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GDP Tomorrow, Earnings Season in Full Play + Levels for April 25th
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A few tips for tomorrow:
- If you are trading stock index futures, note price action has been VERY choppy during the day session as most earnings come out after the close…
- Coffee and Coca volatility is as high as I have seen in recent months. Large intraday and overnight moves in both, as much as +/- 8% per day!
- We have GDP and home sales tomorrow.
- Big pullback in both silver and gold and the key question is: Was this profit taking/ deflation of geo political fear and GOOD entry to the long side? OR…is this the near term top for both markets??
- Corn daily chart for your review below.
Daily Levels for April 25th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Weekly Newsletter: Role of Speculators, Coffee Outlook & Trading Levels for April 22nd
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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1190
In this issue:
- Important Notices – Israel, Iran, PCE Report & More
- Futures 101 – The Role of Speculators in Futures Trading
- Hot Market of the Week – July Coffee
- Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ intraday System
- Trading Levels for Next Week
- Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
- The situation in the Middle East will loom over the markets next week. More on that below.
- Keep an eye on these potential futures market movers:
- It was hardly unexpected, but Israel’s missile strike on Iran Friday may foreshadow a dangerous series of tit-for-tat retaliation between the Middle East powers – and unsettle world markets. At the same time, the limited scale of the attack and Iran’s muted response appears so far to signal a successful effort by diplomats who have been working to avert all-out war.
- At the outset of Israel’s offensive last night, volatility amplified in key futures markets – stock indexes (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq), currencies, energies (crude oil), metals (gold), financials (30-yr. bonds, 10-yr. notes). Into late evening and on into today, there has been a virtual across-the-board drop-off in the inflated price fluctuation seen when news broke of the military action.
- GDP and PMI along with homes sales, durable goods and overall a packed week with economic reports.
- PCE Friday will provide additional clues as to the future of interest rates
- big earnings week MSFT, GOOG, META, XOM, Visa, TSLA
- Volatility in Cocoa and Coffee continues. Copper broke higher.
Trading Resource of the Week: Understanding the Role of Speculators
What Are Speculators?
Speculators are primary participants in the futures market. A speculator is any individual or firm that accepts risk in order to make a profit. Speculators can achieve these profits by buying low and selling high. But in the case of the futures market, they could just as easily sell first and later buy at a lower price.
Obviously, this profit objective is easier said than done. Nonetheless, speculators aiming to profit in the futures market come in a variety of types. Speculators can be individual traders, proprietary trading firms, portfolio managers, hedge funds or market makers.
Individual Traders
For individuals trading their own funds, electronic trading has helped to level the playing field by improving access to price and trade information. The speed and ease of trade execution, combined with the application of modern risk management, gives the individual trader access to markets and strategies that were once reserved for institutions.
Proprietary Trading Firms
Proprietary trading firms, also known as prop shops, profit as a direct result of their traders’ activity in the marketplace. These firms supply their traders with the education and capital required to execute a large number of trades per day. By using the capital resources of the prop shop, traders gain access to more capital than they would if they were trading on their own account. They also may have access to the same type of research and strategies developed by larger institutions.
Portfolio or Investment Managers
A portfolio or investment manager is responsible for investing or hedging the assets of a mutual fund, exchange-traded fund or closed-end fund. The portfolio manager implements the fund’s investment strategy and manages the day-to-day trading. Futures markets are often used to increase or decrease the overall market exposure of a portfolio without disrupting the delicate balance of investments that may have taken a significant effort to build.
Hedge Funds
A hedge fund is a managed portfolio of investments that uses advanced investment strategies to maximize returns, either in an absolute sense or relative to a specified market benchmark. The name hedge fund is mostly historical, as the first hedge funds tried to hedge against the risk of a bear market by shorting the market. Today, hedge funds use hundreds of different strategies in an effort to maximize returns. The diverse and highly liquid futures marketplace offer hedge funds the ability to execute large transactions and either increase or decrease the market exposure of their portfolio.
Market Makers
Market makers are trading firms that have contractually agreed to provide liquidity to the markets, continually providing both bids and offers, usually in exchange for a reduction in trading fees. Market makers are important to the trading ecosystem as they help facilitate the movement of large transactions without effecting a substantial change in price. Market makers often profit from capturing the spread, the small difference between the bid and offer prices over a large number of transactions, or by trading related futures markets that they view as being priced to provide opportunity.
Conclusion
All types of speculators bring liquidity to the market place. Providing liquidity is a crucial market function that enables individuals to easily enter or exit the market. Though speculative trading activity generates considerable liquidity, all market players benefit. In contrast to speculators who aim to profit by assuming market risk, some buyers and sellers have a vested interest in the underlying asset of each contact. These market participants aim to offset or eliminate risk and are referred to as hedgers.
- Hot Market of the Week – July Coffee
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
July Coffee
July Coffee satisfied its third upside PriceCount objective in where it would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. At this point, IF the chart can sustain additional upside we are left with thelow percentage fourth count to aim for just above $300.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
-
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
SYSTEM TYPE
Intraday
COST
USD 55 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$25,000
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Daily Levels for April 22nd 2024
Trading Reports for Next Week
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
How Important is Hedging for Farmers? + Levels for April 16th
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This week we will see a number of fed speakers,
Tomorrow
Live @ 12:15CDT Link to Discussion With Jerome Powell we are providing this link for those that will watch the market and listen simultaneously
A bit of a departure from the usual Monday blog bites. The planting season in the northern hemisphere is under way so a quick review of the importance of Hedging follows:
How Important is Hedging for Farmers?
For farmers, especially those involved in producing commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and livestock, the prices of these products can fluctuate significantly due to various factors such as weather conditions, global demand, geopolitical events, and market speculation. These fluctuations can directly impact a farmer’s profitability and financial stability. Here’s why hedging is so important:
- Price Stability: Futures trading allows farmers to lock in prices for their produce or livestock at predetermined levels, providing them with a sense of stability and predictability in their revenue streams.
- Risk Management: By hedging, farmers can protect themselves against adverse price movements. For example, if a farmer expects the price of corn to decrease before their harvest, they can take a short position in corn futures to offset potential losses.
- Budgeting and Planning: Knowing the approximate revenue from their crops or livestock enables farmers to budget effectively, plan future investments, and manage expenses with more confidence.
- Access to Capital: Having predictable revenue streams through hedging can make it easier for farmers to secure financing from lenders as they demonstrate a more stable financial outlook.
- Competitive Advantage: Farmers who hedge can often compete more effectively in the market by offering consistent pricing to buyers, thereby securing long-term contracts and relationships.
- Futures trading serves as a powerful tool for farmers to manage price risk and ensure a more stable financial outlook. By hedging their crops like wheat, corn, soybeans, and livestock, farmers can mitigate the impact of market volatility, plan their budgets effectively, and compete more confidently in the agricultural sector. Understanding and implementing various hedging strategies empower farmers to navigate unpredictable market conditions while safeguarding their profitability.
Daily Levels for April 16th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Range Bar, Volume, Renko Charts + Levels for April 12th
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Plenty of price action of the PPI report this morning!
If you are a day trader in days like today, waiting 15 minutes for the bar chart to complete may seem like an eternity…
This is when applying either RANGE bar charts or VOLUME bar charts can be handy!
When it comes to short term trading I am a fan of using volume charts, tick charts, range bar charts and Renko charts rather than the traditional time charts like the 1 minutes, 5 minutes etc.
My rule of thumb is that if you as a trader make decisions based on charts that are less than 15 minutes time frame, it may be worth your time to research, back test and do some homework as to potentially using other type of charts like volume charts , Range charts etc.
Volume charts will draw a new bar once a user defined number of contracts traded. Example mini SP 10,000 volume chart will draw a new bar once 10,000 contracts traded.
Range bar charts will draw new charts once price action has exceeded a user pre define price or ticks range. Example might be an 18 ticks range bar chart on crude oil.
While the volume charts rely ONLY on volume, the range bar charts rely ONLY on price action.
Their main advantage over traditional time charts is twofold in my opinion:
1. If the market is moving fast, reports came out or there is heavy volume in the market, the traditional 5 minute chart will need 5 minutes to complete the next bar before it provides you with a signal…if you day traded futures before you will know what 5 minutes can do….The volume charts or range bar charts in this case will complete the bars MUCH faster because there is strong price action and strong volume and will be able to provide a signal faster than the time charts.
2. On the flip side, there are times when the market is dead…low volume, sideways, choppy action. If you are using the 3 minute chart and a moving avg. cross over, you may get a signal simple because time has passed and the moving averages crossed even though the market is pretty dead….If you are using a volume chart and the market is slow…it will take a while for the bars to complete and hence it may filter out some “noise” in the market.
Daily Levels for April 12th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
CPI, FOMC Minutes + Futures Trading Levels for 04.10.2024
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CPI and FOMC minutes Tomorrow
CPI Tomorrow! The CPI will be critical to the inflation outlook for Fed policymakers.
Previous CPI reports have created velocity logic events in the stock indices at the CME.
Please read more details about velocity logic and price banding HERE.
The above reports will Bookend the FOMC minutes release @1pm CT on tomorrow.
My previous notes suggest to do the following if you are an index day trader:
Get out before the 730 AM CPI.
Wait for the smoke to clear.
Resume trading.
Look at market volume and behavior after 9:30 AM Central time to decide if and how to resume trading.
I usually stop trading and resume after 1 PM once FOMC minutes are out.
AGAIN…This is just my PERSONAL preferences…
Daily Levels for April 10th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Choppy Markets Today, (Tomorrow?) Ahead of CPI + Futures Trading Levels for 04.09.2024
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Markets Heat up MidWeek
by John Thorpe, Senior Broker
CPI Report Wednesday
The CPI report for March 2024 will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday at 7:30 a.m. CDT. As of February’s CPI report, annual inflation is 3.2%, or 3.8% excluding food and energy. That data compares with the FOMC’s annual inflation target of 2%.
What To Expect
These data set move the Equity, Bond, Metals and currency markets the most as the market drivers are directly related to what the FED will do next with Interest rates this summer. Provided inflation comes at a monthly rate close to 0.3% or lower for March, that should be sufficient for the FOMC to keep its plan to start cutting interest rates this summer. If the report shows a 0.4% monthly increase or greater, that would be a concern. It would suggest relatively high inflation readings seen in January, and to a lesser extent in February, are perhaps more of a trend. Here is your BLS CPI Data center https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Monthly inflation at or below 0.2% would generally be considered positive news, perhaps giving more conviction to rate cutting plans. Still the CPI release is just one data point that the Fed will use to assess how inflation is trending. The FOMC will also keep a close eye on the jobs market, which so far has been strong enough to enable the Fed to be patient in considering interest rate cuts. A slowdown in job growth might matter for the Fed’s plans as much as upcoming inflation data releases.
Daily Levels for April 9th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Weekly Newsletter: Notional Value, May Copper Outlook & Trading Levels for April 8th
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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1188
In this issue:
- Important Notices – Earnings Season Starts April 12th
- Trading Resource of the Week – About Contract Notional Value
- Hot Market of the Week – May Copper
- Broker’s Trading System of the Week – RBOB Swing System
- Trading Levels for Next Week
- Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
- Market Moving Data Wed. /Thur. CPI and PPI respectively , w/Jobless Claims Thur. as well
- 1 Fed discussion RE: new BASEL lll requirements Wed. AM (raises min. Cap Req from 2% to 4.5% for all banks)
- AG WASDE Thur.
- Q1 Earnings Season Begins Fri. the 12th Bank Earnings, JPM, C, WFC, BLK all report on this day.
Trading Resource of the Week : About Contract Notional Value by CMEgroup.com
Contract Unit
The contract unit is a standardized size unique to each futures contract and can be based on volume, weight, or a financial measurement, depending on the contract and the underlying product or market.
For example, a single COMEX Gold contract unit (GC) is 100 troy ounces, which is measured by weight.
A NYMEX WTI Crude Oil contract unit (CL) is 1,000 barrels of oil, measured by volume.
The E-mini S&P 500 contract unit (ES) is a financial calculation based on a fixed multiplier times the S&P 500 Index.
Contract Notional Value
Contract notional value, also known as contract value, is the financial expression of the contract unit and the current futures contract price.
Determining Notional Value
Assume a Gold futures contract is trading at price of $1,000. The notional value of the contract is calculated by multiplying the contract unit by the futures price.
Contract unit x contract price = notional value
100 (troy ounces) x $1,000 = $100,000
If WTI Crude Oil is trading at $50 dollars and the contract unit is 1000 barrels, the notional would be;
$50 x 1,000 = $50,000
Now assume E-mini S&P 500 futures are trading at 2120.00. The multiplier for this contract is $50.
$50 x 2120.00 = $106,000
- Hot Market of the Week – May Copper
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
May Copper
May copper is completing its third upside PriceCount objective that is consistent with a challenge of the contract high. It would be normal to get a reaction in the form of a near term consolidation or corrective trade, at least, from this level. From here, IF the chart can sustain further gains, we are left with the low percentage fourth upside count to the 4.94 area to aim for (not shown here for presentation purposes).
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
-
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
SYSTEM TYPE
Swing
COST
USD 160 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$25,000
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Daily Levels for April 8th 2024
Trading Reports for Next Week
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
NFP Tomorrow + Futures Trading Levels for 04.05.2024
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- NonFarm Payrolls, NFP one of the biggest data points every month tomorrow @ 7:30CDT
- Expectations are 200K added ( the market pays attention to the revisions equally)
- Manage your capital well, take on less risk than you would during normal time frames.
- 4 FED Speakers tomorrow Beginning @ 7:30AM CDT.
May Copper chart for your review below.
Daily Levels for April 5th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
First Notice, Last Trading Days + Futures Trading Levels for 04.04.2024
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Below are the contracts which are entering First Notice or Last Trading Day for the upcoming month. Be advised, for contracts that are deliverable, it is requested that all LONG positions be exited two days prior to First Notice and ALL positions be exited the day prior to Last Trading Day. If you have any questions please contact the Trade Desk
US 30 yr Bonds chart for your review below.
Plan your trade and trade your plan
Daily Levels for April 4th, 2024
Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
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