Technical Analysis Weekly Market Update
By Eli Levy, Senior Analyst
Jeff DeGraff of Renaissance Macro had what I think was the cleanest framing of where this market sits as we close out April: we’re still dancing, but we’re staying in close proximity to the door. The tape is the dominant factor, and the tape is moving in the right direction — that keeps DeGraff constructive.
But RenMac’s market cycle clock is sitting in what has historically been the worst zone for forward S&P 500 returns, and his bubble indicator on semiconductors is still flashing. He also reminded viewers that when an index doubles within a two-year window, there’s a very high probability of a 30%+ correction in the following six months.
S&P 500/Nasdaq
The rest of the week was, frankly, euphoric — April was the best month for the S&P 500 since November 2020, the Nasdaq 100 had its best month since October 2002, and the Nasdaq Composite had its best April on record. We’ve rallied roughly 14% off the late-March lows, driven by the part of the story you actually want driving it: earnings.
Q1 Growth
Q1 EPS growth is tracking at 28.8% versus a 14% expectation — better than a double. Of the 315 S&P names reported, 72% beat top line, 81% beat bottom line, revenue growth at 11.2%, tech earnings growth in the 40s. The hyperscaler CapEx number — roughly $700 billion for the year — was confirmed and extended into 2027.
SOX
SOX printed a fresh all-time high; IGV is now Tom Lee’s top software pick. But the median S&P constituent is still 13% below its 52-week high; chip space monthly moves were parabolic (Intel +114%, Astera +78%, AMD +74%); SPX is sitting ~5.5% above its 50-DMA. Don’t fight the tape. But stay close to the door.
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