FOMC Minutes & Economic Reports 11.19.2015
Posted By:- Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday November 19, 2015
For 2015 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!
: Fed Minutes from Oct 27-28 FOMC Meeting due at 14:00 ET (19:00 GMT)At its late October meeting the FOMC decided against rate liftoff again. They did, however, remove language about international developments impeding a rate hike decision after they had used worries about the global economy as an excuse to refrain from rate action in September. To help justify the decision to not raise in October, the committee noted that the pace of job gains had slowed.
The key phrase that Fed-watchers latched on to was a specific reference to the “next meeting” as being live for a rate hike decision: “In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”
Richmond Fed President Lacker maintained his dissent, first registered in September, calling for a 25 bps rate hike. The dissent keeps the pressure on the committee to move ahead with rate liftoff in December, and the minutes may indicate how much support the hawks have. In comments just this morning, Fed moderate Lockhart said he had personally been ready to raise rates in September, but ultimately decided to support the decision to keep rates on hold. In recent weeks other Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, have indicated they are open to a rate hike in December if the data continue to support such a move.
Rate hawks will be looking for indications that a growing number of FOMC members are anxious to get rate liftoff out of the way. Though the meeting came after a weak jobs report in early October, the Fed was still willing to point at the December meeting as decisive (and the strong labor report in early November could help justify action next month). Any discussion of forward guidance will likely continue to hammer the point that the impending tightening cycle will be gradual and shallow.
Any discussions about operational preparations could firm up expectations that the Fed is getting ready to hike. This might include discussion of its plans for reinvesting the significant amount of Treasury securities in the Fed portfolio that mature starting in February.
– Link to Oct policy statement:http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20151028a.htm
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|Contract Dec. 2015||SP500||Nasdaq100||Dow Jones||Mini Russell||Dollar Index|
|Contract||Dec. Gold||Dec.Silver||Jan. Crude Oil||Dec. Bonds||Dec. Euro|
|Resistance 3||1088.5||14.45||44.10||171 22/32||1.0771|
|Resistance 2||1081.6||14.33||43.38||162 28/32||1.0733|
|Resistance 1||1075.9||14.23||42.73||158 12/32||1.0695|
|Support 1||1063.3||14.01||41.36||145 2/32||1.0619|
|Support 2||1056.4||13.89||40.64||136 8/32||1.0581|
|Support 3||1050.7||13.79||39.99||131 24/32||1.0543|
|ThuNov 19||3:00am||EUR||German Buba President Weidmann Speaks|
|7:30am||EUR||ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts|
|10:00am||USD||Philly Fed Manufacturing Index||0.1||-4.5|
|USD||CB Leading Index m/m||0.5%||-0.2%|
|10:30am||USD||Natural Gas Storage||23B||49B|
|12:30pm||USD||FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks|
|4:45pm||USD||FOMC Member Fischer Speaks|
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