“The Mid-Term Election & The Markets”

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

To the extent that the futures markets are taking cues from the results of yesterday’s U.S. mid-term elections, the wait will continue. As had been widely believed, Election Day did not translate to Results Day. A number of key Senate races remain uncalled – including contests in Nevada and Arizona as well as in Georgia which will go to a runoff. The shape of the House also remains uncertain.

A few notable firsts:

• Florida elected the youngest-ever House member: 25-year old Maxwell Alejandro Frost, making him the first Gen Z candidate to hold federal office.
• Summer Lee will be the first Black woman elected to Congress from Pennsylvania.
• Katie Britt will become Alabama’s first female U.S. Senator.
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders became the first elected female governor of Arkansas

Looking beyond this, it looks like the heightened volatility in stocks and the majority of other futures sectors is here for the long run. You’re seeing big price swings due to factors like the war in Ukraine, elevated oil prices, residual supply chain issues, historically elevated grain & food prices and global central banks’ efforts to tame inflation, just to name some of the more influential forces. We’ll be apprised yet again of the inflation situation here in the U.S. with tomorrow’s release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index Report, which measures the prices paid by consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services (7:30 A.M., Central Time). Due to the Veterans’ Day holiday this Friday, we’ll need to wait ‘til the following Tuesday for the corresponding Producer Price Index.

Metals notes:

Dec. Silver traded to 5-month highs yesterday trading a up to $21.72 intraday, off a ±$1.44 ($7,200) move up last Friday. Since then, Dec. gold has increased ±$90/ounce ($9,000) to above $1,700/ounce after posting 19-month lows on Nov. 3.