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Economic Reports & Futures Levels 12.23.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday December 23, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! Weekly Market Update: Turbulence Sets Up Santa Claus Rally

The risk-off tone seen in markets last week lingered early this week with crude prices still sinking and the Russia’s situation worsening. But by midweek authorities in Moscow took dramatic action to gird the ruble while oil prices, and probably more importantly the oil related stocks were helpfully stabilizing. Heading into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting investor risk appetite appeared to be building; which was evident in narrowing junk bond spreads and the stabilization of several emerging market currencies, most notably the ruble. That afternoon the FOMC gave an upbeat assessment of the economy and replaced the “considerable time” component of its statement with a pledge to be “patient in beginning to normalize monetary policy.” This cemented expectations that Fed remains on course for a mid-2015 rate lift off. Thursday saw the S&P 500 have its best day in more than a year and the Dow surged 400 points. US Treasury yields lifted post-FOMC and the curve steepened as the long end underperformed. There was some slightly better preliminary German and Euro Zone manufacturing PMI data, and the German December ZEW survey was much better than expected, providing a slight glimmer of hope for Europe as well. Stocks put in yet another V-shaped bottom, and for the week the DJIA rose 3%, the Nasdaq added 2.4%, and the S&P500 gained 3.4%, leaving the broad index back near all-time highs.

Oil seemed to find a short-term floor this week, as WTI pivoted around $56 for most of the week after marking a fresh multi-year low below $54 on Tuesday. Brent crude notably dropped below $60 but was back above the key psychological level by week’s end. Nevertheless, crude is still on track to record its fourth consecutive weekly decline, and OPEC continues to signal it is comfortable with letting the rout run awhile longer. In public statements, Gulf OPEC members said they can wait for a long time for prices to stabilize. The Saudi Oil Minister said it would be difficult if not impossible for OPEC and Saudi Arabia to cut production, though he felt certain that the current oil market issues are “temporary” and caused in part by market speculators.

Russia entered full-blown crisis mode this week as continued oil declines kept hammering the ruble. Last week’s 100 bps rate hike did little to stem the slide in the ruble, and on Monday USD/RUB rose another 10%, to above 66. This prompted another surprise Russia Central Bank move, this time a massive 650 bps hike of its key rate to 17%. This momentarily knocked USD/RUB back down to 58, but then the pair rapidly jumped on Tuesday to as high as 78, prompting a real sense of panic. The Russian Finance Ministry intervened with some FX purchases, but more importantly threatened fresh “measures” to stabilize the ruble while also ruling out capital controls. Further interventions and news that the government and the central bank had agreed to vaguely outlined “measures” seem to have stabilized the currency around 60 to the dollar.

Note that in the search for reasons behind the chaos in Russia, more analysts are pointing to oil giant Rosneft’s sale of 625 billion rubles in new bonds last Friday – a deal worth $10.9 billion at the time – to help repay a $7 billion loan by December 21st. State banks bought the bonds, which were then deposited at the Russia Central Bank, and analysts suggest this big infusion of freshly-minted rubles was the proximate cause of the panic, aided and abetted by the continuing slide in oil.

Switzerland surprised markets on Thursday with an unscheduled policy adjustment, nudged in part by massive safe-haven flows from the Russian crisis as well as Europe’s continuing troubles. The Swiss central bank moved to negative interest rates, widening its three-month Libor band to -0.75% to +0.25% from 0.00-0.25% prior. The move to charge banks for overnight deposits should help to crimp a recent rise in the safe-haven Swiss franc, which has appreciated markedly in recent weeks amid Russia’s currency crisis and the ECB’s moves toward deflation and sovereign QE. Note that the effective date of the rate cut, January 22nd, is also the date of the next ECB policy meeting.

FedEx lost as much as 5% after missing top- and bottom-line expectations by a hair in its second quarter earnings on Wednesday morning. Oracle gained 10% on Thursday thanks to excellent guidance for third quarter and showing more evidence that its cloud strategy is working. Red Hat earnings also benefited from the industry migration toward the cloud, sending its shares up 10% on Friday.

The US Financial Stability Oversight Council voted 9-1 on Thursday to designate MetLife as a ‘systemically important’ financial institution (SIFI) on Thursday. In naming the insurance giant a potential danger to the financial system, regulators aired concerns that in a crisis, the company could be forced to dump a large amount of bonds at fire-sale prices. The council also served notice on the asset management industry, from BlackRock and Fidelity to large mutual funds or managers inside large insurance firms, warning that their potential risks to financial stability are now under close scrutiny.

Shanghai Composite trading remained a one-way street with the 4th consecutive week of solid gains, taking the mainland index to a 4-year high above 3,100. China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for December fell into contraction for the first time in 7 months at 49.5, below the 49.8 consensus, although the bulk of the decline was due to a faster rate of decrease in input and output prices. The housing market correction eased off, as November new home prices fell 0.6% against October’s drop of 0.8%. Money market rates also hit 10-month highs on short-term demand for cash ahead of upcoming IPO offerings, while offshore Yuan moved to 5-month lows on broad-based dollar strength.

In Japan, the ruling LDP party got the mandate it sought to proceed with Abenomics with an overwhelming victory in the Lower House elections on Sunday, comfortably retaining a 2/3rd supermajority. PM Abe cheered the support, pledging to continue his reforms with the focus on boosting wages in 2015. Moody’s, which recently cut Japan’s rating, acknowledged the election results were important for Japan’s credit standing. In a surprise move on Friday, the BoJ raised its assessment on industrial production, exports, and housing investment, while subsequent commentary from Governor Kuroda maintained that CPI is still on track to hit the 2% inflation target. Yen weakness associated with the post-FOMC rise in US yields was also instrumental in helping the Nikkei225 to pull out of a nose-dive and it registered a 1.4% gain for the week, as USD/JPY reclaimed some ground lost in the outside bearish reversal of last week.


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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Futures Trading Levels

Contract March 2014 SP500 Nasdaq100 Dow Jones Mini Russell Dollar Index
Resistance 3 2089.67 4329.08 18155 1213.73 90.50
Resistance 2 2082.83 4315.17 18041 1207.37 90.24
Resistance 1 2077.67 4303.83 17968 1203.03 90.10
Pivot 2070.83 4289.92 17854 1196.67 89.84
Support 1 2065.67 4278.58 17781 1192.33 89.69
Support 2 2058.83 4264.67 17667 1185.97 89.43
Support 3 2053.67 4253.33 17594 1181.63 89.29
Contract Feb. Gold Mar.Silver Feb. Crude Oil Mar. Bonds March   Euro
Resistance 3 1226.7 16.67 60.90 145 20/32 1.2323
Resistance 2 1215.2 16.42 59.71 145 7/32 1.2302
Resistance 1 1193.8 16.03 57.50 144 29/32 1.2268
Pivot 1182.3 15.78 56.31 144 16/32 1.2247
Support 1 1160.9 15.38 54.10 144 6/32 1.2213
Support 2 1149.4 15.13 52.91 143 25/32 1.2192
Support 3 1128.0 14.74 50.70 143 15/32 1.2158
Contract March Corn March Wheat Jan. Beans Jan. SoyMeal Jan. bean Oil
Resistance 3 415.0 647.8 1054.50 368.67 32.51
Resistance 2 413.8 643.4 1046.75 363.73 32.40
Resistance 1 412.8 634.6 1042.50 360.47 32.28
Pivot 411.5 630.2 1034.75 355.53 32.17
Support 1 410.5 621.3 1030.5 352.3 32.1
Support 2 409.3 616.9 1022.75 347.33 31.94
Support 3 408.3 608.1 1018.50 344.07 31.82
5. Economic Reports


All times are Eastern time Zone (EST)


Date Currency Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Graph
TueDec 23  2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.2% -0.9%
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.1%
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.1% -1.1%
USD Final GDP q/q 4.3% 3.9%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.0% 0.3%
USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 1.4% 1.4%
9:00am EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -5.8 -6.1
USD HPI m/m 0.3% 0.0%
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.5 93.8
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 461K 458K
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.6% 0.2%
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 8 4

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by
Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.


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