Iran & The Markets PLUS: March Dollar Index, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on March 4th, 2026

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Iran & The Markets

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— April (#GC)

4780.13 4944.47 5169.33 5333.67 5558.53

Silver (SI)

— Mar. (#SI)

70.59 76.66 84.13 90.20 97.68

Crude Oil (CL)

— April. (#CL)

66.59 70.33 74.16 77.90 81.73

 Mar. Bonds (ZB)

— Mar. (#ZB)

116 116 20/32 117 4/32 117 24/32 118 8/32

Equities get legs on back-to-back days.

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After a strong case that can be made for the S&P index completing the Elliot Wave 5th wave that began in November, the 6750 .00 price level has, so far, proven to be resilient. In the face of global uncertainty, it seems inertia has levitated the index just when it looked like the price was going to breakdown and violate the 200 day moving average on a closing basis in the mid 6700’s.

On each of the past two days, the index has rallied off it’s early session lows, flirting with the MA.

Crude Oil and energy by-products on a run to the upside

As of March 3, 2026,

The Strait of Hormuz is currently in a state of de facto closure. While it remains technically and legally open as an international waterway, it is effectively impassable for most commercial shipping due to extreme security risks and the withdrawal of insurance coverage.

On Truth Social, Pres. Trump recently addressed this “If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.

No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH — More actions to come,” in a retort to the IRGC threatening to attack any ship in the strait, hours before.

Current Status & Conflicting Claims

  • Iran’s Position: Senior officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially declared the strait “closed” on March 2, 2026. They have issued radio warnings stating they will “set ablaze” any ship attempting to cross.
  • U.S. Position: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to maintain that the strait is not closed and remains a protected international waterway.
  • Operational Reality: Despite the legal dispute, maritime traffic has slowed to a crawl. Major shipping firms like Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and MSC have suspended all transits through the region to protect their crews and vessels.

Key Factors Driving the Disruption

  • Insurance Withdrawal: Most maritime insurers have withdrawn war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf, making it economically unviable for ship owners to enter the area.
  • Physical Attacks: Several tankers have reportedly been struck or damaged by Iranian fire and drone attacks over the past few days, leading to a “critical” risk assessment for the region.
  • Global Impact: Approximately 20% of global oil and gas supply passes through this chokepoint. The current disruption has caused a sharp spike in energy prices, with Brent crude opening significantly higher this week.
  • Diplomatic Pressure: China, the largest importer of oil passing through the strait, is reportedly pressuring Iran to keep the waterway open to safeguard its energy security.

Response:

OPEC’s main response so far has been to signal a modest production increase while publicly downplaying panic about supply, even as members leave room to adjust if the crisis worsens.

Production decisions

  • OPEC+ has agreed to boost output quotas by about 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, a slightly larger hike than the earlier plan of roughly 137,000 bpd.
  • The group frames this as a continuation of its gradual unwinding of past cuts, not an emergency surge, and says it retains “flexibility” to change the pace depending on market conditions.

Official messaging

  • In public statements and leaks via delegates, OPEC+ cites a “steady” global economic outlook and “healthy” market fundamentals, avoiding direct reference to the Iran war even though the timing is clearly linked.
  • Key Gulf producers have warned privately that military action against Iran could push prices above 100 dollars, signaling to Washington and others that the conflict poses serious risks despite the small quota hike.

Constraints and limits

  • Analysts note that only a few members (mainly Saudi Arabia and the UAE) hold significant spare capacity, so any OPEC+ increase beyond a couple of hundred thousand bpd would be hard to deliver in practice.
  • Several experts argue the announced 206,000 bpd increase cannot fully offset a prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, since the main bottleneck is now logistics and transit risk rather than wellhead production.

Practical behavior by key members

  • Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE had already been nudging exports higher in the run‑up to and immediately after the strikes, anticipating tighter balances and higher prices.
  • Russia and other members in the voluntary “V8” subgroup joined the announced adjustment, signaling a coordinated move to show responsiveness without flooding the market.​

Plan your trades and trade your plans

Cannon Edge for March 4th

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Introducing Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot Above

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change

  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows

  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

March Dollar Index

The March US Dollar Index has broken out above the February highs and activated upside PriceCount objectives while also negating the remaining unmet downside counts. The chart is completing its first objective to the 99.67 area. From here, the rally will have to contend with the fall highs but further strength would project a possible run to the second count in the 101.20 area.

FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 4th, 2026

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Economic Reports

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All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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The Week Ahead: 10 Fed Speeches PLUS: State of the Union address Tuesday, Tradingview Indicators, May Soybeans, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures the Week of February 23rd, 2026

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1279

  • The Week Ahead – Iran Deadline, State of Union, Fed Speeches

  • Futures 101 – Trading Signals AVAILABLE on TradingView!

  • Cannon Edge – Your Futures trading Map for the week ahead!

  • Hot Market of the Week – May Soybeans

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ Day Trading System

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— April (#GC)

4956.43 5035.97 5078.83 5158.37 5201.23

Silver (SI)

— Mar. (#SI)

74.72 79.47 82.03 86.77 89.33

Crude Oil (CL)

— April. (#CL)

65.19 65.79 66.41 67.01 67.63

 Mar. Bonds (ZB)

— Mar. (#ZB)

116 18/32 117 117 15/32 117 29/32 118 12/32

What Futures Traders Should Watch This Week

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

fed

Shutdown? 10 Fed Speeches, including State of The Union

The Stalemate on Capitol Hill festers, how long will the “essential” employees go without pay before the safety of our air traffic system falters? 10 fed speeches for the market to digest. Speaking of digesting, some investors may need antacid while others will be celebrating like a tailgate party at the national championship game.

Tuesday, President Trump will be presenting the State of the Union Address to the Congress divided. Bring your popcorn.

Whether the event is positive or negative will be provided by the evening session, real time, tune into your trading platforms to view any potential fireworks.  Re: the Fed, of note, there will be 10 Fed speakers during daytime trading hours throughout the week. (see below for times)

We’ll see you next week! Please enjoy a safe and memorable weekend.

Earnings Next Week:

·        Mon. Dominion Resources

·        Tue. Home Depot, Realty Income, American Tower

·        Wed. Nvidia, HSBC Holdings, TJX Companies, Lowe’s

·        Thu.  Salesforce, Intuit, Dell, Vistra

·        Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES: (all times CST)

·        Mon.  Waller 7:00am

·        Tues.  Goolsbee 7:00 am, Bostic 8:00, Collins 8:00, Waller 8:15, Cook 8:30

·        Wed. Barkin 8:45 am, Musalem 12:20

·        Thu. Bowman 9:00 am

·        Fri.  Jefferson 11:00 am

Econ Data: (all times CST)

·        Mon. Natl Activity Index, Factory Orders, Dallas Fed

·        Tue. Redbook YoY, Case Shiller, Consumer Conf, Dallas Fed svcs,

·        Wed. EIA Crude stocks.

·        Thu. Jobless claims, Nat Gas Stocks,

·        Fri. Core PPI, CHGO PMI, Construction Spending, Baker Hughes Rig count

 Unlock Your Edge with Premium TradingView Indicators 

Ready to level up your trading game? Our proprietary indicator suite is now available on TradingView—designed for traders who want clarity, precision, and confidence.

✅ 5 custom-built studies powered by mathematical algorithms

✅ Works on any market, any timeframe

✅ Includes early trend and counter-trend signals

✅ Plug-and-play setup—no coding required

✅ Full access to concept explanations and usage tips

Whether you’re day trading or swing trading, these tools can help you spot high-probability setups and avoid common traps – an example of the way signals look below!

 Try them FREE and see why serious traders trust our edge.

·     SIGN UP HERE FOR 3 WEEK FREE TRIAL. 

WATCH VIDEO BELOW BY CLICKING ON THE IMAGE!

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Introducing Cannon Edge — Your Daily Futures Snapshot

Cannon Edge is our new daily feature designed to give traders a fast, actionable overview of key futures markets. Each post delivers:

  • Current price and daily % change

  • 30‑day and 52‑week highs/lows

  • PROPRIETARY Short‑term and long‑term trend signals

  • Coverage across equity indices, metals, energies, currencies, and ags

Whether you’re scanning for breakout setups, trend reversals, or just staying informed — Cannon Edge puts the data in your hands before the open.

Built for speed. Backed by insight. Powered by CQG.

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

 May Soybeans

 

May soybeans satisfied the second upside PriceCount objective to the $11.61 area and are now reacting with a potential key reversal to the downside. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further upside, the November highs would be the next layer of overhead to contend with before any possibility of taking aim at the third count.

 Learn more spreads and seasonal patterns in commodity futures HERE

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Abacus Raider Xtreme Trading System

System Description

Market Sector: Stock Indexes

Markets Traded:  NQ ,

System Type: Day Trading

Suggested Capital: $9,500

Developer Fee per contract: $175.00 Monthly Subscription

A day trading system currently traded by the developer who has 15+ years’ experience. It is based on the successful Abacus Raider NQ system but expanded significantly to generate an average of 15-25 trades a month.

By utilizing negative correlations between positions, a low level of capital requirement is retained but with greatly increased profit potential over time.

All trades are strictly limited to a duration of only a few minutes to minimize risk and provide an unparalleled risk/reward profile. The system is available in the NQ market only (no MNQ).

Get Started

Learn More

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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

System Trades Disclosure:

System Description

“System Description” is based upon information obtained from specific system marketing documents, system developers and/or system vendors themselves. While the information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy.

Actual Monthly Performance

The table and charts represent the monthly/quarterly/annual summation of actual trades based on system-specified contract(s) executed through Striker Securities, Inc. using the referenced trading system or system vendor for the stated time period. Commissions and monthly vendor fees are deducted from the tabulation. Results are based on 1 contract.

If a client trades 2 contracts his gain or loss is twice as displayed (and so on). This table is presented for information purposes only and is not a solicitation for the referenced system or vendor. The purpose of this information is for clients to compare their brokerage statements to what is displayed on Striker’s site. Striker as a matter of policy has no ownership with the referenced system or vendor or any other trading system or vendor.

Past trade history may not be indicative of future results. The results indicated here may or may not be typical of the performance of this system and, ALTHOUGH WE BELIEVE THIS INFORMATION TO BE ACCURATE, CANNON TRADING COMPANY MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE.

This is not the only trading system that Striker executes for its clients. Potential traders should carefully investigate, evaluate and compare trading systems before investing capital. Some or all trading systems may involve an inappropriate level of risk for potential traders. It is the nature of commodity trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss.

In opening an account through CANNON TRADING COMPANY, Customer acknowledges and agrees that he/she will rely solely upon the information that CANNON TRADING COMPANYprovides to you. Thus, all prior third-party materials provided are superseded by the information and disclosures provided by CANNON TRADING COMPANY.

Important Information About this Trading System Analysis

Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance are based on actual trading unless otherwise specified. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, developer fees, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system.

While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy as they results are key punched and subject to human error. Performance information is not the performance of a single account, but a compilation of several accounts over time, and is based on the physical trading ticket.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND USED BY CURRENT CLIENTS TO AUDIT THEIR STATEMENTS TO STRIKER SITE. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future.

This trading system, like any other, may involve an inappropriate level of risk for prospective investors. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. Prior to purchasing or leasing a trading system from this or any other system vendor or investing in a trading system with a registered commodity trading representative, investors need to carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for them in light of their own specific financial condition.

In some cases, futures accounts are subject to substantial charges for commission, management, incentive or advisory fees. It may be necessary for accounts subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. In addition, one should carefully study the accompanying prospectus, account forms, disclosure documents and/or risk disclosure statements required by the CFTC or NFA, which are provided directly by the system vendor and/or CTA’s.

The information contained in this report is provided with the objective of “standardizing” trading systems measurements, and it is intended for educational /informational purposes only. All information is offered with the understanding that an investor considering purchasing or leasing a system must carry out his/her own research and due diligence in deciding whether to purchase or lease any trading system noted within or without this report. This report does not constitute a solicitation to purchase or invest in any trading system which may be mentioned herein.

CANNON TRADING COMPANY AND STRIKER SECURITES, INC. MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY OTHER TRADING SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE TO ANY TRADING SYSTEM.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”. A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you.

You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position. If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Daily Levels for Feb. 23rd, 2026

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Significant Surge? 113^26 Target Looms as Treasury Notes Eye Bullish Breakout, Micro Grains

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Trump Speaks Tomorrow

During Market Hours!

+

Treasury Notes, Micro Grains

treasury notes

 

Tomorrow should be another volatile day!

With Trump speaking, Fed speaker, ADP weekly claims and crude oil inventories – we suspect the current volatility will continue.

On a different note – MICRO GRAINS are available

MICRO GRAINS

micro grains 3

After the first three weeks of trading, we are approaching just under a half million Micro Grains contracts traded for Micro Corn, Micro Soybean, Micro Soybean Oil, Micro Soybean Meal, and Micro Wheat, as well as some other quick hits below.

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Try MICRO Grains, grain futures and many other futures with our REALTIME state of the art FREE platform!

FREE DEMO HERE

June 10 Year Treasury Notes

June 10 year treasury notes satisfied a first upside PriceCount objective last month and spent time consolidating with a sideways trade. Now, the chart is attempting to resume its rally where new sustained highs would project a possible run to the second count in the 113^26 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for April 2nd, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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