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by John Thorpe, Senior Broker
After a record setting rally in the Cocoa market this year due to a number of factors including dry weather, disease and shuttering of processing plants due to a lack of a meaningful crop; the cocoa market reversed course today and literally melted down to a 3 week low as a shift toward wetter weather over the west African growing region pushed the Price of July Cocoa under the 21 day moving average of $101.16. Highs of $117.92 were reached 10 days ago only to see the market today close down $14.51 TO $91.73 and if you are counting, today’s move alone was a whopping $14,510.00 lower than Friday’s closing price. That’s a Weather market!
Domestically Wheat was Up 10% last week and down 2.25% today, that’s still 28 cents above it’s 21 day moving average.
Here is a worthy read about the “Nature of Weather Markets”
Historically, a pivotal timeframe for the grain futures markets has been right around the U.S. Independence Day holiday in early July. Existing price trends in the grain futures markets can be reversed or accelerated during this critical juncture of the U.S. growing season–especially for corn. Indeed, mid- to late-July typically finds the hottest weather of the year in the Corn Belt. This time period coincides with the extreme-heat-sensitive pollination stage of corn crop development. August is the most critical growing month for U.S. soybeans.
Says Conrad Leslie, the longtime and highly respected crop forecaster and market commentator: “Following the July Fourth holiday period, those who are interested in soybean and corn prices and production estimates look to the skies for the next two months for weather developments. Historical statistics indicate crops can either improve or decline….”
As an historical example, 1988 was a major drought year in the Midwest that saw corn and soybean futures prices skyrocket. It was on a Friday in July that saw corn and soybean futures prices trade sharply higher, based on ideas the hot and dry weather would continue in the U.S. Corn Belt. Then, after the close of grain futures Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service issued its 6-10 day forecast that, sure enough, called for more hot and dry weather for the Corn Belt. Corn and soybean bulls confidently headed home for the weekend.
On Monday morning, the updated weather forecasts had changed a bit, but more importantly, trader psychology had changed immensely. The drought and resulting poor U.S. corn and soybean yields had all been factored into the market with prior price gains, culminating with that Friday’s big push higher. Corn and bean markets traded limit down on Monday and recorded very sharp losses for around three days in a row.
One trader who used contrary opinion thinking during that timeframe purchased put options on corn futures that Friday in which prices were pushing higher. He made a good deal of money that next week.
Weather markets in grains many times provide a classic example of futures traders “factoring in” fundamental events well before they actually occur. For example, in the big drought year of 1988, the soybean crop was most damaged during the months of July and August. Yet, futures prices that year topped out the third week in June.
Finally, trading the grains in a summertime weather market can be just plain fun. Those traders who don’t have expensive “real-time” newswire feeds or other connections right to the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade can still log-in to the internet and go to CannonTradings website www.cannontrading.com for daily price and news updates. Or you can listen to the Midwest weather forecasts and ag news on the radio–or look at weather maps on the weather websites on the Internet.
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
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