The conflict in the Middle East once again demonstrates the potency of geopolitical events in influencing commodities prices – to the degree that they can overpower other conventional fundamentals.
One notable move: on the Sunday, Oct. 7th opening of trading, Dec. gold gapped up ±$16 from its Friday $1845.2 close (and an 11-month intraday low of $1823.50) and today is flirting above $1950 per ounce.
Obviously, the most significant event in the midst of the conflict is the overnight hospital bombing in Gaza. That effectively nullified U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s week-long travels meeting with Arab leaders to try to ease tensions. Cancelled was a summit planned in Jordan on Wednesday between President Biden, King Abdullah II of Jordan, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. All this increases the prospects of a broadening of the participants in the conflict and keeping it the focal point among commodities.
What events like those in the Middle East can also do is amplify market movement established by conventional fundamentals. Futures markets already sensitive to global geopolitical events – energies, precious metals, stock indexes, interest rates in particular – can react excessively in the face of the compounding happenings going on.
Keep this mind in your trading. Be aware of the potential for expanded price ranges and sharper market turns.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Week Ahead: Fed Speakers, Housing Permits, Earnings….
By Senior Broker, John Thorpe
This is the last week for Fed policy makers to “Stir the Drink” before the communication’s blackout period that begins at midnight Saturday the 21st and runs through Nov. 2nd. the Rate decision will be announced on Nov. 1 In lieu of that, the Fed Fund futures market has been bouncing around between 80 and 93% probability of a no change decision.
There will be no less than 8 fed speakers for the remainder of this week, Wednesday will be the heavy day with 5 .
Wednesday will also feature Housing starts and permits @ 7:30 CDT, with the Beige Book @ 1PM. Earnings reports will be picking up as well with TSLA reporting after the close on Wednesday with Analysts expect the company’s Q3 2023 revenue to rise 13% year-over-year to $24.3 billion.
However, they project adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to decline by about 30% to $0.73 due to lower margins. NFLX will also be reporting after the close As a group, industry analysts expect Netflix to report third-quarter earnings of $3.49 per share (+12.6% YoY) on revenue of $8.5 billion (+9.0% YoY).
Wednesday should provide plenty of excitement for traders in the Stock Indices , Bonds and precious metals markets.
Thursday brings the Philly Fed and Jobless claims both earmarks for the Fed Folks to watch, ponder and 7;30 CDT is blast off time in the markets for these two numbers. react to. Econoday.com’s consensus is here
Existing Home sales released at 9am CDT are expected to report Year over year sales greater than -16%
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Trading oil futures, particularly crude oil futures, plays a pivotal role in the global energy market and is influenced by a multitude of factors. This article explores the dynamics of trading oil futures in the United States and delves into the impact of Middle East conflicts, with a specific focus on recent events in Israel and Gaza. These geopolitical tensions have far-reaching implications for oil futures, as the Middle East remains a crucial source of crude oil production.
Crude Oil Futures in the USA
Crude oil is a fundamental component of the global economy, and the United States, as one of the largest consumers and producers of oil, is deeply entrenched in the world of oil futures trading. Crude oil futures are standardized contracts that allow traders to buy or sell a specified amount of crude oil at a predetermined price on a future date. In the USA, these futures are primarily traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) under the ticker symbol CL.
The demand for crude oil futures in the USA is driven by various factors, including:
Global Events: Geopolitical events, especially those in oil-producing regions, have a significant impact on oil futures trading. The Middle East, being a major source of oil production, has been a focal point for oil market participants.
Supply Disruptions: The Middle East, particularly the Persian Gulf, is home to some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Ongoing conflicts in the region can disrupt oil production, leading to supply shortages. These disruptions can cause a surge in oil prices, impacting crude oil futures.
Market Sentiment: Even the perception of conflict or potential supply disruptions can drive market sentiment. Traders closely monitor developments in the Middle East, and any escalation of tensions can lead to increased speculation and higher trading volumes in crude oil futures.
OPEC and Non-OPEC Nations: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC nations in the Middle East play a pivotal role in global oil production. Geopolitical tensions can influence OPEC’s decision-making, leading to production cuts or increases, directly impacting oil futures prices.
Impact of Recent Israel-Gaza Conflict
The Israel-Gaza conflict, a long-standing and deeply rooted conflict in the Middle East, has repeatedly led to fluctuations in oil prices and, consequently, crude oil futures. Recent escalations in the region have had the following effects:
Oil Price Volatility: The Israel-Gaza conflict has added uncertainty to global oil markets, causing crude oil futures to exhibit increased volatility. Traders react to events in the Middle East by adjusting their positions in response to the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Production Risk: Israel is not a major oil producer, but it is geographically close to critical oil transit routes, such as the Suez Canal. Any disruption to these routes can have a domino effect on global oil supply, impacting crude oil futures prices.
Influence on OPEC: The Israel-Gaza conflict can exert pressure on OPEC member nations, some of which are involved in the conflict. Geopolitical considerations, including their economic and political interests, can affect OPEC’s oil production decisions.
Risk Management in Oil Futures Trading
Given the inherent volatility in oil markets, traders in crude oil futures must employ effective risk management strategies. These include:
Diversification: Traders can spread their risk by diversifying their investment portfolio, not focusing solely on crude oil futures. This can mitigate losses during periods of heightened geopolitical tensions.
Stop-Loss Orders: Setting stop-loss orders allows traders to define their maximum acceptable loss. If the market moves against them, the position is automatically closed when the stop-loss level is reached.
Fundamental Analysis: Staying informed about geopolitical events and oil market fundamentals is essential. Traders need to understand how these factors can influence oil futures prices.
Technical Analysis: Utilizing technical analysis tools can help traders identify price trends, entry and exit points, and potential price targets.
Trading crude oil futures in the USA is a complex and dynamic process that is deeply interconnected with global geopolitics. Recent events in the Middle East, especially the Israel-Gaza conflict, highlight the significant influence of geopolitical tensions on oil futures prices. Traders and investors must remain vigilant, stay informed, and employ effective risk management strategies to navigate the ever-changing landscape of crude oil futures trading. As the world continues to rely on oil as a primary energy source, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil futures remains a critical consideration in the financial markets.
Ready to start trading futures? Call
1(800)454-9572 and speak to one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and start your futures trading journey at E-Futures.com today.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
All traders will begin with a virtual account of $100,000.00 Your goal: increase the balance to as much as possible by the conclusion of the competition.
Top three traders with the highest P&L balance at the end will get a cash prize.
One winner will be chosen from the remaining participants to receive a cash prize.
The prizes to the winners shall be awarded in the form of a check (or any other form as reasonably determined by StoneX) and sent to the winner within ten business days of receiving the required tax documentation.
As a trader, you will come across many factors that you must consider before entering or exiting the markets. Some of the most important aspects to look for are economic events that can move the markets drastically one way or another.
There are many types of economic events including releases by a governing body, changes in sales or consumption of commodities, and increases in supply and demand. All of these can affect the markets you trade, making it important for you to know how and when these changes are happening.
In this “Trading Around Key Economic Reports” FREE Course you will learn:
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December Cotton completed its first upside PriceCount objective but to this point has not been able to extend its rally any further. Now, the chart has activated downside counts on the correction lower. The first objective projects a run to the 83.87 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
What you need to know for the last two trading days of the week
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
General:
This morning the Labor Department released data on U.S. producer prices. It showed a higher-than-expected 0.5% uptick in food and energy prices at the wholesale level. The so-called core Producer Price Index – a narrower measure that excludes food, energy and trade services – showed a 0.2% increase, which matched forecasts. Looking at the big picture, the report suggests inflation remains stubborn and the Fed will remain vigilant in it continued efforts to check the U.S. economy with care and reduce inflation.
Markets look at the PPI as a leading indicator for inflation, as it gauges a wide variety of costs for pipeline goods that feed to consumer products.
In recent days, central bank officials have indicated that they may not need to enact additional hikes as Treasury yields have risen sharply on their own, tightening financial conditions. That in turn has helped assuage market fears, leading stocks higher this week.
Tomorrow, The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its more closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which measures the prices paid by consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services.
Metals:
Trading off its near one-year lows below $1,825/ounce on Friday, Dec. Gold has raced up ±$70/ounce as the crisis in Israel / Gaza / Lebanon has intensified. This commodity futures contract will likely show to be more sensitive to the turn of events in the region than any other.
Along the same lines, from a from a commodity price influencing perspective, the fighting in Israel / Gaza / Lebanon should have a limited impact on most commodities. Any sensitivity reactions in the markets will presumably be seen in indexes (seemingly sensitive to anything), energies and some currencies. Any signs the conflict escalates to involve other notable / regional state / non-state actors, traders should anticipate increased volatility in these market sectors and approach your trading appropriately.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Tomorrow @ 7:30 CDT Producer Price Index values will be released: Producer prices in September are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month versus a 0.7 percent increase in August. The annual rate in September is seen at 1.7 percent versus August’s 1.6 percent increase. September’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen rising 0.2 percent on the month and 2.1 percent on the year versus August’s 0.2 percent on the month and 2.2 percent yearly rise.
Also tomorrow, The Fed minutes will be released @ 1:00 PM CDT: Detailing the issues of debate and consensus among policymakers, the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its latest meeting three weeks after the meeting.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Week Ahead: War, CPI, Minutes- watch your blindside
By Senior Broker, John Thorpe
Today, due to the US Holiday, bond markets and US Government offices were closed, volatility in US stocks were muted.
The surprise attack on the State of Israel and official declaration of war over the weekend has the potential to be the main driver in the direction of the equity markets forcing the inflation, deficit, jobs narrative to take a back seat. . When the bond markets open, we will get a much better idea how much as gold did reflect a moderate flight to quality in today’s trade.
Data releases this week will include PPI, CPI , Fed Minutes to be the most impactful.
Wednesday @ 7:30 CDT Producer Price Index values will be released: Producer prices in September are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month versus a 0.7 percent increase in August. The annual rate in September is seen at 1.7 percent versus August’s 1.6 percent increase. September’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen rising 0.2 percent on the month and 2.1 percent on the year versus August’s 0.2 percent on the month and 2.2 percent yearly rise.
Also on this day, The Fed minutes will be released @ 1:00 PM CDT: Detailing the issues of debate and consensus among policymakers, the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its latest meeting three weeks after the meeting.
Consumer Price Index CPI Thursday 7:30 am CDT Core prices in September are expected to hold steady at a monthly increase of 0.3 percent to match August’s 0.3 percent increase Overall prices are also expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month after August’s as-expected percent 0.6 increase which hit expectations. Annual rates, at 3.7 percent overall and 4.3 percent for the core in August, are expected 3.6 at 4.1 percent respectively.
Also on this Day and time, Jobless Claims : Jobless claims for the October 8 week are expected to come in at 209,000 versus 207,000 in the prior week.
For the Ag Sector we have the WASDE report, Thursday the 12th as well, this report is released @ 11:00 am CDT.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
All traders will begin with a virtual account of $100,000.00 Your goal: increase the balance to as much as possible by the conclusion of the competition.
Top three traders with the highest P&L balance at the end will get a cash prize.
One winner will be chosen from the remaining participants to receive a cash prize.
The prizes to the winners shall be awarded in the form of a check (or any other form as reasonably determined by StoneX) and sent to the winner within ten business days of receiving the required tax documentation.
Order Flow has been presented as a mystique to potential Traders as well as seasoned Traders. In many cases it is assumed to be an insanely difficult concept to understand. Order Flow is, at its core, the transaction between a Buyer and a Seller. As a Veteran Trader using Order Flow to base my decisions, I can say that order flow is the very core of any market.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December Corn traded to within a dime of its fourth downside PriceCount objective and it increasing appears like that was enough to satisfy the bear move. The September contract and the weekly chart each hit their counts. Now, the chart is activated upset objectives and the first Target to 4.94 has been met. If we can sustain the move and get above $5 there’s a second objective just above to aim for in the 5.03 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
What you need to know before trading futures tomorrow – October 6th 2023
by Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP
NFP is tomorrow! Non Farm Payrolls also known as employment numbers. Big report, This is a market moving event and we expect high volatility, right before, during and right after.
Crude Oil and energies trading at extreme volatility
Take a look at the 1 minute chart of the last NFP report from Sept. 1st below as well as a 15 min chart of the rest of the same session. Notice the ES (mini SP500) had a 22 point move from high to low in 45 seconds!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
