High-Volatility Markets! 5 Smart Moves for Confident Trading, May Soybean

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Extreme Volatility!

Volatility!

volatile

The last few weeks and especially the last few trading sessions we saw tremendous volatility across many markets.

What we witnessed last night and during today’s session reminded me of the markets when COVID first broke out and we saw limit moves across the board.

Temporarily: Due to volatility, most of our platforms now require 100% margins; even for day trading!

Here are some ideas to explore during times of volatility like these:

1.      You don’t have a crystal ball. To think you can buy an ES contract in this volatility and use a 2 point stop in hopes of making 20 points profit is a very low probability event…you would need to buy it at the PEREFECT time for this to happen. Point is, with higher volatility you need to use WIDER stops to give yourself a chance. That may mean using SMALLER trade size.

2.      If you are able to, share your read with another trader, it may provide you with a better perspective just by sharing.

3.      If you think there is room for a big move or what we call a “runner” – be prepared to for the pullbacks. Use multiple time frames to gain a better perspective and hang in there for the big move, if this is what you think can happen.

4.      If you have enough risk capital, try to use multiple contracts, example buying 2 rather than 1. Taking profit on the first part of the position will help you relax and look at what the market is really telling you rather than what you would like it to say. It helps reduce both the fear and the greed.

5.    “Plan your trade, trade your plan”

Again, these are just some short pointers, written quickly after today’s session in hopes of helping you when you face a similar situation of extreme volatility.

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May Soybeans

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May soybeans satisfied a third downside PriceCount objective on the Friday flush. It is normal for the chart to react in the form of a near term consolidation or corrective trade, at leaset. IF we can resume the break the contract low stands out as a significant support level to contend with while the low percentage fourth count remains open to the $9.16 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.
It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for April 8th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Confident Outlook for First Notice & Last Trading Days: 2 Strategic Exit Dates and a Bullish Setup for Treasury Traders

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First Notice & Last Trading Day

first notice

Below are the contracts which are entering

First Notice / Last Trading

 For April.

Be advised, for contracts that are deliverable, it is requested that all LONG positions be exited two days prior to First Notice and ALL positions be exited the day prior to Last Trading Day.

First Notice & Last Trading Day

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Try MICRO Grains, grain futures and many other futures with our REALTIME state of the art FREE platform! 

FREE DEMO HERE

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That’s all for

First Notice & Last Trading

Days

June 10 Year Treasury Notes

June 10 year treasury notes satisfied a first upside PriceCount objective last month and spent time consolidating with a sideways trade. Now, the chart is attempting to resume its rally where new sustained highs would project a possible run to the second count in the 113^26 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for April 3rd, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Significant Surge? 113^26 Target Looms as Treasury Notes Eye Bullish Breakout, Micro Grains

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Trump Speaks Tomorrow

During Market Hours!

+

Treasury Notes, Micro Grains

treasury notes

 

Tomorrow should be another volatile day!

With Trump speaking, Fed speaker, ADP weekly claims and crude oil inventories – we suspect the current volatility will continue.

On a different note – MICRO GRAINS are available

MICRO GRAINS

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After the first three weeks of trading, we are approaching just under a half million Micro Grains contracts traded for Micro Corn, Micro Soybean, Micro Soybean Oil, Micro Soybean Meal, and Micro Wheat, as well as some other quick hits below.

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Try MICRO Grains, grain futures and many other futures with our REALTIME state of the art FREE platform!

FREE DEMO HERE

June 10 Year Treasury Notes

June 10 year treasury notes satisfied a first upside PriceCount objective last month and spent time consolidating with a sideways trade. Now, the chart is attempting to resume its rally where new sustained highs would project a possible run to the second count in the 113^26 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for April 2nd, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Surging Demand: Weekly Energy Options Jump 17.8% Amid Global Trade Shakeups

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WORLDWIDE WHIRLWIND

Options

Options

Amid geopolitical and macroeconomic movements, Weekly options offer hedging opportunities

Since his inauguration on January 20, President Donald Trump has regularly made headlines for his international trade policy moves. These fluctuating tariff policies have added volatility to commodity markets, as traders strategize how to navigate uncertainty.

On Monday, March 10, Beijing implemented tariffs on multiple farm products from the U.S. Facing a 15% tariff includes chicken, wheat and corn, while soybeans, pork, beef and fruit face a 10% tariff. China is the largest overseas market for American agricultural products. As policy continues to develop, or‌ stays the same, traders can use Ag Weekly options to insulate their portfolios from uncertainty, now available every day of the trading week. Ag Weekly options hit a record in early March, with 3,730 contracts trading on March 5.

Canada planned to retaliate against President Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian exports in early March. Ontario was looking to impose a 25% surcharge on energy exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. President Trump then moved to increase Canada’s initial metals tariff to 50%, but both countries revoked these additional tariffs. To navigate world events, such as tariffs, traders continue to look to Weekly Energy options. WTI Weekly Energy options ADV in March is up 17.8% compared to February 2025, with an average of 24,222 contracts traded in March to February’s 20,562 contracts.

The Trump administration also placed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. in early March, which also applies to certain products such as nails, wires and car body and bumper stampings. The steel and aluminum tariffs of President Trump’s first term were subject to a product exclusion application process; this exemption process does not exist for the updated steel and aluminum tariffs. Metals traders can turn to Metals Weekly options to hedge risk that may come with volatility in the markets.

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May Crude Oil

May crude oil stabilized its break earlier this month and now has activated upside PriceCount objectives on the correction higher. The first count projects a possible run to the 71.12 area.

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Chart above is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normalfor the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 28th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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3 Explosive, Novel Opportunities in Bitcoin & Cocoa Futures You Can’t Miss

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1235

May Cocoa, Bitcoin Futures

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  • The Week Ahead – Inflation Data, Earnings & Housing
  • Futures 102 – Intro to Bitcoin Futures
  • Hot Market of the Week – May Cocoa

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Mini SP500 intraday System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

First week of Spring!

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

 

Where will volatility come from next week?

 

Highlights next week will include more Housing data and plenty of “Soft Data” about consumer confidence and hard data about inflation. Earnings are in the bottom of the Ninth inning, I have included below the largest cap stocks reporting next week, you will agree: these should not have much of an impact on the price of any of the indices.

Finally, the FED Speakers are back! 9 separate speeches, the times are below.

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. McCormick Spice co
  • Tue. Gamestop
  • Wed. Cintas, Paychex,inc, Dollartree
  • Thu. Lululemon
  • Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon.     Bostic 12:45 CDT, Barr 2:10 CDT,
  • Tues.     Kugler 7:40 CDT, Williams 8:05 CDT ,
  • Wed.     Kashkari 9:00 CDT, Musalem 9:10 CDT
  • Thu.      Barkin 3:30 CDT
  • Fri.       Barr 11:15 CDT, Bostic 2:30 CDT

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. Chicago Fed Nat’ l activity index, S&P Global composite PMI
  • Tue. Redbook, Case Schiller Home Price index, Consumer confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg. Index,
  • Wed. Durable Goods, EIA Crude Stocks
  • Thur. GDP Final (consensus 2.3 % ann growth rate) , Core PCE (consensus 2.7%) Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, EIA Nat Gas.
  • Fri. Core PCE M o M, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Futures 102: Introduction to Cryptocurrency futures

Course overview

Cryptocurrency futures, available at CME Group, provide market participants with multiple products for cryptocurrency risk management or market expression. Expand your understanding of the cryptocurrency markets, products, and underlying reference rates. This course covers:

 

  • Bitcoin

  • Ether
  • Micro Bitcoin

  • Micro Ether
  • Options on Bitcoin futures

  • BTIC on Cryptocurrency futures

Start FREE Course Now

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

May Cocoa

May cocoa completed its first downside PriceCount objective early this month and spent time trading sideways in a consolidation trade. Now, the chart is threatening to break down again where new sustained lows would project a possible slide to the second count in the 7130 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Abacus Momentum Trading System

System Description

Market Sector: Stock Indexes

Markets Traded:  ES ,

System Type: Day Trading

Risk per Tradevaries

Trading Rules: Not Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $19,500

System Description: 

An ES day trading system currently traded by the developer who has 15+ years’ experience. The system seeks to catch significant intra-day moves (long or short) on days when market movement is expected to be above average.

Short positions trade one contract but long positions trade two contracts to reflect a lower risk/reward profile. Correlation to the S&P500 index is very low and the system is designed to perform in both bull and bear markets. The system is robust with simple logic and averages 5-6 trades a month without the risk of overnight positions.

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$20,000

COST

Developer Fee per contract: $145.00 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More

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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”. A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you.

You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position.

If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit.

Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for March 24th, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Triple Witching Friday; Powerful Market Shift! 3 Crucial Facts About Triple Witching Friday

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Triple Witching!

triple witching

Triple Witching tomorrow!

Stock Index March contracts (i.e., the E-mini and Micro S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000.) expire Friday, March 21st (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any March futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.

Triple Witching!

FRONT MONTH IS NOW JUNE, the symbol is M25, example for MICRO mini SP is MESM25

Things to know about Triple Witching

A “triple witching,” is NOT without risk for holders of futures and futures option contracts.

A triple witching is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and index futures options that occurs four times a year.

The first triple witching of 2025 will take place this Friday. Futures Stock indices and futures Options cease to allow trading at the opening bell of the Cash Stock market and settle, NOT to the final traded price at that time but, at a fixed settlement price based on where all the stocks making up the index have opened, this becomes the cash settled price for those contracts not offset prior to the trading halt.

Triple Witching!

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Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a basket of 24 commodities spread across energy, grains, softs, livestock, industrial and precious metals. The weekly chart has developed a 2-year sideways range of trade. IF the chart can break out to the topside, there are upside PriceCount objectives in place which suggest that this index would have significant potential to run.

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Chart above is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normalfor the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 21st, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Call Now

Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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FOMC: Shocking Decision Just Sent Gold Soaring: 3 Big Reasons Why

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Market Highlights

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

The Day After FOMC

fomc

FOMC Meeting Update  

The FOMC left interest rates unchanged today.  In language newly added to its policy statement, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”  Surveys of consumers and businesses, corporate earnings, and financial markets, albeit “soft data,” have suggested that the economic ground may be shifting beneath our feet.  Last Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for March sank for the third straight month, showing sharply lower expectations for the future – regardless of respondents’ party affiliations.  Warnings have percolated from airlines and retailers, i.e. Dollar General and Walmart, about underwhelming consumer demand.  Outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas announced layoffs reached their highest levels since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was in full force — and the highest level for the month of February since 2009. That’s all for the FOMC for now.

Metals:

Gold prices edged higher to hover near all-time highs on the heels of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s post announcement press conference.

Daily Levels for March 20th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Gold Surges to All-Time Record High of $3040 – 5 Key Signals, 7 Volatility Triggers Before the FOMC Decision

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Movers & Shakers – GOLD

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

gold nugg

 

Movers and Shakers:  FOMC Meeting Tomorrow @ 1:00PM CDT

    Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely. Prepare for shocks on the tomorrow FOMC Rate decision but, more importantly, expect a roller coaster during the Chairman’s statement and Q and A 30 minutes to follow.

How gold is your portfolio? 

All time highs in Gold today. 3040.00 per troy ounce of Gold. We have all contract sizes, from 1 oz to 100 ounces of Gold.

Today was a subdued trading day for almost all of the high-volume products we trade compared to the past 30 days or so.

Waiting for FOMC rate decision?

GOLD

Here were today’s top headlines.

Updated: March 18, 2025 7:32 am

US Housing Starts and Building Permits Headline Recap

**US February Housing Starts: +11.2% to 1.501 mln units annualized rate; expected +1.0% to 1.38 mln

**US February Building Permits: -1.2% to 1.456 mln unit annualized rate; expected -2.2% to 1.45 mln

Updated: March 18, 2025 8:17 am

Federal Reserve US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Headline Recap

**Federal Reserve February US Industrial Production: +0.7%; expected +0.3%

**Federal Reserve February US Capacity Utilization: +0.5% to 78.2; expected 77.8%

**Federal Reserve January US Industrial Production revised: +0.3%; prior +0.5%

  • **Federal Reserve January US Capacity Utilization revised: 77.7%; prior 77.8%

Daily Levels for March 19th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Currency & Stock Index Futures: Avoid Costly Mistakes with these 3 Critical Deadlines

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1234

  • Rollover
  • The Week Ahead – FOMC, Housing
  • Futures 102 – Can you handle Drawdowns??
  • Hot Market of the Week – May KC/ Chi Wheat Spread
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ intraday System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

currency

Currencies Last Trading Day & Stock Index rollover

Time to start trading June Stock Index futures like MESM25 and MNQM25.

Symbol for June is M.

Monday, March 17th is Last Trading Day for all currency futures contracts, except the Canadian Dollar (Last Trading Day for the Canadian Dollar is Tuesday, March 18th). Currency futures contracts are DELIVERABLE CONTRACTS. You need to exit ALL LONG and SHORT open positions or be required to deliver or take delivery of the ACTUAL NOMINAL VALUE of the respective futures contract, i.e. $12,500 Euros, or $12,500,000 Japanese Yen. DO NOT put your account is this position. Exit all March ‘25 currency futures. Start trading currency futures with the June ’25 futures contracts.

Friday, March. 21st is Last Trading Day for March stock index futures contracts, i.e., the E-mini S&P, E-mini NASDAQ, E-mini Dow Jones and their Micro relatives. These futures contracts will halt trading at 8:30 A.M., Central Time and are cash settled, meaning any remaining open positions will be offset/settled using a to-be-determined settlement price. It is recommended that all new positions be placed in the June ‘25 futures contracts as of this Sunday night’s opening of trading. Volume in the March ‘25 contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration Friday, March. 21th.

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

FOMC Week!

Indices traders roll to June, —M25

The Senate will vote today on a continuing resolution spending bill to keep the govt. open until Sept. 30. It must be on the Presidents desk by 11:59 pm EST to avoid a shut down, This may occur during market hours or after.

More volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to the potential for tariff implementations creating uncertainty in the marketplace. Therefore, increased volatility expectations.

Highlights next week will include Housing Data as well as the Wednesday Rate decision. Earnings reports continue to dwindle with 271 total reports while we are in the top of the 9th inning of earnings season, the reports will be impacting the indices much less than in past weeks Highlighted by many Chinese corp. reports. Finally, for Indices traders, contract rollover Monday. June will become the front month. M25. If you are on the new StoneX Platform, click on your current month tab at the top of your DOM or HOT to open the menu. Then slide down to Replace, now type in EPM25 if you are trading the Mini-S&P or ENQM25 for the Mini Nasdaq.

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. Quiet
  • Wed. Tencent
  • Thu. Micron, Nike
  • Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon.     Fed Blackout period
  • Tues.     Fed Blackout Period persists
  • Wed.     Fed Rate Decision 3/19/25 Chair Powell will Speak, 30 minutes after the rate decision.
  • Thu.      Last day of Fed Blackout period
  • Fri.       Williams 8:05 am CDT

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. Empire State Mfg., NAHB Housing Market Index
  • Tue. Bldg. Permits, Housing Starts, Redbook, Industrial Production
  • Wed. EIA Crude Stocks, FOMC I.R. Decision 1:00 pm followed by Fed Presser 1:30 pm CDT
  • Thur. Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, EIA Nat Gas
  • Fri Quiet

Futures 102: System Traders: Can you handle the drawdowns?

Many investors may think, “I can handle drawdown”, but honestly you have no idea how much drawdown you can handle until you have been stuck in the eye of a number of your own personal drawdown storms.

While drawdown is a natural part of trading and investing, what does differ is how much drawdown each investor can mentally handle. As humans, we all ‘see’ the world differently. What appears as something normal to one person can appear completely disastrous to another. While a 10% portfolio drawdown could be extreme for one investor, the next investor may be able to trade through periods of 50% plus drawdown.

From the behavioral finance point of view, some of the main negative facts of the human brain related to trading are:

  1. The fact that weak traders tend to be reluctant to realize losses and quick to realize gains. They are more risk averse when dealing with profitable positions and more risk seeking when dealing with losses.
  2. The fact that weak traders make inconsistent and irrational economic decisions over the same scenario depending on how it is described.
  3. The fact that weak traders deals with positions as if they were expecting mean reversion of prices. They are expecting the price to return to a long term average. This is the principle that makes them think they are buying expensive positions on volatility breakout or trend following strategies.

It is out of the scope of this article to talk much more about this science, but I will just point that:

  1. Weak traders know nothing about behavioral finance, so they think that his gut feeling is right and base their decisions on his gut feeling.
  2. Smart traders knows about behavioral finance. A smart trader has already studied about this and trained himself to overcome this limitations.  At least they know how to deal with their brain to avoid most of the damage it can create on their trading accounts. The best traders knows even how to monetize from this herd behavior.

Are drawdown periods a bad thing?

 

In my opinion, they are not a bad thing, in fact I believe that drawdown periods are a very sane and good thing for any solid strategy. Drawdown periods are very efficient to shake out weak traders from the strategy while smarter traders can pick up their money (which is the name of the game after all).

The time that passes since the first equity high until we reach a new equity high is the drawdown period.

So a drawdown period has two dimensions:

  • The drawdown depth
  • The drawdown length

Most people mostly care about the drawdown depth as this is what is easier to see on back tests. But human the brain is much more affected by drawdown length. During live trading, it is easier to deal with a 10% drawdown for one week than with a 5% drawdown for five months.

  • Detailed statistical information about the strategy: Expected profit, expected drawdown, maximal drawdown depth and length, average win percentage, reward to risk ratio, …
  • Different scenarios and the actions to take (if any): intense and/or deep drawdown periods and what to do (or do nothing), whether to trade during Christmas time or summer time, whether to keep opened positions during weekends or not, what to do after a losing year (or do nothing), funding and withdrawing plan, …
  • A very clear worst case scenario: it is basically the “line in the sand” where we know that the strategy has lost it’s edge and something must be done (stop trading the strategy, adapting parameters, …). There are many ways to calculate it (double the max historical drawdown, using montecarlo simulations, using regression lines multiplied by x times the standard deviation on the equity curve, …). In the end it is a number. The important thing is to have it written in the trading plan.

When facing a problem that generates pain or panic such as a sudden deep drawdown, most of the time, when analyzed with rigor and care, the problem is not so important, and everything is within expected statistics. You will see that there were many periods in the past with similar characteristics.

Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

May KC – Chicago Wheat Spread

The KC-Chicago wheat spread has resumed its rally into a new high. If the chart can sustain further strength, the second upside PriceCount projects a possible run to the 32-cent area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

Intra Nasdaq

PRODUCT

Mini NASDAQ

SYSTEM TYPE

Day Trading

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$20,000

COST

USD 85 / monthly

Get Started

Learn More

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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for March 17th, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com 

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Standard and Poor 500’s Brutal 10% Drop: Is a Rebound or a Bigger Crash Coming?

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Markets Highlights

by

Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Standard and Poor 500 Futures: Market Next Move?

standard and poor 500

It was only three weeks ago that the March E-mini Standard and Poor 500 futures contract hit an all-time high.  Markets have been dealt a blow by growth and recession fears, the unpredictability of trade policy, and risks to sector-wide investment and spending.

Whether it’s a good buying opportunity or another growl towards a bear market is still up for debate, the Standard and Poor 500 index futures contract fell into correction territory yesterday, registering a decline of 10% in the span of less than a month.  While the Standard and Poor 500 futures contract trimmed some of the losses, big questions are still swirling over what lies ahead. The Trump administration is attempting to engineer a long-term structural change to the U.S. economy.  The reality of that goal is hotly debated, but it is no doubt taking a toll on the short-term animal spirits that enveloped the market since November.

Here’s a 10-point checklist that will determine the market’s future trajectory:

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Daily Levels for March 13th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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