June 21, 2013 - Issue #691

In This Issue

1. Using fear and greed indicators to day-trade crude oil
2. Hot Market Review - Gold Hits 2.5 year lows
3. Economic Calendar

1. Day Trading Commodities with Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures volatility offers a "different market personality" than stock index futures. Here is some of the things you need to know about day trading crude oil futures:

Crude Oil is one of MY favorite futures market for day trading. Before I dive in and share with you how the volatility in crude oil fits my risk tolerance for day trading and provide a couple of chart examples, we should review some of the specifications of Crude Oil Futures.  

Crude Oil Futures have monthly expiration. So each month we trade a different contract month, so one needs to know when is the first notice day and last trading day for crude oil futures in order to always make sure we are trading the proper month with the most liquidity and avoid any chance of getting into delivery situation.

Next is the contract size. Crude Oil futures are based on 100,000 barrels. To be honest from a day trading perspective all I care is that each tick or 1 cent fluctuation is $10 against me or in my favor per contract. That means that a move from 92.94 to 92.74 = $200.

Another factor is trading hours. At the time I am sharing my thoughts with you, April 8th 2013, crude oil futures trade on the CME Globex platform and trade from 5 PM CDT until the next day at 4 PM CDT. That is 23 of straight trading hours. I definitely don't recommend day trading this market 23 hours...but it is good to know the trading hours.

Volume in crude oil futures is pretty good to trade in my opinion. Averaging about 300,000 contracts per day.

One last pointer to touch on is the API (American Petroleum Institute) report that normally comes out Wednesday at 9:30 CDT (on short weeks, holidays etc. , this report will be pushed to Thursday at 10 AM CDT). I tell my clients that this report is way too volatile and I like to be out 5 minutes before and not resume trading 5 minutes until after the report comes out. This report by itself deserves a writing but on short, the report provides information on how our stock pile is doing ( = supply/demand)  and the market will move based on the numbers versus what was expected. Again as a day trader, your main job is to know about this report, when it comes out and in my opinion stay out of the market during this time....Read Full Article along with chart examples and different indicators Ilan like to use.

2. Hot Market Review - Gold Hits 2.5 year lows

Gold Hammered to 2.5-Year Low, More Major Chart Damage

From our friend Jim Wyckoff

Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at www.jimwyckoff.com click on image below to enlarge

Gold prices careened to a better-than-2.5-year low Thursday. The market place saw traders and investors in a keen "risk-off" mentality following Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve events. Fresh, serious technical damage has been inflicted in the gold to suggest prices will see still more downside price pressure to come. The next major, longer-term downside price targets are $1,227, and then at $1,100 and then at $1,027 for nearby Comex futures. August gold futures prices are in an eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls' next upside near-term price objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the May low of $1,338.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00.

3. Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.