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Iran & The Markets PLUS: March Dollar Index, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on March 4th, 2026

Posted on by Cannon Operations
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Iran & The Markets

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— April (#GC)

 4780.13 4944.47 5169.33 5333.67 5558.53

Silver (SI)

— Mar. (#SI)

 70.59 76.66 84.13 90.20 97.68

Crude Oil (CL)

— April. (#CL)

 66.59 70.33 74.16 77.90 81.73

 Mar. Bonds (ZB)

— Mar. (#ZB)

 116 116 20/32 117 4/32 117 24/32 118 8/32

Equities get legs on back-to-back days.

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After a strong case that can be made for the S&P index completing the Elliot Wave 5th wave that began in November, the 6750 .00 price level has, so far, proven to be resilient. In the face of global uncertainty, it seems inertia has levitated the index just when it looked like the price was going to breakdown and violate the 200 day moving average on a closing basis in the mid 6700’s.

On each of the past two days, the index has rallied off it’s early session lows, flirting with the MA.

Crude Oil and energy by-products on a run to the upside

As of March 3, 2026,

The Strait of Hormuz is currently in a state of de facto closure. While it remains technically and legally open as an international waterway, it is effectively impassable for most commercial shipping due to extreme security risks and the withdrawal of insurance coverage.

On Truth Social, Pres. Trump recently addressed this “If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.

No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH — More actions to come,” in a retort to the IRGC threatening to attack any ship in the strait, hours before.

Current Status & Conflicting Claims

  • Iran’s Position: Senior officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially declared the strait “closed” on March 2, 2026. They have issued radio warnings stating they will “set ablaze” any ship attempting to cross.
  • U.S. Position: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to maintain that the strait is not closed and remains a protected international waterway.
  • Operational Reality: Despite the legal dispute, maritime traffic has slowed to a crawl. Major shipping firms like Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and MSC have suspended all transits through the region to protect their crews and vessels.

Key Factors Driving the Disruption

  • Insurance Withdrawal: Most maritime insurers have withdrawn war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf, making it economically unviable for ship owners to enter the area.
  • Physical Attacks: Several tankers have reportedly been struck or damaged by Iranian fire and drone attacks over the past few days, leading to a “critical” risk assessment for the region.
  • Global Impact: Approximately 20% of global oil and gas supply passes through this chokepoint. The current disruption has caused a sharp spike in energy prices, with Brent crude opening significantly higher this week.
  • Diplomatic Pressure: China, the largest importer of oil passing through the strait, is reportedly pressuring Iran to keep the waterway open to safeguard its energy security.

Response:

OPEC’s main response so far has been to signal a modest production increase while publicly downplaying panic about supply, even as members leave room to adjust if the crisis worsens.

Production decisions

  • OPEC+ has agreed to boost output quotas by about 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, a slightly larger hike than the earlier plan of roughly 137,000 bpd.
  • The group frames this as a continuation of its gradual unwinding of past cuts, not an emergency surge, and says it retains “flexibility” to change the pace depending on market conditions.

Official messaging

  • In public statements and leaks via delegates, OPEC+ cites a “steady” global economic outlook and “healthy” market fundamentals, avoiding direct reference to the Iran war even though the timing is clearly linked.
  • Key Gulf producers have warned privately that military action against Iran could push prices above 100 dollars, signaling to Washington and others that the conflict poses serious risks despite the small quota hike.

Constraints and limits

  • Analysts note that only a few members (mainly Saudi Arabia and the UAE) hold significant spare capacity, so any OPEC+ increase beyond a couple of hundred thousand bpd would be hard to deliver in practice.
  • Several experts argue the announced 206,000 bpd increase cannot fully offset a prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, since the main bottleneck is now logistics and transit risk rather than wellhead production.

Practical behavior by key members

  • Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE had already been nudging exports higher in the run‑up to and immediately after the strikes, anticipating tighter balances and higher prices.
  • Russia and other members in the voluntary “V8” subgroup joined the announced adjustment, signaling a coordinated move to show responsiveness without flooding the market.​

Plan your trades and trade your plans

Cannon Edge for March 4th
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Introducing Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot Above

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change

  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows

  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

March Dollar Index

The March US Dollar Index has broken out above the February highs and activated upside PriceCount objectives while also negating the remaining unmet downside counts. The chart is completing its first objective to the 99.67 area. From here, the rally will have to contend with the fall highs but further strength would project a possible run to the second count in the 101.20 area.

FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 4th, 2026
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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)
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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Iran, Energy, Grain, Oil, Fertilizer; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 24th, 2025

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Iran

iran

Two-day Fed Chair Powell congressional testimony (historically more volatility on day 1) starting tomorrow!

Video below on U.S. Strikes Iran: Oil, Fertilizer &

Market Fallout Analysis:

Description: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, reports live from the trading floor following a major U.S. military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In this special June 23 market update, we break down the strike’s implications for:

  • Oil markets and Strait of Hormuz risks
  • Fertilizer supply chains under threat
  • Grain and energy prices in early trading
  • Potential geopolitical escalation—and how traders are reacting
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July Class III Milk

July class III milk continues to slide and has negated the remaining unmet upside PriceCount near 23 cents (not shown for presentation purposes) with the trade below the late April reactionary low. At this point, the chart would need to violate the contract low before it could take aim at the third downside count to the 16.89 area.
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

Daily Levels for June 24th, 2025
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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)
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Find us on Trustpilot
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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Iran, Rollover, Bitcoin, July Unleaded; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures the week of June 16th, 2025

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1246

  • The Week Ahead – Israel – Iran, Rollover and Juneteenth

  • Futures 102 – Why Trade Bitcoin Futures?

  • Hot Market of the Week – August Unleaded

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Live Cattle Swing Trading System

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

iran

Iran

Can the market withstand the civil unrest planned for this weekend in our country? How about the situation in the Middle East with Israel striking Iran nuclear facilities? Stay tuned…

Equity Rollover, FOMC, Juneteenth Holiday and the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere!

Rollover

Roll the Equity Index contracts to September (U) for Monday trading.

Roll your equity index contracts to September (U) e.g., ESU25 or EPU25, also this week, due to the Juneteenth holiday, some markets will have reduced hours and others will be closed.

Reduced hours include the Equities, Metals, Energies. Since Juneteenth falls on a Thursday, the regularly scheduled EIA Weekly Natural Gas storage report will be released a day earlier: Wed. at the same time as the FOMC rate announcement. 1PM CT.

Remember that current market drivers for Equities are hard data on Jobs, Inflation, Trump tweets and Geopolitics, clearly the Israel/Iran conflict jumps to the top of the list here.

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of the Israel/Iran conflict, The FRB, U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals.

Therefore, increased volatility expectations with periodic choppiness as the administration Vs the Courts seem to also be in the middle innings of their tariff battle.

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Lennar Corp
  • Tue. Jabil Inc
  • Wed. Korn Ferry
  • Thu. Empire LTD
  • Fri. Accenture, Kroger (impending strike in California)

FED SPEECHES: (all time CDT)

  • Mon.     FED
  • Tues.     Black OUT
  • Wed.     FOMC Rate Decision 1:00pm CT Powell@1:30 pm CT
  • Thu.      Quiet
  • Fri.       Quiet

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. NY Empire State Manufacturing index,
  • Tue. Retail Sales, RedBook, Capacity Utilization, Business inventories, NAHB Housing market Index
  • Wed. Building Permits, EIA Crude oil stocks, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage @ 1:00 pm CT FOMC Rate decision @ 1:00 pmCT, FOMC Economic Projections,
  • Thur. JUNETEENTH Natl Holiday
  • Fri. Philly Fed, CB Leading indicators
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Why Trade Bitcoin Futures?

Watch Video Now 
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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

August Unleaded

August unleaded gasoline accelerated to the topside and satisfied the first upside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF the chart can sustain further strength, the second count would project a possible run to the 2.40 area which would represent a new contract high.
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Live Cattle Lee Swing Trading System

Markets Traded:   LE – Live Cattle

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $15,000

Developer Fee per contract: $25.00 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More
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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE

Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

The returns for trading systems listed throughout this website are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real-time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data (backadjusted).

Please read carefully the CFTC required disclaimer regarding hypothetical results below. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.

IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for June 16th, 2025
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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Call Now

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RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.