Corn, Soybean, Copper, Crude Oil; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 31st, 2025

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Corn

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements

By Mark O’ Brien, Senior Broker

corn

General:

The Federal Reserve held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting today but faced rare dissents from two officials seeking an immediate cut. Officials maintained their benchmark policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. Dissent came from two Fed governors and marks the first meeting since 2020 in which more than one Fed official voted differently than chair Powell, and the first since 1993 in which more than one board governor dissented.

Grains: Soybean, Corn

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell for the fourth consecutive session today, dragged down by favorable weather across the U.S. Midwest and sluggish export demand, analysts said. Weighing on prices were forecasts for cooler temperatures and periodic rainfall in the U.S. Midwest, bolstering expectations for big U.S. soy and corn harvests. Prior to tomorrow’s First Notice Day for the contract, August futures touched $9.77 3/4 per bushel, its lowest price of the year. Sept. corn futures matched yesterday’s intraday low of $3.87 3/4 per bushel, nearly a 2-year low.

Energy: Crude Oil

Crude futures rose for the third day, buoyed by concerns U.S. sanctions could reduce flows of Russian crude, optimism over trade deals such as those with the EU and Japan.

Focus ahead will be on the weekend meeting where OPEC+ will determine September output levels. The September West Texas futures contract on the NYMEX traded above $70/barrel for the first time since June 23, a ±$5.00/barrel in three trading sessions, equal to a $5,000 per contract move.

Metals: Copper

Last week, copper futures hit a new record high with the front month September contract trading to $5.9585/lb. Today, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation ordering 50% tariffs on certain copper imports, citing national security. However, the levies applied only to semi-finished products, such as copper pipes and wires and so-called derivate products such as pipe fittings and cables. It excluded refined materials such as copper ores and concentrates. Reacting to the anticipated limited impact on the base metal, September copper futures plunged over $1.20/lb. to below $4.60/lb. – a ±19% drubbing and a ±$30,000 per contract move for the contract, the largest single-day decline since 1989.

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December Corn

December Corn is testing support against the contract low and key reversal. If violated, new sustained lows would project a potential slide to the third PriceCount objective to the $3.88 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 31st, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Crude Oil, The Dollar, FOMC, September KC Wheat, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Crucial Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 30th, 2025

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Dollar Strength, Crude Oil Rally’s hard, FOMC tomorrow

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

crude oil

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting tomorrow, July 30, 2025. Market analysts and interest rate traders currently assign a very high probability—over 95%- a pause, with no rate hike or cut anticipated at this meeting.

Economists are expecting the first look at US 2Q 2025 GDP to show the economy grew by +2.4% on quarter over quarter terms, if realized that would be up from the final 1Q report -0.5% contraction. The advanced 2Q 2025 chain weighted price index is expected up +2.3%, and compares with the final 1Q report, up +3.8%. The data will be released at 7:30 am CT Wednesday morning.

The Crude market rally’s hard today on news Trump threatens 100% tariff on China if it continues to buy Russian crude oil. Front month September +$2.77 as of this writing. $2700.00 per contract. Crude has rallied nearly $5.00 bbl since the opening of Sunday evenings session. Yesterday’s OPEC+ maintained its current oil output policy at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, with no changes to production plans.

The JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) emphasized the critical importance of full conformity with agreed production levels, noting uneven compliance among some members.

The US Dollar may have bottomed in the short term as the past week we have seen signs of life. A 2.5% rally from the July 1 lows. The awakening of the dollar is not bullish for our export markets.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  GDP, FOMC Rate decision, EIA Crude Stocks, Beige book

FED:  Rate decision @ 1:00pm, followed by 1:30 press conference.

Earnings:  Qualcomm, Meta, Microsoft

Tariff news:   Anything goes!

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September KC – Chicago Wheat

The September KC – Chicago wheat spread came up short of its low percentage fourth downside PriceCount objective early this month. Now, on the correction we have activated upside objectives. The first count projects a recovery to the -3 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 30th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Trade and Risk Management, September OJ, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Inspiring Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 23rd, 2025

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Risk Management

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

risk management

Trade and Risk Management

Course Overview 14 minutes

“If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure…I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I’ll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential.” – Monroe Trout, Trout Trading

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September OJ

September Orange Juice is breaking out of a multi month range trade and is activating upside PriceCounts in the process. The first possible price objective is in the 400 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 23rd, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Summer Trading, E-Mini S&P 500, December Meal V. Corn Spread, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 22nd, 2025

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Summer Trading

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

summer

Summer Trading at the Halfway Point

Today’s E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures volume clocked in at just 874,000 contracts—a level we haven’t seen in months. Summer trading often brings thinner liquidity and choppier price action, so adapting your strategy is key.

To capture steadier intraday moves, diversify into other high-liquidity markets like gold futures, crude oil, and 30-year Treasury bond futures, where volume and volatility tend to hold up better in the off-season.

Also, swapping out time-based bars for range bars or volume bars will filter out noise and highlight true buying and selling pressure, giving you cleaner signals for entries, stops, and exits.

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December Meal vs. Corn Spread – in cents/lb

The Dec Meal vs. Corn protein spread satisfied its second downside PriceCount objective to the 6.48 and is correcting higher. At this point, IF the chart can resume its break with new sustained lows, the third count would project a possible drop to the 5.05 area. While this spread is historically narrow already, a 5 cent spread is not unprecedented; we have traded at sub 3 cents in the past.

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Daily Levels for July 22nd, 2025

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Crypto, Metals, September Crude Oil; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 17th, 2025

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Crypto, Metals

Trump Vs. Powell Moving the Markets

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

crypto

As the saying goes, “You can’t fight fundamentals.” It’s the idea that even if technical analysis suggests one thing, fundamentals will override the direction of an asset’s movement. There are numerous fundamentals traders keep an eye on, like economic indicators, weather, supply and demand dynamics, the seemingly endless news and information.

One fundamental indicator taking a front seat lately is almost any time U.S. president Trump steps up to a microphone and answers questions from members of the press, particularly on the subjects of the economy, tariffs, trade agreements with other countries and the like. Possibly more than any president in recent memory, the current one has put forth statements that markets have reacted to with outsized price moves. This is not likely to change anytime soon, so day traders be on the look-out for presidential press conferences and be prepared.

Metals:

Case in point from above: August gold futures thrust up ±$50 per ounce to a $3,385.80/oz. high intraday reacting to the latest case of President Trump raising the prospect of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from office. Today the president suggested he could attempt to remove Powell “for cause,” arguing the central bank spent too much money on renovations of two historic office buildings.

Back story: The Fed board approved the construction project in 2017, and the latest renovations began three years ago. The project has faced cost overruns in part because of unforeseen construction conditions including more asbestos than anticipated, toxic contamination in the soil and a higher-than-expected water table.

Economists and financial analysts have warned that a central bank that is more responsive to short-term political demands than long-term economic stability could over time lead to significant capital flight and periods of greater economic or financial instability.

Crypto:

A series of debates starting Monday in the U.S. House of Representatives, deemed “crypto week,” caused Bitcoin futures to surge to a new all-time intraday high Monday, to $123,610, capping a nearly 15% surge over the past month.

The debates are looking at crypto-friendly legislation making its way through Congress that could ease regulatory complexity long viewed as an impediment for the industry.

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September Crude Oil

September crude oil completed its second upside PriceCount objective last month and corrected lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a potential run to the 84.43 area.

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Daily Levels for July 17th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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CPI, PPI, Crude Oil, Treasury Bonds, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 16th, 2025

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CPI Gone, PPI & Beige Book Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

cpi

  C.P.I. has come and gone

In what used to create excess volatility, the C.P.I. posted it’s numbers pre stock market opening and was met by futures market equity participants with little enthusiasm. PPI, which has always followed a day later, will be released tomorrow .

The Mini S&P had a 15 point swing in less then twenty minutes and proceeded to trade lower, slowly throughout the live session. The Mini-Nasdaq popped with a 71 point range as it too, slowly marched with little enthusiasm lower the rest of the day.

It can be said that the only thing moving the markets these days in a consistent direction has been  a focus on tariffs. Not monetary policy, not fiscal policy, as more data is released, the negative cloud over the markets had been inflation and the effects tariffs would have on inflation. The economic data is just not materializing as Tariff hawks would have been inclined to bet the farm on.

Today, major earnings were reported in the first tranche of earnings reports for Q2 from the banks   JPM, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, Citi, B of NY, State Street. Tomorrow, we continue with more large money center banks namely PNC, B of A, J & J, Gold Sachs, Morgan Stanely in addition to Alcoa, a market measure of industrial demand.

 Tomorrow: 

Econ Data:  PPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, EIA Crude Stocks, Beige book

       FED  8:15am CT Hammack, 9 am Barr, 5:30 pm Willams

Earnings: PNC, B of A, J & J, Gold Sachs, M. Stanely, Alcoa

Tariff news:  Anything goes!

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September Lumber

September lumber satisfied its second upside PriceCount objective and is correcting lower. From here, IF the chart can sustain further strength we have the ‘liberation day’ gap to aim for followed by the third count to the 714 area which would be consistent with a challenge of the contract high. The low percentage fourth count – not shown here – comes in at 836.

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Daily Levels for July 16th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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CPI Tomorrow, Crude Oil, September Silver, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 15th, 2025

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CPI Tomorrow

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

CPI

cpi

Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is poised to set the tone for equity markets—with consensus expecting only a modest month-over-month uptick in headline inflation and core readings to remain steady, any upside surprise could trigger sharp moves in stock index futures.

Against the backdrop of trading volumes that have been running at their lowest levels in over two months, thinner liquidity may magnify those swings.

Crude Oil

That makes it an ideal moment to diversify your day-trading playbook: crude oil futures still react vigorously to geopolitical headlines and inventory reports, while 30-year Treasury bond futures offer a lower-correlation alternative when equity volumes ebb.

Please see reports scheduled for tomorrow as we have plenty of Fed speakers scheduled and stock index futures will listen.

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September Silver

September silver is accelerating to the topside where the first upside PriceCount objective has been satisfied. It would be normal to get a near term reaction form this level int eh form of a consolidation or corrective trade. If the chart can sustain further strength, the second count would project a possible run to the 42.03 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 15th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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50% Copper TARIFFS, FOMC Minutes, December Corn; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 9th, 2025

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50% Copper TARIFFS & FOMC Minutes Tomorrow

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

tariff

Week after week I have included Tariff news: Anything goes! On blog and newsletter

Mid-Day Trump comments spiked, in little time, Copper Futures prices by 17%, settling down to a positive 10+% gain.

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This shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise for those paying attention back in February, President Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 25, 2025, directing the secretary of commerce to initiate a Section 232 investigation into whether copper imports into the U.S. threaten to impair national security.

This investigation will assess the national security risks related to imported copper in all its forms, including raw mined copper, copper concentrates, refined copper, copper alloys, scrap copper, and derivative products.

Within 270 days the secretary of commerce will submit a report to the president with findings and recommendations on actions to mitigate any threats, including potential tariffs, export controls, or incentives to increase domestic production.

If you would like to know more about the High Grade Copper contracts please call your broker. Of note! Today the Micro High Grade Copper contract traded over 47 thousand contracts while the full size 25000lb contract traded over 99 thousand. The overnight margin coming into today was $9900 for the Full size and $605 for the micro, soon to increase.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  FOMC Minutes 1:00 p.m. CDT, EIA Crude oil stocks,

FED: Quiet

Earnings: Quiet

Tariff news: Anything goes!

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December Corn

The December (xmas) corn resumed its slide into a new low.

We have moved to the expanded April/May leg for projecting downside PriceCounts as the formation continues to develop.

The second counts projects a possible slide to $4.08 area.

And that is December Corn for you!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 8th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Commodities and Tariffs, Crude Oil, AG & Energies, September KC Wheat; Your 6 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 8th, 2025

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Commodities Face Pivotal Tariff Week Post 4th of July

commodities

Commodities, Tariffs on the AG & Energy Markets

Description: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the post-holiday movements in the AG & Energy markets. This week’s key drivers include:

  • Crude oil volatility following OPEC’s surprise output announcement.
  • Heavy losses in corn, soybeans, and wheat tied to favorable U.S. weather.
  • Tariff countdown: U.S. trade negotiations with 18 countries near critical deadlines.
  • China’s geopolitical squeeze and strained EU-China relations.
  • Potential impact of new trade frameworks with the EU & Vietnam.

This week is shaping up to be pivotal. Will new trade deals support the commodities? Or will weather and global politics keep pressure on the markets? Don’t forget to Like, Subscribe, and turn on notifications to stay updated on key market insights.

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Sept. Kansas City Wheat

September KC wheat is testing the contract lows established in May. If this support level doesn’t hold, new sustained lows would project a slide to the second downside PriceCount objective to the $5.02 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 8th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Iran, Energy, Grain, Oil, Fertilizer; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 24th, 2025

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Iran

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Two-day Fed Chair Powell congressional testimony (historically more volatility on day 1) starting tomorrow!

Video below on U.S. Strikes Iran: Oil, Fertilizer &

Market Fallout Analysis:

Description: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, reports live from the trading floor following a major U.S. military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In this special June 23 market update, we break down the strike’s implications for:

  • Oil markets and Strait of Hormuz risks
  • Fertilizer supply chains under threat
  • Grain and energy prices in early trading
  • Potential geopolitical escalation—and how traders are reacting
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July Class III Milk

July class III milk continues to slide and has negated the remaining unmet upside PriceCount near 23 cents (not shown for presentation purposes) with the trade below the late April reactionary low. At this point, the chart would need to violate the contract low before it could take aim at the third downside count to the 16.89 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 24th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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