FOMC, Futures Levels and Economic Reports 3.19.2014
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday March 19, 2014
Hello Traders,
For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!
Current front months for active futures markets:
stock indices ( mini SP, NASDAQ, russell etc.) JUNE
Bonds/ ten years JUNE
Crude oil MAY
Natural Gas APRIL
Grains MAY
Currencies JUNE
Gold APRIL
Silver MAY
SOFTS ( coffee, Sugar etc.) MAY
Secondly, The FOMC interest rate decision is due at 14:00 ET in the US tomorrow ( Wednesday, March. 19th).
FOMC days have different characteristics than other trading days. If you have traded for a while, check your trading notes from past FOMC days that may help you prepare for tomorrow.
If you are a newcomer, take a more conservative approach and make sure you understand that the news can really move the market.
The following are suggestions on trading during FOMC days:
- Reduce trading size
- Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
- Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 1875.00 with a stop at 1869.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 1869.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example.
- Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
- Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
- Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
- Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
- This is another great example why a trading journal would be an asset, as you can go back and check your notes from previous FOMC days.
- Be patient and be disciplined
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GOOD TRADING
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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| Contract June 2014 | SP500 (big & Mini) | Nasdaq100 (big & Mini) | Dow Jones (big & Mini) | Mini Russell | Dollar Index |
| Resistance 3 | 1894.33 | 3782.58 | 16511 | 1233.07 | 79.91 |
| Resistance 2 | 1880.67 | 3742.42 | 16407 | 1217.43 | 79.79 |
| Resistance 1 | 1872.83 | 3720.33 | 16338 | 1209.07 | 79.66 |
| Pivot | 1859.17 | 3680.17 | 16234 | 1193.43 | 79.54 |
| Support 1 | 1851.33 | 3658.08 | 16165 | 1185.07 | 79.41 |
| Support 2 | 1837.67 | 3617.92 | 16061 | 1169.43 | 79.29 |
| Support 3 | 1829.83 | 3595.83 | 15992 | 1161.07 | 79.16 |
| Contract | Apr. Gold | May Silver | May Crude Oil | June Bonds | Mar. Euro |
| Resistance 3 | 1382.0 | 2179.3 | 101.07 | 134 | 1.4019 |
| Resistance 2 | 1375.0 | 2152.2 | 100.02 | 133 20/32 | 1.3980 |
| Resistance 1 | 1365.2 | 2116.8 | 99.37 | 133 12/32 | 1.3955 |
| Pivot | 1358.2 | 2089.7 | 98.32 | 133 | 1.3916 |
| Support 1 | 1348.4 | 2054.3 | 97.67 | 132 24/32 | 1.3891 |
| Support 2 | 1341.4 | 2027.2 | 96.62 | 132 12/32 | 1.3852 |
| Support 3 | 1331.6 | 1991.8 | 95.97 | 132 4/32 | 1.3827 |
| Contract | May Corn | May Wheat | May Beans | May SoyMeal | May bean Oil |
| Resistance 3 | 494.1 | 710.5 | 1438.50 | 471.23 | 42.83 |
| Resistance 2 | 490.4 | 701.5 | 1428.75 | 464.07 | 42.59 |
| Resistance 1 | 488.3 | 697.0 | 1423.50 | 459.93 | 42.43 |
| Pivot | 484.7 | 688.0 | 1413.75 | 452.77 | 42.19 |
| Support 1 | 482.6 | 683.5 | 1408.5 | 448.6 | 42.0 |
| Support 2 | 478.9 | 674.5 | 1398.75 | 441.47 | 41.79 |
| Support 3 | 476.8 | 670.0 | 1393.50 | 437.33 | 41.63 |
* The levels for stock index below are still calculated based on March contract because of volume. To get the levels for June contracts:
subtract 7 points on the SP, 6 points on the mini NASDAQ, 3 points on the mini Russell and 70 points on the mini Dow for each level.
source:http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
All times are Eastern time Zone (EST)
| Date | 4:29pm | Currency | Impact | Detail | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Graph | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WedMar 19 | Tentative | EUR | German 10-y Bond Auction | 1.64|1.1 | |||||
| 8:30am | USD | Current Account | -88B | -95B | |||||
| 10:30am | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 6.2M | ||||||
| 2:00pm | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | |||||||
| USD | FOMC Statement | ||||||||
| USD | Federal Funds Rate | <0.25% | <0.25% | ||||||
| 2:30pm | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
