Correlational Observations of Indices Market Behavior.
VIX Volatility futures Index.
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
VIX futures expiration is a monthly occurrence. The expiration is somewhat varied, the remaining 2021 schedule is included below, typically, middle of the month on Wednesday mornings. Take a look at your daily chart for any of the indices and you see the sell offs during the week of or the week prior to VIX
expiration days.
My belief is there would be a smaller probability of a correlational relationship during a Bear stock market, However, Since we are in the 12th year of a bull market, I believe the underling price action is created by portfolio managers rolling their hedges and adjusting their risk for the coming month. They often use the week prior to Short the VIX at higher prices (lower equity index prices) for the first week of the new VIX contract month as they are buying back their old contract shorts pushing the VIX prices higher, thereby pushing negative sentiment into the marketplace. If there are more extreme price movements in their favor, they will elect to have the hedges expire to cash as the contracts are financially settled.
Coincidentally, to the recent market sell off January VIX expires Wednesday morning 19th at 8:00 a.m. CDT
19 January 2022
16 February 2022
15 March 2022 (Tuesday, due to Good Friday on 15 April 2022)
20 April 2022
18 May 2022
15 June 2022
20 July 2022
17 August 2022
21 September 2022
19 October 2022
16 November 2022
21 December 2022
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Trading 201: Learn to Lose, Learn to Step Away with Profits and Losses
Important NOTE: With The Recent Volatility Across Markets, We Have Seen Margins Increase In Some Markets As Well As Wild Swings And Extreme Volatility In Many Markets.
For Some, It Can Cost The Full Account Value But Doesn’t Need To. These Volatile Times Require MAJOR Adjustments In How You Approach Trading And Risk Management. I Hope This Article Helps And I Encourage You To Utilize Our Brokers And The Knowledge They Have To Assist You..Contact Us
Many different factors go into trading. Too many to discuss efficiently in one blog post. Some relate to trading techniques, other to money management, mental aspect, risk capital and much more.
But one that sticks in my eyes is the inability to accept a loss. I see many clients who can make money and have days where they make money but when they lose, they lose much more, sometimes even losing control and losing a big portion of their account.
I am not sure how a trader can embed this into their trading mind, BUT in my opinion if you train your brain to expect losses, understand losses and that losing days will happen, you will increase your chances of surviving in this business, which in return will actually give you a chance to succeed….
Losses are part of trading and as long as your losses are part of the plan and are quantified in advance and you can adhere to your rules, then you have a chance. I think it’s easy when traders are winning…making money etc. Much harder when you lose or down. your brain starts playing tricks on you…it tells you to double down, maybe reverse even though your analysis does not say so….all of a sudden you start pulling trades out of instinct, fear rather than a calculated plan that has solid risk/ reward.
If a trader learns how to lose, to accept losses, to have realistic expectations, then he/ she can avoid having one of those terrible days when traders can lose almost of all their account.
Also, while a bit easier in my mind, a day trader should also step away when he reached a predefined profit target for the trading day. In my humble opinion, the more you day trade, the more fatigued you become and larger chances for errors.
I went into this subject and detailed day trading money management in an article I wrote a few years back for SFO magazine.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
12.20.2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading
Learn about the 25 Proven Strategies for trading options on CME Group Futures for FREE!
If you are currently trading options on futures or are interested in exploring them further, check out our newly updated trading guide, featuring 25 commonly used options strategies, including butterflies, straddles, strangles, backspread and conversions. Each strategy includes an illustration demonstrating the effect of time decay on the total option premium involved in the position.
Options on futures rank among our most versatile risk management tools, and are offered on most of our products. Whether you trade options for purposes of hedging or speculating, you can limit your risk to the amount you paid up-front for the option while maintaining your exposure to beneficial price movements. To learn more about CME Group options, you can also visit our Options page.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
10-04.2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading
“One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading.” Kenneth Reid, Ph.D
MINDING THE MIND
The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.
INTUITIVE TRADING
Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
09-27-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading
Examples of info shared intraday can be seen below in the screen shots!!
Gold Futures, Silver Futures
Trading 101: Five Fatal Flaws of Trading
Why Do Traders Lose?
From our friend Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Eliott Wave
If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.
Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, ‘How do you stop the Hand?’ Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.
Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology
If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.
How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.
Fatal Flaw No. 2 — Lack of Discipline
When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.
To have a FREE trial to the ALGOS shown in the chart, including the diamonds,click here.
Good Trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
3-08-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Day Trading 101: Tight Stops? Wide Stops? Which One Should I Use?
Entry signals are very important but just as important if not more is trade management.
By: Ilan Levy-Mayer, Cannon Trading Commodities Broker & VP
This article was published on FinanceMagnates.com back in April but is definitely a timeless article.
Today I decided to touch more on an educational feature rather than provide a certain market outlook. Many of my clients and blog readers know that when it comes to short term trading I am a fan of adjusting your trading technique/ game plan according to your assessment of the type of trading day that is developing in front of you.
Many new and advanced traders spend HOURS on looking for entry signals. Back testing historical data, creating algorithms to use and much more. I know. I am one of these traders.
Trade management consists of many factors. Some are psychological and some are more mathematical and many are in between. Some of the basic elements of trade management before even entering the trade are: What will my stop loss be**? will I use a stop loss**? What will my target be? will I use a target or just trail the trade if it goes my way?
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
