"One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading." Kenneth Reid, Ph.D
MINDING THE MIND
The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.
Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.
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2. Hot Market Report: January Beans see Upside Breakout
January soybean futures on Tuesday hit a two-month high and prices this week have seen a bullish upside "breakout" from the recent sideways and choppy trading range. The bean bulls have gained good upside technical momentum this week, to strongly suggest a harvest low is in place and to also suggest prices can trend sideways, if not sideways to higher, in the coming weeks.
7:30 AM CDT - Building Permits & Housing Starts(Sep)
2:00 PM CDT - Milk Production
LT: Nov Crude Lt(NYM)
6:00 AM CDT - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
9:30 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Sales
LT: Nov Platinum Options(NYM)
Nov Palladium Options(NYM)
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly
8:00 AM CDT - FHFA Housing Price Index(Aug)
9:00 AM CDT - Existing Home Sales(Sep)
9:00 AM CDT - Leading Indicators(Sep)
9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage
2:00 PM CDT - Cold Storage
3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply
FN: Nov Crude Lt(NYM)
2:00 PM CDT - Cattle On Feed
LT: Nov 2,5,10 Year Notes Options(CBT)
Nov Bonds Options(CBT)
Nov Canola Options(CBT)
Nov Corn Options(CBT)
Nov Wheat Options(CBT)
Nov Rough Rice Options(CBT)
Nov Oats Options(CBT)
Nov Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil Options(CBT)
9:00 AM CDT - New Home Sales(Sep)
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!