures and options, remember that tomorrow is Last Trading Day for the September stock index futures contracts and their quarterly options. At 8:30 A.M., Central Time, the September contracts will stop trading and the CME will post a settlement price which will serve to offset any open September futures positions. It will also determine the status of the contracts’ options – whether they’re in or out of the money. Note that this does not apply to Friday Week-3 options tied to the December futures contracts. Those expire at their usual afternoon time.
Tomorrow is nicknamed quadruple witching which refers to the simultaneous expiration of not only stock index futures and options, but also stock options and single-stock futures, which actually ceased trading in 2020 – and was never a much of asset class in the U.S. since their arrival in 2002.
The new front month for the major stock index futures contracts is now December.
For currency futures traders, Monday is an even more important date on the calendar. It’s also Last Trading Day for these futures contracts, however these contracts are true deliverables. Instead of receiving a settlement price with which your open positions will be offset, your open long or short positions will be exchanged for actual cash-based positions in the type of currency your position represents. For example, if you hold a single September British Pound futures contract through Last Trading Day, you will be assigned a short cash position of futures contract’s value of 62,500£, the current U.S. dollar value of which is ±$77,500.
The long and short of it (pun intended), keep a very close eye on the calendar and steer well clear of becoming contractually obligated to deliver or take delivery of a futures contract’s underlying asset.
Volume in the September contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration Friday, September 15th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any September futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, Sept. 15th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.
Monday, September 18th is Last Trading Day for September currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all September futures contracts by Friday, September 15th and to start trading the December futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.
The month code for December is ‘Z.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
Watch the video below on how to rollover your market depth and charts!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Volume in the September contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration Friday, September 15th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any September futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, Sept. 15th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.
Monday, September 18th is Last Trading Day for September currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all September futures contracts by Friday, September 15th and to start trading the December futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.
The month code for December is ‘Z.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
Watch the video below on how to rollover your market depth and charts!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Week Ahead: Will CPI alter your trading strategy?
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
On the earnings front two additional AI equity plays report this week, both after their respective close. Oracle today is expecting a $1.14 per share increase (10.7% YoY) and Adobe on Thursday. Wallstreet analysts are expecting ADBE to report +3.98 per share (+17.0% YoY) These two earning factors could create directional change in the indices on the days following the releases. The Government reports being released this week could alter the course of the Fed’s short term interest rate decision making come September 20th.
The Fed has publicly stated in recent interviews and statements that the current string of rate increases used to assist in curbing inflation may be drawing to a close however, they will wait and see what the upcoming inflation numbers reveal. If the next two CPI reports show inflation running hot, especially in the service and shelter categories that the Fed is watching closely, then the chance of a November hike could increase.
The Fed Funds Futures (ZQU23) Market is assigning a 93 % probability that the Fed will not raise during the Sep 20 meeting. This viewpoint could change significantly after several important reports will be released this week. Circle your calendars for Wednesday the 13th @ 7:30 A.M. CDT for CP and Thursday the 14th @7:30 A.M. CDT for 3 numbers: PPI final, Retail sales and Jobless claims. Finally on Friday @8:15 A.M. CDT for Industrial Production.
Expectations for CPI from Econoday.com are: Core prices in August are expected to hold steady and modest at a monthly increase of 0.2 percent to match July’s as-expected 0.2 percent increase. Yet overall prices, reflecting food and energy, are expected to rise 0.6 percent after July’s 0.2 percent increase which was also as expected. Annual rates, which in July were 3.2 percent overall and 4.7 percent for the core, are expected at 3.6 and 4.4 percent respectively.
What is CPI (Consumer Price Index)? is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI measures inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses.
Scope: Urban Consumers How the data is obtained: Survey of Business, Survey of Households. Sample sizes : CPI Survey collects about 94,000 prices and 8,000 rental housing unit quotes each month.
Volume in the September contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration Friday, September 15th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any September futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, Sept. 15th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.
Monday, September 18th is Last Trading Day for September currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all September futures contracts by Friday, September 15th and to start trading the December futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.
The month code for December is ‘Z.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
Watch the video below on how to rollover your market depth and charts!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
I personally start trading December this Monday when the volume on December is higher than the September.
Volume in the September contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration next Friday, September 15th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any September futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, Sept. 15th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.
Monday, September 18th is Last Trading Day for September currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all September futures contracts by Friday, September 15th and to start trading the December futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.
The month code for December is ‘Z.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
Trading Resource of the Week – : Simulated Trading Contest with Real Cash Prizes!!
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December soybean oil slowed its rally last months against the fall high and corrected. Now, the chart has recovered and is poised for another challenge of the fall and July highs. If we can break out to the upside with new sustained highs, we have a first upside PriceCount projection to the 68.51 area to aim for.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
