Investment is a game of money of securing future money by taking a risk today. Trading therefore comes with a list of rules to play by. Commodity trading in particular offers tremendous potential for becoming a completely different asset class.
However, before investing in any kind of commodity, you must do an in depth research and also ask your broker as many questions as possible. Through this category archive we provide you as much information and valuable insights into the world of commodity trading.
We at Cannon Trading are here to help you with your commodity trading needs. You as a trader should select your commodity trading advisor only after performing a due diligence on him/her. We in fact do that for you. This way, you get only the best advice to help you with your commodity trading.
We’ve got the information that you might need at every step of commodity trading, and you’ll find it all right here in the commodity trading section of our blog. Read up, and read on to get equipped!
Tomorrow we have BOTH NFP (unemployment) followed by ISM.
Curious on an indicator that can help you with EXITS? How about using a certain indicator as a trailing stop?
Watch the latest trading videos we have posted and see if you can pick a tip or two on trading smarter!
In this week’s newsletter we are sharing four videos, each a few minutes long. The videos discuss practical tips for trading and sharing our experience with you
1. Using Bolinger Bands as a possible tool for exiting trades
2. One way you can use the Parabolics study ( also known as PSAR) to manage current positions, possibly as a trailing stop
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Tomorrow is Wednesday, the first trading day in February 2023 as well as FOMC day.
To add some fuel to the fire, we will have ADP, JOLTS and ISM PMI earlier in the day as well as crude oil numbers!!
Busy day to say the least……
The market is expecting a hike of 25 basis points.
4111 is a MAJOR resistance level for the March SP 500.
Trading on FOMC days
The following are my PERSONAL suggestions on trading during FOMC days:
· Reduce trading size
· Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
· Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 3925.00 with a stop at 3919.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 3919.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example ( consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).
· Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
· Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
· Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
· Keep in mind statement comes out at 1 Pm Central time, the news conference which dissects the language comes out 30 minutes later so the volatility window stretches out.
· Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
· Be patient and be disciplined
· If in doubt, stay out!!
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Chart below is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
A week full of potentially market-moving events, from decisions on interest rates around the world to earnings reports from the biggest U.S. companies. Markets have been veering recently on worries that the economy and corporate profits may be set for a steep drop-off, along with competing hopes that cooling inflation will get the Federal Reserve to take it easier on interest rates.
The central bank’s next decision on rates is coming Wednesday, and most investors expect it to announce an increase of just 0.25 percentage points. That would be the smallest increase since March, following a spate of hikes of 0.75 points and then a 0.50-point increase, and it would mean less added pressure on the economy. The big question is whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon will give markets what they want to hear — hints that rate hikes will end soon and rate cuts may even be possible late this year — or stick to the Fed’s mantra that it plans to keep rates higher for longer, even if a modest recession hits.
Central Banks for the U.K. and Europe are also set to announce the latest increases this week. In addition more than 100 companies are scheduled to announce this week , Tech heavy’s Apple, Amazon and Alphabet to name a few and weight the S&P 500 Index the heaviest at weeks end we have Non Farm Payrolls whose expectations are characterized here at www.econoday.com Released On 2/3/2023 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2023
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
March Sugar has revived its rally with the chart poised for potential challenge of the December highs if sustained, would project a run for the low percentage fourth upside priceCount objective near 23 cents.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Core PCE tomorrow. While not expected to move the markets like PPI and CPI, we still may see some volatility.
Personal income is expected to edge 0.2 percent higher in December with consumption expenditures expected to decrease 0.1 percent. These would compare with respective November gains of 0.4 and 0.1 percent. PCE inflation readings for December are expected at no change overall and up 0.3 percent for the core (versus respective gains of 0.1 and 0.2 percent) for annual rates of 5.0 and 4.4 percent (versus November’s 5.5 and 4.7 percent).
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Grains / Soy complex: For Soybeans and corn interests, many eyes are on South America, where because their crop year runs counter to here in the U.S., large producers like Argentina and Brazil are approaching harvest. Brazil is set for a bumper soybean crop. Argentina is experiencing drought conditions which are more adversely affecting their corn crop than their soybeans. Traders believe the soybean crop can recover more significantly from the heat and drought as compared with the corn crop.
Gold & Silver: precious metals analysts often look to ETF holdings for guidance on gold and silver futures prices, eyeing inflows and outflows for developing patterns. To wit, both gold and silver ETF holdings are sitting above their levels at the start of the year
Energy:Crude oil traded to a 4-day low this A.M. The likely catalyst could be Chinese energy demand, which seems to be linked to COVID infection rates in that country, whish show little signs of peaking yet. Support at $80.00 per barrel (March contract) looks vulnerable unless we see some confirmation of improving conditions inside China.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
November beans broke down its shelf of support this week and activated downside PriceCount objectives in the process. The first count projects a run to the $13.42 area which is consistent with a test of the October lows.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
General: Even in the face of solid COVID uncertainty for China, a persistent fear that the Fed will overtighten and that a recession is looming here in the U.S., there are some green shoots (thank you to former U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont for coining that term back in ‘91) to indicate signs of improvement for the economy, including growing sentiment that the beginning of the end for rising interest rates – and inflation – is on the horizon.
Take commodity prices for example.
Several that are in tight supply are now responding by tracking higher as a result of modest improvements in demand for their manufactured products. Copper prices – historically viewed as a leading indicator – are up over 30% in the last six months, including a ±14% increase this month so far. Silver is up ±25% since Sept. to year-ago prices around $24/oz. Crude oil has pressed upwards above ±$80/barrel, ±$10 higher this month and on par with prices from last Feb.
At the same time, these higher prices for industrial products have helped keep inflation readings – CPI, PPI notably – stubbornly high with only slight signs of downward movement in the last few releases. This is almost certainly narrowing the runway on which the “Fed Pivot” will eventually use to try landing the economy as softly as possible this year.
Energies: Heads up! As opposed to most weeks when they’re released on Wednesday and Thursday, this week’s Energy Information Agency reports on natural gas storage and crude oil supplies will be released on the same day: tomorrow at 9:30 A.M. and 10:00 A.M., Central Time, respectively. That’s natural gas storage first, followed by crude oil supplies. The Martin Luther King Day holiday effected this schedule change.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Buy May ’23 / Sell March ‘23 Feeder Cattle: Outlook
Because food (after 2-3 months, calves are weaned off milk and fed a diet of grain, hay and water) is a primary but fluctuating cost, livestock producers want to feed as many animals as possible when feed is most plentiful. So, cattle feedlot operators replenish their usually low cattle herds in October & November when corn becomes readily available at usually harvest-low prices. Those young animals will gain weight only slowly during winter and typically reach market weight in April. The result is that demand for feeders remains sluggish in March, but surges in May.
Performance Snapshot
Below is a performance snapshot of the seasonal trend for each of the last 15 years. You can find average gain/loss, best/worst equity (based on one futures spread contract), and more.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions about spreads, seasonal tendencies, options and MUCH MORE!
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Cannon Trading believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN A SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES, AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST OR WILL IN THE FUTURE ACHIEVE PROFITS UTILIZING THESE STRATEGIES. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSION AND SLIPPAGE.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
