What Futures Traders Should Watch This Week – NFP, Middle East
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Friday!
There is an oft heard adage this time of year. “Sell in May and go Away”
This reference to stocks may be outdated to avoid historically lower returns and volatility during the summer, returning in November. While based on long-term data (1945–2026) showing weaker performance in the May–October period, it is considered outdated as stocks often still rise during these months. In the age of AI-driven markets and global investing, this strategy is less relevant. For instance, in the last decade, the May–October period has seen a more robust 7% rise.
Risks of Timing:
Investors who sell in May risk missing out on significant gains, as markets have recorded positive summer returns in 38 of the last 50 years.
Is the smoke clearing in the Mid-East and the markets have a renewed sense of confidence?
The markets are swirling in the uncertainty of a lack of resolution in the attempted unwinding of the Iranian nuclear program.
UAE Exits OPEC May 1st
The United Arab Emirates, effective May 1st, will no longer be an OPEC member. This is important to understand the ramifications for Crude oil and the pressing realignment under foot in the middle east and the world. Here is a fine article discussing some of the ramifications of this decision by the Emiratis. “a long time coming” How to understand the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC
Don’t let your guard down just yet, the fog continues, tune into the Sunday evening markets to witness reactions to the weekend news streams, manufactured or true.
Of note next week NFP with a few key economic data points to watch. Earnings this week continues, setting up for a very interesting picture for our stock indices. Plan your trade and trade your plan!
Earnings Next Week:
· Mon. Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, Diamondback Energy, Tyson Foods
· Tue. HSBC Holdings, Advanced Micro Devices, Pfizer, Duke Energy, KKR
· Wed. Disney, Uber, Marriott, CVS, Doordash, Johnson Controls
· Thu. McDonalds, Gilead Sciences, Monster Bev, AirBnB, Motorola
· Fri. Quiet
FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)
· Mon. 11:50 am Williams
· Tues. 11:30 am Barr
· Wed. 12:00 Goolsbee, 12:30 pm Hammack
· Thu. 2:30 Williams
· Fri. 4:45 am Cook, 6:30 pm Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee and Waller
Econ Data:
· Mon. Building Permits,
· Tue. Balance of Trade, Redbook, ISM Services. PMI, JOLTS, New home sales
· ADP Weekly, API Crude Stock Change
· Wed. ADP Employment Change, Treasury Refunding, EIA Crude stocks
· Thu. Initial Jobless claims, Used Car, Construction spending, Nat Gas Stocks, consumer credit change
· Fri. NON-FARM PAYROLLS, Michigan consumer sentiment, Baker Hughs Oil Rig Count |
