Posted By: Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
Jump to a section in this post:
1. Market Commentary
2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000
3. Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Support and Resistance Levels – March Corn, March Wheat, Jan Beans, March Silver
5. Economic Reports for Monday, December 12, 2011
1. Market Commentary and Daily Mini S&P 500 Chart
Front month for equity indices is MARCH 2012
mini SP, mini Nasdaq, mini Russell, Mini Dow and few more are all March 2012
Symbol in most platforms for March mini SP is ESH2. Pay attention please!
AT A GLANCE: FOMC Takes No Action; Still Sees ‘Significant Risks’
The Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-setting arm of the Federal Reserve Board, left its policy options open for 2012 but took no actions Tuesday and offered an assessment of the economy that was guardedly more upbeat, but still marked by “significant downside risks.”
Nine out of 10 Fed officials voted to keep the central bank’s easy-credit policies unchanged for the second meeting in a row in what was the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year. It took place on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s 58th birthday.
Officials reiterated that short-term interest rates are likely to stay close to zero until mid-2013 at least. In their assessment of the economy, they said indicators pointed to some improvement in the U.S. jobs market.
Data since the FOMC last met at the sta! rt of November suggest the “economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth,” Fed officials said in a statement.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in November, the lowest level since March 2009, and the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has fallen recently.
Still, the Fed is concerned the U.S. economy could be hit by higher taxes and continued government layoffs next year, as well as the repercussions from the debt crisis in Europe, which has close financial and trade ties with the U.S.
The Fed is looking at revamping its communication strategy, which could be a step toward easier monetary policy. Officials are considering whether to make their internal interest-rate forecasts public. If they do this, and those forecasts suggest short-term interest rates will stay low for even longer than investors now believe, that could drive long-term rates down and be a boost to growth.
The post-! meeting statement gave no indication of the state of that debate. This suggests the Fed has left it to be resolved next year. Minutes of the meeting, due out in three weeks, might reveal more.
Prior to the meeting, few analysts expected the policymakers to introduce any new stimulus measures since its latest stimulus plan–known as Operation Twist–was disclosed less than three months ago. Under Operation Twist, the Fed will exchange $400 billion of its short-term Treasury securities for longer-dated ones.
In December, the central bank aims to purchase $45 billion worth of U.S. government debt through 13 operations and sell $52 billion via seven sales. An extra auction of about $8 billion was added this month because of a canceled sale on Nov. 30.
Operation Twist will keep the Fed’s balance sheet size steady. By purchasing longer-term Treasurys, the Fed hopes to push long-term borrowing costs lower for consumers and businesses to facilitate the economic recovery.
–U.S. stocks, which opened ! higher as positive bond auctions in Europe overshadowed a disappointing reading on domestic retail sales and as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, trimmed some gains Tuesday after the FOMC disclosed its report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47 points, or 0.4%, to 12069 in afternoon trade. The blue-chip Dow gained as much as 126 points earlier in the session, then nearly turned negative before recovering. Prior to Tuesday, the Dow had notched three straight triple-digit swings.
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index tacked on two points, or 0.1%, to 1238. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell six points, or 0.2%, to 2607.
–Treasury prices, which surged higher Tuesday after the U.S. government’s benchmark 10-year notes sale was met with the strongest demand since April last year, maintained those gains after the Fed’s policy statement turned out as expected. The strong note sale has sparked buying momentum in the market, p! aving the way for higher prices in recent trading. Benchmark 10-year n otes are up 5/32 in price to yield 1.993%–back below the much-watched 2% mark.
Earlier, U.S. Treasurys came under pressure ahead of the note auction and after some of the gloom in Europe dissipated with a couple of successful debt auctions from the region. Good news these days quickly eats into Treasurys, which continue to offer buyers some of the dingiest yields in history.
–The dollar improved modestly after Federal Reserve officials left their policy options open for 2012 but took no action Tuesday. The euro, which hit its lowest level since January 13, is quoted at $1.3067 versus the dollar, down 0.91%, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar is at 77.93, up 0.04%, versus the yen.
–Gold, which settled at a seven-month low, traded lower in electronic trading after the Fed statement. Gold for February delivery recently sold at $1,653.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the Nymex, down 0.6% from Tuesday’s settlement. Gold had held near steady earlier Tues! day, with investors focused on Europe’s debt crisis as a series of successful sovereign-debt auctions partly offset worries about potential credit-rating downgrades.
–Crude-oil futures trimmed their advance Tuesday after the FOMC sounded a tad more upbeat on the economic outlook but warned the unemployment rate is still a sore point. Oil for January delivery, which traded above $100 before the policy statement, recently traded $2.14 higher at $99.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude-oil futures had gained more than 3% after the opening of the stock market in New York Tuesday morning, as rumors of the closure of a key Middle East oil shipping channel swept through the markets.
DOW JONES COVERAGE INCLUDES:
Fed Slightly More Upbeat On US Economy; Stands Pat On Policy
ECONOMIC VIEW: The Fed Has Become Used To Speaking Clearly
WSJ: Bernanke’s Legacy At Fed: Still A Lagging Indicator
Fed Call: No ‘Twist’ Operations! Scheduled With FOMC Due
FED WATCH: Some Economists Speculate Fe d Could Trim Discount Rate
Fed Funds Traded At Effective 0.07% Dec. 12
FOMC Meeting Started At 8:30 AM Eastern Time As Scheduled – Fed
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 13, 2011 14:45 ET (19:45 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
|Contract (Dec. 2011)||SP500
(big & Mini)
(big & Mini)
(big & Mini)
|Resistance Level 3||1266.27||2357.00||12250||761.23|
|Resistance Level 2||1254.88||2336.00||12160||750.47|
|Resistance Level 1||1235.57||2297.00||12010||731.73|
|Support Level 1||1204.87||2237.00||11770||702.23|
|Support Level 2||1193.48||2216.00||11680||691.47|
|Support Level 3||1174.17||2177.00||11530||672.73|
|Contract||Feb. Gold||Dec. Euro||Jan. Crude Oil||March. Bonds|
|Resistance Level 3||1680.0||1.3395||104.94||145 26/32|
|Resistance Level 2||1680.9||1.3316||103.09||144 17/32|
|Resistance Level 1||1655.3||1.3167||101.33||143 27/32|
|Pivot Point||1656.2||1.3088||99.48||142 18/32|
|Support Level 1||1630.6||1.2939||97.72||141 28/32|
|Support Level 2||1631.5||1.2860||95.87||140 19/32|
|Support Level 3||1605.9||1.2711||94.11||139 29/32|
|Contract||March Corn||March Wheat||Jan. Beans||March. Silver|
|Resistance Level 3||610.2||622.7||1149.00||3320.7|
|Resistance Level 2||605.8||615.8||1138.00||3262.3|
|Resistance Level 1||600.2||606.9||1128.25||3162.2|
|Support Level 1||590.2||591.2||1107.5||3003.7|
|Support Level 2||585.8||584.3||1096.50||2945.3|
|Support Level 3||580.2||575.4||1086.75||2845.2|
5. Economic Reports
Crude Oil Inventories
Tresury Currency Report