* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Short-Term Options in Commodities: Potential Benefits and Applications Part 2
By Adila McHich CMEGroup.com
Short-terms options are flexible tools for tactical trading strategies to mitigate specific event risks or make a directional bet on price movement in the short term. The trading volume of these types of options in commodities has grown tremendously in recent years because they appeal to different types of traders regardless of their time horizon or thesis. This article, which is Part 2 of a two-part series explains the macro and idiosyncratic (commodity-specific) market events and their applications using short-term options in commodities.
Commodity prices are determined based on a confluence of macro and idiosyncratic factors. As such, commodity price fluctuations are largely driven by fundamental (supply/demand) and cyclical factors (macro) tied to the business cycle and the economic activity, in addition to other exogenous market events such as geopolitical risk and weather events. These various factors can sometimes morph into a jump risk (tail risk), especially if the market event is significant enough and unanticipated. The short duration of these options offers more flexibility to target a specific market event.
Examples of economic data releases:
ISM manufacturing index
Central bank announcements
GDP growth
Unemployment rate
Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index
Consumer confidence, etc.
Example 1: Using Crude Oil Weekly options for directional trade on the ISM
A trader expects oil prices to rise in response to the release of the ISM Manufacturing index which measures the activity of the manufacturing sector. This leading indicator is important and closely watched by the market because it is used as a proxy for the overall state of the U.S. economy. A level of 50 and above reflects economic expansion while below 50 signals a contraction. The ISM tends to move in tandem with oil prices in the long run as the result of their linkage from the demand side. Chart 1 depicts the intertwined relationship between ISM index and price changes of oil. The YoY oil prices changes are used to remove the cyclicality variations. An increase in ISM indicates a rise in manufacturing activity that requires more oil as input which would consequently lead to an increase in oil demand and prices. Additionally, this long-term linkage gives insight into the underlying momentum of the economy and oil markets and their projected trajectories. Though, this relationship can sometimes be decoupled in the short term due to other factors that affect oil prices such supply shocks (OPEC meeting, geopolitical event etc.)
Chart 1: Strong relationship between the ISM and Crude Oil
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
There’s no shortage of trade guidance / advice / market news available to provide futures traders with reasoning for a market move. Charts showing a market’s direction – or lack thereof – technical indicators, even a trader’s gut reaction can qualify as a reason to enter a position. For short-term traders, here are a few others that lately have moved the financial markets more than usual and are worthy of consideration:
Earnings reports: we’re heading into the tail end of earning season and while most of the major U.S. companies have released their quarterly reports, there are still some on the horizon that can be catalysts for jolts in the markets.
Treasury auctions: at regularly scheduled dates, the federal government auctions three types of securities: bills, notes, and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The Treasury auctions an astonishing quantity of securities. In calendar year 2003, it auctioned $3.42 trillion of securities: $2.78 trillion of bills, $616 billion of notes, and $26 billion of TIPS. Lately, the results of some of these auctions have also jostled financial markets.
Finally, take a look at one of the indicators developed in-house by the Cannon Trading team, headed by our vice president, Ilan Levy-Mayer.
Red arrows are a sell, blue arrows are a buy . Red bars are “sell territory”, green bars are “buy territory” and black bars are neutral. The chart below will show you examples of some good trades as well as not so good.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Some clearing firms are increasing the day trade margin requirements, prior to and immediately following the release.
The market exhibits serious, sharp moves during some of these events, especially if the number falls outside the expectations of the market.
The Consumer Price Index likely rose 2.9% over the year ending January, the slowest year-over-year inflation since March 2021, forecasters predict.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are watching inflation data closely to determine how soon, and how quickly, to cut the Fed’s key interest rate.
The CPI, a widely-watched gauge of inflation compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, likely rose 2.9% over 12 months ending January, the lowest in nearly three years, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal.
Forecasters are anticipating January’s report to more than wipe out an unwelcome uptick in December.
This and other inflation data over the next few months could be key in determining how soon, and how quickly, the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Important Notices – 1099 Forms, Valentines Day, Chinese New year
Trading Resource of the Week – Trade Alerts via Text/email
Hot Market of the Week – March SoyMeal
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Unleaded Gasoline Swing Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
1099 forms will be generated for all futures trading accounts held by US clients that placed any trades during the 2023 calendar year. Traders should expect to receive their 1099 forms via mail, email or through their portal in early February.
1099 forms will be provided directly from the FCM to the client.
Important Events Coming Up:
Chinese New Year
CPI
Valentines day
Earnings
Fed Speakers
More Data including PPI
Trading Resource of the Week : Real Time Email Alerts Directly to your Phone!
Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options. Regardless if you are a farmer, rancher or simply looking to trade grains and livestock futures, this guide will help you understand the ins and outs of trading and hedging using futures and options.
You will receive an email each time there is an entry or exit in a simple language along with the current price for that specific market.
A licensed series 3 broker at your fingertips
Email alerts available to US and Canada and Int’l clients
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
March soymeal resumed its slide where the chart is approaching its third downside PriceCount objective in the $340 area. It would be normal to get a reaction after completing the objective in the form of a near term consolidation or corrective trade, at least. The low percentage fourth count to $231 is not shown here for relevancy but the weekly chart shows significant downside potential remains on a longer term basis.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Although the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been on pause when it comes to interest rate hikes since the summer of 2023, economic uncertainty still looms. The Fed is reducing the size of its balance sheet by decreasing holdings of Treasury and mortgage backed securities, and it is ambiguous on when the first rate cuts will take place.
Given the uncertain economic environment, it is as important as ever to manage Treasury yield curve risk.
Treasury yields
The United States Treasury market stands as one of the largest and most crucial financial markets globally, playing a pivotal role in the functioning of the global economy. The magnitude of the U.S. Treasury market reflects its significance as a safe haven for investors, central banks and institutions seeking low-risk assets. Treasury maturities across the yield serve as an important reference point for risk management across various markets.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Traders, keep an eye out for market movement across asset classes for trading opportunities – including beyond those markets you’re typically focused on. With dozens of commodities available for trading on the major U.S. futures exchanges, there’s potential out there.
Softs:
Among the market sectors most traders follow closely, “Softs” is not high up the list. Yet similarly to other well-known futures contracts such as stock indexes, interest rate futures, energies, metals and grains, the softs category includes some of the world benchmarks for their underlying commodity, such as cocoa, coffee, orange juice and sugar.
As well, we’re seeing recent price movement in some of these commodities that can be described as exceptional. For example, it’s not hyperbole to say that the price of March cocoa has skyrocketed over the last month – from both sides of ±$4,200/ton coming into the new year to today’s $5,410/ton close. That’s a ±$12,000 per contract move (contract size: 10 metric tons). This is an all-time high for the contract.
After trading up to its own all-time highs above $4.00/lb. around mid-Nov., March orange juice sliced (pun intended) ±25% of its contract value, down below $3.00/lb. by mid-Jan with a $2.9065 close on Jan. 16. This is a ±$15,000 move. Yet this sell-off was brief as the contract then surged ±$1.00 back to today’s 10-cent up limit close of $3.9095, another ±$15,000 per contract move – in 16 trading days.
Indexes:
Telling of all-time-highs would be lacking today without mentioning the E-mini S&P 500 and E-mini Nasdaq. As of this typing the March E-mini S&P 500 futures contract is trading up ±40 points, nearly 10 points above Monday’s intraday high and ±15 points above the 5000 threshold. As well, the March E-mini NASDAQ has made a ±200-point move up to its own all-time highs at ±17,850. For the E-mini S&P 500, this marks a ±$40,000 per contract move since its last recent low back on Oct. 27.
Energy:
In a comparison of contrasts, March natural gas settled below $2.00 today to set a new life-of-contract low and furthering a ±$4,000 per contract move in less than a month – with scarcely a retort by bulls.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Week Ahead: Earnings, Heavy Fed speaker week, light data week, Thursday WASDE for the Ag traders among us.
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
McDonalds is a featured Dow stock on the earnings front this week, after todays close,
Other stocks of note this week. Eli Lilly before the open Tuesday, expectations are for a boost of 2.36 EPS per analysts on rev of 9 Billion. After Wednesday’s close Walt Disney will report , with expectations of 1.04 EPS on revenue of 23.8 billion.
In case you missed the 60 Minutes interview with Fed Chair Powell Sunday night. Here is a brief synopsis:
Noting that US growth is “solid” and the labor market “strong”, Jerome Powell said in a 60 Minutes TV interview on Sunday that the Federal Reserve “can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully.” Powell repeated comments from last week’s FOMC press conference that the Fed wants to see more progress on inflation before cutting rates. Powell downplayed chances that the Fed would begin cutting rates at its next meeting in March, saying policymakers want to be as confident as they can that inflation is on the path to the Fed’s two percent target. Yet he said “almost every single person” on the FOMC believes it would be appropriate to begin cutting rates sometime this year.
Tuesday we have 4 Fed Speakers , Mester, Kashkari, Collins, and Harker, Wednesday we have 4 again,
Kugler, Collins for a second time in the week, Barkin and Brown. On Thursday two speeches by the same governor Barkin, 3 hours apart and a lone speaker rounds out the week on Friday, Logan.
And on Thursday the USDA Supply and Demand numbers will be released for the country and the world.
Make it a solid week and always, “plan the trade and trade the plan”
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Important Notices – 1099 Forms, CME Fees, FN & LT Days
Trading Resource of the Week – Futures Hedging Self Study Guide
Hot Market of the Week – March Copper
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – ES Day Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
1099 forms will be generated for all futures trading accounts held by US clients that placed any trades during the 2023 calendar year. Traders should expect to receive their 1099 forms via mail, email or through their portal in early February.
1099 forms will be provided directly from the FCM to the client.
CME Fees Increase Update:
In a Special Executive Report released by the CME Group, it was announced that effective February 1, 2024, a number of transaction fees will see amended (increased) exchange / transaction fees.
Effective February 1, the CME Group is raising the exchange fees for a number of futures contracts.
For the COMEX metals products: Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Copper (HG) and Platinum (PL) fees are going up by 5 cents, from $1.55 to $1.60
For the COMEX E-mini metals products: miNY gold (QO), miNY silver (QI), miNY copper (QC) fees are going up by 25 cents, from $0.75 to $1.00
566 earnings reports next week
WASDE Report
Below are the contracts which are entering First Notice or Last Trading Day for the upcoming month. Be advised, for contracts that are deliverable, it is requested that all LONG positions be exited two days prior to First Notice and ALL positions be exited the day prior to Last Trading Day.
Trading Resource of the Week : Futures Hedging Self Study Guide!
Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options. Regardless if you are a farmer, rancher or simply looking to trade grains and livestock futures, this guide will help you understand the ins and outs of trading and hedging using futures and options.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
March copper completed its first upside PriceCount objective and has settled into a range bound trade. IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, it would project a possible run to the second count in the 4.03 area, consistent with a challenge of the August high.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
