January 27, 2017 Newsletter

Bond Futures Outlook and an article about daytrading mind traps

January 27th 2017 - Issue #861

In This Issue

1. Daytrading Mind Traps
2. Hot Market Report: World Bond Market Yields On the Rise Again
3. Economic Calendar

1.Trading 102: Daytrading Mind traps

"One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading." Kenneth Reid, Ph.D


MINDING THE MIND


The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.


INTUITIVE TRADING


Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.


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2. World Bond Market Yields On the Rise Again

From our friend Jim Wyckoff at JimWyckoff.com

Click on image below to enlarge

bonds futures; The world's major government bond markets are seeing their yields rise (prices fall) as the first month of the new year winds down. Rising bond yields hint of rising inflationary price pressures amid ideas world economic growth prospects are on the upswing. If bond yields continue to rise in the near term, such would be a bearish development for world stock markets. Rising bond yields (rising interest rates) should at some point become a bullish element for the raw commodity sector (hard assets).. Make 2017 a great year!!

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
01/27
Fri
7:30 AM CST - Durable Goods-Ex Transportation(Dec)
7:30 AM CST - Durable Orders(Dec)
7:30 AM CST - GDP-Adv(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - GDP Deflator(Q4)
9:00 AM CST - Michigan Sentiment-Final(Jan)
2:00 PM CST - Cattle On Feed
LT: Jan Copper(CMX)
Jan Gold & Silver(CME)
Jan Platinum & Palladium(NYM)
Feb Natural Gas(NYM)
Feb 2,5,10 Year Notes Options(CBT)
Feb Bonds Options(CBT)
Feb Canola Options(CBT)
Feb Wheat Options(CBT)
Feb Corn Options(CBT)
Feb Oats Options(CBT)
Feb Rough Rice Options(CBT)
Feb Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil(CBT)
01/30
Mon
7:30 AM CST - PCE Prices-Core(Dec)
7:30 AM CST - Personal Income & Spending(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Pending Home Sales(Dec)
 
FN: Feb Natural Gas(NYM)
 
 
 
01/31
Tue
7:30 AM CST - Employment Cost Index(Q4)
8:00 AM CST - S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index(Nov)
8:45 AM CST - Chicago PMI(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - Consumer Confidence(Jan)
2:00 PM CST - Cattle
3:30 PM CST - API Energy Stocks
FN: Feb Copper(CMX)
Feb Gold & Silver(CMX)
Feb Platinum & Palladium(NYM)
LT: Jan Butter(CME)
Jan Milk(CME)
Jan Fed Funds(CME)
Feb RBOB & ULSD(NYM)
Jan Butter Options(CME)
Jan Milk Options(CME)
Jan Fed Funds Options(CME)
Feb Lumber Options(CME)
02/01
Wed
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
7:15 AM CST - ADP Employment Change(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - Construction Spending(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - ISM Index(Jan)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
1:00 PM CST - Auto & Truck Sales(Jan)
1:00 PM CST - FOMC Rate Decision(Feb)
2:00 PM CST - Dairy Products Sales
2:00 PM CST - Cotton System
2:00 PM CST - Fats & Oils
2:00 PM CST - Grain Crushings

 
 
 
02/02
Thu
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CST - Productivity-Prel(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - Unit Labor Costs(Q4)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Natural Gas Report
3:30 PM CST - Money Supply
FN: Feb RBOB & ULSD(NYM)
 
 
 
02/03
Fri
7:30 AM CST - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Nonfarm Payrolls(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Unemployment Rate(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - Factory Orders(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - ISM Services(Jan)
LT: Feb Canadian Dollar Options(CME)
Feb Currencies Options(CME)
Feb Mx Peso Options(CME)
Feb US Dollar Index Options(ICE)
Feb Live Cattle Options(CME)
Mar Cocoa Options(ICE)
02/06
Mon

 
 
 
FN: Feb Live Cattle(CME)
 
 
 
02/07
Tue
7:30 AM CST - Trade Balance(Dec)
2:00 PM CST - Consumer Credit(Dec)
3:30 PM CST - API Energy Stocks
 

 
 
 
02/08
Wed
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
9:30 AM CST - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 PM CST - Dairy Products Sales
 
LT: Mar Sugar-16(ICE)
 
 
 
02/09
Thu
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly
9:00 AM CST - Wholesale Inventories(Dec)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM CST - WASDE Report & Crop Production
3:30 PM CST - Money Supply
FN: Mar Sugar-16(ICE)
 
 
 
FN=First Notice, OE=Option Expiration, LT=Last Trade

Disclaimer: This calendar is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Moore Research Center, Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. It is meant as an alert to events that may affect trading strategies and is not necessarily complete. The release dates for certain economic reports may have been rescheduled.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!

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