Trading 102: Commitment of Traders Report – What Lies beneath
Commitment of Traders Report – COT
Commitment of Traders Report offers wealth of data when it comes to commodity and futures trading. You can somewhat say, this is a window into what the “big boys are doing” which is published weekly.
In this 24 page PDF booklet, Gary Kamen of Trends in Futures reviews the commitment of traders report, what it means, how traders can utilize it and much more.
Sign up and instantly download the booklet and learn about:
ES WEEKLY chart for your review. Click for larger image. New all time highs fueled by FED QE.
Next targets? Levels of support? will this past week slow price action continue or will the “speedy price action ” of weeks before return?
M S&P’s ( June mini SP 500)
4,101 OBJECTIVE has been met.
Market could have a retracement back
to 4075.00.
Next test area is 4145.00
No two Bull or Bear markets are alike. This pandemic is similar to 1918 (post WW1), which originated in China, unfortunately killing 50 million globally. The pent up demand led to the Roaring 20’s, which is the cycle we’re presently in. With the FED all in with unprecedented stimulus, we could see a 8-9% GDP number!
Q.E. is $120 billion a month, coupled
with the 3 stimulus packages and the new $2.2 trillion infrastructure in the pipeline. Also, the FED is allowing inflation to run hot, above their 2% target, using a weak US$, as its main catalyst. Lastly, the SHORT END may remain untouched for 2 years.
Eventually, the FED will lose control of the LONG END of the curve!
Future CAVEAT, is that we all know how the Roaring 20’s ended on Oct. 29, 1929.
Good Trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
4-12-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Trading 102: Tight Stops? Wide Stops? Which One Should I Use?
Entry Signals Are Very Important But Just As Important If Not More Is Trade Management.
By: Ilan Levy-Mayer, Cannon Trading Commodities Broker & VP
This article was published on FinanceMagnates.com back a couple years ago but is defintely a timeless article.
Today I decided to touch more on an educational feature rather than provide a certain market outlook. Many of my clients and blog readers know that when it comes to short term trading I am a fan of adjusting your trading technique/ game plan according to your assessment of the type of trading day that is developing in front of you.
Many new and advanced traders spend HOURS on looking for entry signals. Back testing historical data, creating algorithms to use and much more. I know. I am one of these traders.
Trade management consists of many factors. Some are psychological and some are more mathematical and many are in between. Some of the basic elements of trade management before even entering the trade are: What will my stop loss be**? will i use a stop loss**? What will my target be? will I use a target or just trail the trade if it goes my way?
The bond market, more specifically, interest rate and yield projections, have been the big force behind the moves in many other futures markets. Bonds and the U.S. dollar have been key markets to watch, regardless of whether you are trading the E-mini S&P 500, gold, crude oil or soybeans. The way “big money” flows between asset classes, the allocation of assets, as well as the hedging interests in different markets are the main forces behind most of the markets we trade here.
Good Trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
3-29-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Trading 102: Day Trading Commodities with Crude Oil Futures
Crude Oil Futures Volatility Offers A “Different Market Personality” Than Stock Index Futures. Here Is Some Of The Things You Need To Know About Day Trading Crude Oil Futures:
By: Ilan Levy-Mayer, Cannon Trading Commodities Broker & VP
Crude Oil is one of MY favorite futures market for day trading. Before I dive in and share with you how the volatility in crude oil fits my risk tolerance for day trading and provide a couple of chart examples, we should review some of the specifications of Crude Oil Futures.
Crude Oil Futures have monthly expiration. So each month we trade a different contract month, so one needs to know when is the first notice day and last trading day for crude oil futures in order to always make sure we are trading the proper month with the most liquidity and avoid any chance of getting into delivery situation.
Next is the contract size. Crude Oil futures are based on 1000 barrels. To be honest from a day trading perspective all I care is that each tick or 1 cent fluctuation is $10 against me or in my favor per contract. That means that a move from 92.94 to 92.74 = $200.
Another factor is trading hours. At the time I am sharing my thoughts with you, April 8th 2013, crude oil futures trade on the CME Globex platform and trade from 5 PM CDT until the next day at 4 PM CDT. That is 23 of straight trading hours. I definitely don’t recommend day trading this market 23 hours…but it is good to know the trading hours.
Volume in crude oil futures is pretty good to trade in my opinion. Averaging about 300,000 contracts per day.
One last pointer to touch on is the API (American Petroleum Institute) report that normally comes out Wednesday at 9:30 CDT (on short weeks, holidays etc. , this report will be pushed to Thursday at 10 AM CDT). I tell my clients that this report is way too volatile and I like to be out 5 minutes before and not resume trading 5 minutes until after the report comes out. This report by itself deserves a writing but on short, the report provides information on how our stock pile is doing ( = supply/demand) and the market will move based on the numbers versus what was expected. Again as a day trader, your main job is to know about this report, when it comes out and in my opinion stay out of the market during this time..Fill out the form below to read the full article.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
3-22-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
START TRADING June indices, June currencies. March currencies going into deliveries and March stock indices will cash settle Friday March 19th at 830 AM central time.
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!
Examples of info shared intraday can be seen below in the screen shots from this Thursday!!
Trading 102: Educational Trading Videos
by: Cannon Trading Brokers
Cannon Trading is happy to share with you a few videos focusing on trading techniques, ideas and tools you can add to your trading arsenal. In this week’s newsletter we are sharing the following 3 videos, about 5 minutes each, ready for immediate viewing on the following topics:
1. Identifying Support And Resistance Using A Line Chart.
2. Finding Levels of Support Resistance
3. Day Trading crude oil futures using fear and greed….
To view videos instantly, please fill out the form below.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
3-15-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Examples of info shared intraday can be seen below in the screen shots!!
Gold Futures, Silver Futures
Trading 101: Five Fatal Flaws of Trading
Why Do Traders Lose?
From our friend Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Eliott Wave
If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.
Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, ‘How do you stop the Hand?’ Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.
Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology
If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.
How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.
Fatal Flaw No. 2 — Lack of Discipline
When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.
To have a FREE trial to the ALGOS shown in the chart, including the diamonds,click here.
Good Trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
3-08-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Trading 101: Knowing What You Don’t Know in Trading Markets
From our friend Jim Wyckoff at JimWyckoff.com
The headline of this educational feature may be a bit confusing, but I will explain what I mean shortly. First, I want to reiterate that trading futures, stock and FOREX markets is not an easy undertaking. It disgusts me that there are a few unsavory people in our industry that portray trading as an easy, get-rich-quick scheme, or as some endeavor for which there are “secrets” to be learned from those who hold “trading secrets.”
Folks, the plain truth is that there are no trading secrets and no easy paths to quick success in trading markets. Beware of anyone who tries to tell (or sell) you such. One of the biggest obstacles to success in trading markets is a lack of knowledge and understanding of the process of trading. The “process of trading” includes understanding financial leverage, market behavior and trader psychology. Understanding the process of trading can be achieved with perseverance and a willingness to continue to learn.
It’s not coincidental that trading markets is similar to most other human endeavors: Hard work and experience are required to achieve notable success. A person who enjoys classic automobiles would not attempt to tear down and successfully rebuild an engine without having some previous experience, or without having learned about the workings of an automobile engine—including knowing about the tools involved in the operation.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
3-01-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in tradin
Trading 101: Trading Video: How I like to day-trade futures using either counter trend or trend following concepts ( or what I call simpler approach to day trading)
In This 25 Minutes Video You Will Learn The Following:
1. Possible advantages of using range bar charts over time charts for day trading
2. Trade set ups using counter trend indicators
3. Trade set ups using trend following indicators
4. The concept of price confirmation
5. Tips and insights from Ilan’s observations of different markets
6. You will be able to install the indicators/concepts mentioned and practice right away with your own demo!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
2-21-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in tradin
An interactive tutorial on the basics (and a little more) of futures trading.
Regardless if you traded before or new to the futures markets, this tutorial is nicely put together by our regulators and the CME and touches on a variety of sub topics that go into trading futures and options.
Browse through the tutorial at your leisure and at your own pace. Please call us if you have any questions about implementing your strategy or requesting a live demo or have feedback
USDA FAS ( Foreign Agriculture Service) Report came out this week. The report showed US cotton export sales for the week is the key factor for cotton traders. The export sales was up from 270,479 bales the previous week and the highest since December 17. It was also the largest export sales for 2021/2022 year.
Good Trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
2-15-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in tradin
Silver Futures Went through a wild ride this past 2 weeks ( Reddit??)
Volatility continues in Silver. We look at today’s activity as a short-covering reversal of this week’s wash-out selling spree. The price retreat found several justifications: higher equities, generally positive U.S. economic data, an upside continuation of dollar – to 2-month highs above 91.50 – and the highest US Treasury yields since last February. All these lent pressure to precious metals as traders moved risk to the attractiveness of higher returns in debt and equities
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
2-08-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in tradin
“One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading.” Kenneth Reid, Ph.D
MINDING THE MIND
The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.
INTUITIVE TRADING
Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.
For the bulls, when you’re hanging on to news from China that they’ve seen meaningful declines in crude oil stockpiles at key ports and increased refinery run rates playing catch-up to demand, that’s not a strong hand.
The new Biden Administration’s move to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline will likely elicit a muted response as its demise had been generally expected. Covid-related news continues to influence market sentiment, so the new South African variant and its impact on the global health crisis is ammunition for the bear camp. As well, last week’s Baker Hughes US oil rig count rose from 236 up to 289 rigs, within striking distance of the highest U.S. count since early May. It’s rational to view any intra-day price spikes with skepticism. Still, the bulls are not without their own home-court ammunition. Since the Nov./Dec. holidays, U.S. demand has improved and supplies have tightened per this week’s EIA report of a 9.9 million barrel inventory decline.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
2-01-2021
Weekly Levels
Reports, First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in tradin
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.