January 9th, 2015 - Issue #769
In This Issue
1. TTN January February 2015 Outlook: Hamlet Economics
2. Chart of the Week: Crude Oil Bottom Near?
3. Economic Calendar
1. TTN January February 2015 Outlook: Hamlet Economics
"Brevity is the soul of wit" as Shakespeare wrote. In the context of present day monetary policy one could wish that the top caliber minds behind central bank policies had the knack for keeping their efforts clear, concise, and finite. Instead, going into the seventh year since the financial crisis erupted, the policy makers at the forefront of responding to the economic malaise are still hemming and hawing like Hamlet, offering up soliloquies when action is demanded. After waiting through most of 2014 for the Fed to wrap up its quantitative easing program and turn toward contemplating normalization, markets are now lining up to see the same show again in Europe. The drama for the global economy has only been heightened by the plays within the play Greece's latest political crisis, Russia's land grab and the resulting sanctions, Saudi Arabia's high stakes game of chicken with rival oil producers, and the two top Asian economies still struggling to restore their former glory. How these stories play out in the months ahead will ultimately help determine whether or not this period in time will be regarded as a tragedy.
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2. Chart of the Week: Crude Oil Bottom Near?
From our friend Jim Wyckoff
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at www.jimwyckoff.com click on image below to enlarge
See on the daily bar chart for February Nymex crude oil futures the steep price price downtrend in place that has driven prices to a 5.5-year low this week. The bears are in firm technical control. However, from a psychological perspective, it could well be that the crude oil market is near a bottom. From a contrarian perspective the elements are in place for a market low being close at hand. Reason: Most market prognosticators are wrong most of the time. The fact that so many analysts are now saying crude prices will dip into the $30s per barrel this year makes me suspect crude may bottom out before that--or at least not spend much time in the $30s if prices do drop to that level. By the way, if you need better methods to improve upon your selection of trades, and on entry and exit strategies?
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3. Economic Calendar
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
| 01/12 Mon |
11:00 AM CST - WASDE Report & Crop Production 11:00 AM CST - Grain Stocks 11:00 AM CST - Winter Wheat Seedings |
|
| 01/13 Tues |
9:00 AM CST - JOLTS-Job Openings(Nov) 1:00 PM CST - Treasury Budget(Dec) |
|
| 01/14 Wed |
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 7:30 AM CST - Export Prices(ex-ag) & Import Prices(ex-oil)(Dec) 7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales(Dec) 7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales(ex-auto)(Dec) 9:00 AM CST - Business Inventories(Nov) 9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:00 PM CST - Fed's Beige Book(Jan) 2:00 PM CST - Dairy Products Sales |
LT: Jan Rough Rice(CBT) Jan Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil(CBT) Feb Crude Lt Options(NYM) |
| 01/15 Thurs |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CST - Core PPI & PPI(Dec) 7:30 AM CST - Empire Manufacturing(Jan) 9:00 AM CST - Philadelphia Fed(Jan) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 11:00 AM CST - NOPA Crush 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
LT: Jan Lumber(CME) Feb Sugar-11 Options(ICE) |
| 01/16 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - Core CPI & CPI(Dec) 8:15 AM CST - Capacity Util & Industrial Prod(Dec) 8:55 AM CST - Mich Sentiment(Jan) 5:00 PM CST - Net Long-Term TIC Flows(Nov) |
FN: Jan Lumber(CME) LT: Jan Nikkei Options(CME) Jan DJIA Options(CME) Jan S&P 500 Options(CME) Jan E-Mini S&P 500 Options(CME) Jan NASDAQ Options(CME) Jan E-Mini NASDAQ Options(CME) Jan Russell Options(CME) Feb Orange Juice Options(ICE) |
| 01/19 Mon |
MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR DAY |
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
